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Mr_Pessimistic

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Posts posted by Mr_Pessimistic

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Who needs to try and get their head around teleconnections, SSW's, effects of goings on in the Indian Oceans....I am like you....failing to interpret a simple summing up sentence:wallbash:......so to clarify GP's comment is good news for Coldies as things stand? :nea:

    Nobody knows is the correct answer. People on here fall for the same LRF nonsense every single year. Watch the Mets forecast for a MAX of 5 days ahead to get the general picture of will it likely be warm or cold, no details, and you won't dissapoint yourselves, time, and time again.

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Phase 1 is not a high amplified phased state rather the reverse. I see though you have succumbed to the idea of a 

    more amplified state going forward rather than the rinse and repeat that you were forecasting. To much faith in one 

    teleconnect can lead to failure.

    Too much faith in all of the teleconnections, and too much faith in any of the computer model output can and usually does lead to failure, however great ones knowledge. Until the knowledgeable ones on here have access to all of the data that the mo does, then it simply is not possible to accurately forecast the weather further than 3-4 days, as shown nearly every year. While the mo, with all their combined knowledge and computing power now seem to have a pretty good grasp on the general long term patterns, as shown over the last several years now. So the conclusion I made years ago, is stick with the met else you will be dissapointed time after time.

    Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Wooooow, a whole ten minutes of wet snow that didn't settle, now nothing. Those of you hoping for snow from some sort of easterly, don't kid youselfs or listen to the massive hype in the mod. There maybe a fleeting easterly as the low pulls away, but by that time pressure will be too high for any ppn. Same story as every year.

    Model Output Discussion; into 2015

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1. Depends on where any blocking establishes, & scope/longevity of this.

    2. Typical lag time from SSW to surface response is circa 3 weeks

    3. Confidence remains high in broadly W'ly regime for a good chunk of Jan

    4. Tentative signals, currently low confidence, for increased blocking late Jan

    5. Current lack of such (clear) signal in EC-EPS/EC Monthly unsurprising

    6. Any emergence of unambiguous and impending pattern change via SSW will be clearly signposted in UKMO forecasts/communication, as was case in early 2013.

    . And if the strat warming does 'propagate' down to the trop, splitting the vortex into two pieces, I fully expect us to be stuck right in the middle of where the waa forms, giving us dry boring weather under high pressure. I will be surprised if the Greenland lobe backs west enough to put us on the cold side. All happening a month later then all the forecasts predicted, as it usually seems to..
    • Like 5

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I wouldnt worry over it too much for now. :)

     

    Since this thread is the best around for the stratosphere, I cant help myself not to post 3D animations of 4 SSWs that I have made. This layout includes: 3D is the isosurface of a certain temperature (written on the bottom, usually -45C), the bottom level is 150mb geopotential height, and the middle layer is 30mb geopotential height. This is layout version 1. In the version 1.2 I will include the heart of the vortex. :) But lets leave that for another time. :)

    It is nicely seen how over the Atlantic, downward warmings really "ignite" tropospheric ridging with some delay, and how it cuts into the troposphere. :)

     

    I made the layout as a preset, so once I tweak it, I can just put in any data, and simulate any SSW since 1950s, or as far as the datasets go. :)https://db.tt/lZ0gAOWD

    https://db.tt/co8AorvK

    https://db.tt/t5PZ9bO2

    https://db.tt/y3BvBQSL

     

    And some other graphics I made today. Usually everything can be found on twitter where I stared posting a bit more recently. 

     

    xsacsd.png ffsdf.png 464.png

     

    124.png u-componentofwindisobari.png

     

    Regards

    I wouldnt worry over it too much for now. :)

     

    Since this thread is the best around for the stratosphere, I cant help myself not to post 3D animations of 4 SSWs that I have made. This layout includes: 3D is the isosurface of a certain temperature (written on the bottom, usually -45C), the bottom level is 150mb geopotential height, and the middle layer is 30mb geopotential height. This is layout version 1. In the version 1.2 I will include the heart of the vortex. :) But lets leave that for another time. :)

    It is nicely seen how over the Atlantic, downward warmings really "ignite" tropospheric ridging with some delay, and how it cuts into the troposphere. :)

     

    I made the layout as a preset, so once I tweak it, I can just put in any data, and simulate any SSW since 1950s, or as far as the datasets go. :)https://db.tt/lZ0gAOWD

    https://db.tt/co8AorvK

    https://db.tt/t5PZ9bO2

    https://db.tt/y3BvBQSL

     

    And some other graphics I made today. Usually everything can be found on twitter where I stared posting a bit more recently. 

     

    xsacsd.png ffsdf.png 464.png

     

    124.png u-componentofwindisobari.png

     

    Regards

    I must admit (being a computer nerd myself) when I saw the 3d images you plotted the other day of the strat/pv, I was impressed, it makes the whole subject that bit easier to visualise (for me anyway).

    Now waiting for dropbox to removed its restrictions on the links you posted, but I think I may be waiting a while!

    Anyway, well done chaps, a great thread as always, looking forward to the near future, ive a feeling its all about to get moving over the next couple of weeks, let's hope any warmings are strong enough and positioned well enough to smash that annoyingly persistent lobe of pv far way from its current and usual home!!

    • Like 1

    Is The Worlds Weather Getting More Frequently Extreme? (Includes gallery)

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    all the other models you quote are models where results can be tested and repeated in a lab of some sorts. you cant do that with a climate models or weather models, it just takes a long time to verify results, and due to this, it makes them very unreliable, as shown by the three top weather models beyond three days. im assuming, and probably quite rightly, that the climate models are just as unreliable.

    so anyone dare to answer the question put to bornfromthevoid? 

    and im not suggesting we put our heads in the sand and ignore the results given by climate science.

    i suggest we wait to see some obvious sighns of global warming (of which there are none yet accept a tiny temp rise over the years, which could be just a natural fluctuation,  we need more time to know for sure.), and if we start seeing some, we adapt to the situation rather than suggest silly ideas (and scare mungoring) which just wont be implemented anywhere else in the world other than our small island.

    Is The Worlds Weather Getting More Frequently Extreme? (Includes gallery)

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    But you compared weather forecasting to climate forecasting, they are very different things and using one to dismiss the other suggests a lack of understanding.

    Nope, I didn't suggest that was your opinion, but laserguy does dismiss it all: the warming, the climate change, and anything related to it. Claiming his type of attitude toward AGW (dismissing loads of evidence without any consideration for anything other than his own gut) is somehow what separates us from religious uneducated societies, is a little far fetched, don't ya think?

    There is no scientific fact and once more the media nonsense, which is both for and against AGW, matters little.

    We are without a doubt altering the planets climate. The exact manifestations of this have some uncertainties. But we're about as likely to discover that CO2 has no effect on climate, as we are discover that evolution was all a big mistake!

    not much time so i will reply more tomorrow depending on youre response, but please just answer one question for me then void,,  are you seriously telling me that you think that the climate is alot easier to predict, and less complex than the weather?

    i will be supprised if youre answer is yes.

     

    knocker - youre statement was answered in my previous one if you care to read it again. theres no need to get personal, it just makes you look like an idiot. i wasnt dismissing anything, im saying a general view on something is not always right and one should always question things, especially when reguarding such complex matters. surely even you can understand that..

    But you compared weather forecasting to climate forecasting, they are very different things and using one to dismiss the other suggests a lack of understanding.

    Nope, I didn't suggest that was your opinion, but laserguy does dismiss it all: the warming, the climate change, and anything related to it. Claiming his type of attitude toward AGW (dismissing loads of evidence without any consideration for anything other than his own gut) is somehow what separates us from religious uneducated societies, is a little far fetched, don't ya think?

    There is no scientific fact and once more the media nonsense, which is both for and against AGW, matters little.

    We are without a doubt altering the planets climate. The exact manifestations of this have some uncertainties. But we're about as likely to discover that CO2 has no effect on climate, as we are discover that evolution was all a big mistake!

    not much time so i will reply more tomorrow depending on youre response, but please just answer one question for me then void,,  are you seriously telling me that you think that the climate is alot easier to predict, and less complex than the weather?

    i will be supprised if youre answer is yes.

     

    knocker - youre statement was answered in my previous one if you care to read it again. theres no need to get personal, it just makes you look like an idiot. i wasnt dismissing anything, im saying a general view on something is not always right and one should always question things, especially when reguarding such complex matters. surely even you can understand that..

    Is The Worlds Weather Getting More Frequently Extreme? (Includes gallery)

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Perhaps you need to question whether climate science is all based on computer models. And then question yourself as to the difference between weather and climate. Then consider if the media ever portrays scientific matters accurately, and how exactly that relates to the scientists.Then question why dismissing, with nothing more than opinion, decades of research and fundamental physics by countless scientists has helped move us away from religion.

    i knew either you or gray-wolf would be in here with a responce! 

    but, no, i understand not all climate science is based on computer models,  and, to be fair, that is not what i said. but they are using those models to try to predict the future climate.  

    i also understand the difference between the weather and climate, and how global warming enthusiasts like to point out the differences regurly to those that they think do not understand. but i very much doubt that predicting the climate is any easier (infact probably harder and more complicated than short term weather), as shown by the innacuracys of their previous climate & temperature predictions. 

    you also assume i am dissmissing years of science, when i am doing no such thing. actually, i am not convinced either way as i feel i do not know enough about the subject. but, i do know that people are not always right, even if there are many with the same, scientific view.

    people still need to consider this fact and not to just jump on the bandwaggon.   scientists do not say agw is a fact (controry to what the media says), they say it is the most likely scenario, and the most likely scenario is not always the right one, especially when it comes to matters so complex as the climate.

    • Like 2

    Is The Worlds Weather Getting More Frequently Extreme? (Includes gallery)

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    "At least back in the day they didn't come with free climate change crapola." - Are you an expert in the field of climate science? Just wondering what qualifications you have that give you the authority to make such a sweeping statement? Do you know something that the world's scientists don't?

    are you?, and do you? you are doing the same thing..

    he is quite right in my opinion.  the press gets hold of any weather related story and links it in with global warming (i dont use the term climate change, as climate change is, and has always been, not something created by us) to create a dooms day scenario.  the thing is, most people dont think for themselves, beleive what they hear (especially if it is banged into you day after day), and dont question anything. if it were not for people like lazerguy, we would all be religious like those in other less educated countrys who are stopped or killed just becase they question what the masses beleive.

    problem is, the scientists are basing their argument on computer models, and we all know how reliable they are beyond three days! enough said i think..

    • Like 3

    Is The Worlds Weather Getting More Frequently Extreme? (Includes gallery)

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by Mr_Pessimistic

    an impossible question to answer unless one has been alive for a million years, and has lived at every part of the globe for those million (or more) years, and you would need an exceptional memory! (or a big note pad!).

    but personally, i doubt it, they are just reported more these days due to technology.

    but then, im a "denier" (or realist).

    • Like 1

    What do you want from Summer 2014?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mr_Pessimistic

    Im hopeing for a repeat of 1816 - "the year without summer"!

    as someone with light sensitive eyes (after a eye injury) and someone that hates the heat, i would be over the moon with this (minus the crop failures and famine!), and plenty of snow thrown in! 

    That would certainly cause some headlines!

     

    come on you volcanoes!!

    • Like 4
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