jukebox

Just checked my phone and I've got some pictures of that event,At 1.30pm I watched as it rolled in from the Tamworth direction and just gave about 5 minutes or so of the heaviest snow I have ever seen aswell before rolling off towards you. I recall the wind just getting really strong and then everything turned white in about 10 seconds lol. Thats one event that will stick with me for a long time ps I was in Coleshill at the time

Fair comment for the moment but look how things shifted last night???? one more run needed methinks

Its very hit and miss today. In Coleshill it has been mainly rain with the odd rogue snow flake and travelling back down the A446 there was 100% snow at Bassetts Pole then further down the A38 towards Lichfield it turned to sleet and in Alrewas just rain. Driving home from work it turned to snow again by Muckley Corner then back to rain and back home in Norton Canes its 100% snow with a light covering lol. Just goes to show how marginal it has been today!!

Weather reports from down south are turning increasingly wintry as the cold air starts to undercut the front which is encouraging. I'm not sure though how the front is meant to pep up though as someone mentioned as their is no feed for it to do so and its progged to decay as/if it moves north. I would have thought that as in effect its two cold air masses meeting then it would need some sort of convection to aid any growth ????????? Latest radar returns show it losing some intensity already and theres no reports of anyone being pasted down south I can find so not great imo. The NAE looks promising for some eastern regions if it can push north but due to the fact it will be wet slushy snow and temps and dew points are marginal if anything falls then it wont last long at all Hope I'm wrong though and you get some fun

NAE says no at 48 hrs http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021718_1518.gif GFS says yes at 48 hrs http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021718_1518.gif and GFS 12 hrs later continues the snow http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021806_1518.gif I honestly aint got a clue what will happen my heart says go GFS but my head says that the NAE will be nearer the mark I think there could be some more lamp post watching to come yet and hopefully this thread will take off again in a few days time

Not sure I agree with that comment mate. GFS has -5 850's http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.png but shows the 528 dam line running through the heart of the country http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn363.png dew points look the wrong side of marginal http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3610.png and any precip looks like it will be slow to push back north and also dying out as it does so http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.png all according to the GFS. The UKMO paints a similar picture but with the 528 dam further north and any precip stalling over the s/e and dying out whilst just pushing a small area back north during Wednesday night http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm603.gif GEM paints a similar picture again but wit the precip further west http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem603.gif NAE paints an even worse picture with the heaviest precip over the south east being http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021700_1512.gif and 12 hours later it decays to this http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021712_1512.gif with no real movement of the front though need another few runs of this to firm that detail up. I'm not saying that you wont see snow but as this is an unusual synoptic setup I think we are on the wrong side of marginal to see anything exciting and anything that does fall wont last very long at all. Hope I've bored you all enough with that now lol UKMO fax chart for Thursday looks a mess, I would,nt like to try and interpret that lol

If you look across the bottom of the chart there is a scale and colour code. Blue is rain and pink is snow not sure about sleet though I think it would probably be where the pinks meet the blues.

That is a reasonable forecast mate and one I'd agree with though i'd think you would need quite a bit of elevation yo see anything wintry. Latest NAE downgrades the snowfall potential for many and it looks like the warnings for the s/e quarter wont amount to anything going by that chart The GFS shows the potential again for snow on Thursday this week but again its a long way out and I think that the models will struggle to cope this week as at the moment some models project the low to sink before heading n/w again later in the week which is an unusual situation and not one that happens this time of year very often in fact it would be interesting to see if it has happened before and what happened in that situation.???????

February is normally a quiet month for the Atlantic but the one thing to note this winter is that normally the jet stream sits somewhere around the UK but at the moment its taken a holiday (down somewhere near the Sahara I think). This is one of the reasons why conditions have been cold this year and if things had fallen into place and we could have got some of the really cold air of the continent then I think that this year had the potential to be a really special one that would have been up there with some of the great winters of the past. For me it will be a winter that had so much potential to deliver the goods but just never quite got there ,I know winter isn't over by a way yet but any snow we get now wont last long. Wrt the jet stream Mark if it does'nt shift its ar*e and get back where it belongs then it wont just be an autumnal spring but possibly a autumnal summer aswell

I would agree with you there Ian. I've been looking at the charts and visiting this site and TWO for about 5 years now and a lot of the time if there is no interesting weather in the s/e quarter then there is no interesting weather anywhere in the country lol. I decided just before the start of the year that I would take more time to understand the parameters of the models and try to contribute on the forums more this year and try and fight the corner for the Midlands lol. I know their are a good few people on this thread that could contribute in a balanced way in the model thread, yourself, w09, Nick2702 to name a few and it would be nice if some of you could post more in the model thread and bring the discussion away from the usual areas and include some other parts of the country.

Cheers buddy Have just been reading a post over on two that Bren posted in the synoptic thread this afternoon that describes the situation extremely well and is very informative and easy to understand. After reading what he wrote I'd agree with your view on wintry showers When I posted last Tuesday about the possibilities of snow for the start of next week it could have gone either way and I was hoping that the low would slide down the east and give us one last taste of snow for the winter lol But I suppose with it sliding out west then it will keep the colder air for longer though to be honest I'm longing for the first warm evenings now so I can get my fishing rods out and snaffle a few carp

I'm sure I read somewhere recently though that snow can fall with dew points as high as +5 and if the precip is heavy enough then it can drag the colder upper air down and lower them quite quickly ???? Or maybe I'd drunk to much wine again and misread it lol. I'm still learning though mate so I'd appreciate it if you could correct me if I'm wrong? thanks

Hi weather 09 the latest NAE for Tuesday shows http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/14/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021612_1412.gifwhich as you quite rightly stated would lead to quite a wintry mix but I still think there is the potential for a snow event as all the factors seem to be in place........850,s are -5, -6 http://expert.weathe...021612_1412.gif with dew points around 0 http://expert.weathe...021612_1412.gif and we are also within the 528 dam aswell http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn483.png . My head tells me that it will be just a wintry mix as you stated and as the charts also show but I've just got a feeling that we could get a good few hours of heavy snow as its such an unusual and marginal setup and some of our best snowfalls in this region seem to come from the marginal scenarios. Either way I think that we should have much more of an idea by tomorrow evening.

Morning we've got very light snow here to some largish flakes mixed in aswell

Out of curiosity whats downgraded???? the models have shown the same now for the last 4 - 7 days and the track of the low for next week has varied across all models though ecm has been fairly consistent to give it credit.

Todays ECM 12z pushes the low for next Tuesday ever so slightly east http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif compared to last night and I think that we need this to keep trending this way if we are to see anything white next week. Dewpoints are ok and so are 850's, dewpoints dont neccesarily need to be below 0 and 850's are low enough to support snow aswell. UKMO fax chart for Tuesday shows http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack2.gif which puts us within 528 dam and shows two fronts pushing across the country with a possible triple point??? further north. One thing to note is that this is a really strange output and not something that you see very often so I think the models are struggling a little with the exact track of the low hence the various forecasts from different agencies. Also the front will have been modified by a cold continent and cold sea when it gets here and at the minute its still all to play for and there really is no reason whatsoever to call it off yet or call a rain/snow fest as a lot can and will change in the next 24 hours or so, further out it doesnt look as if the low will collapse like has been shown for the last few days and could well advect back to the south east and pull in some cold air for next weekend.

Ecm 12z does'nt fill me with joy tonight regarding next week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif This shows the low further out to the west and a fair bit slacker than last nights 12z. I still believe that the low will slip further east before sliding down and collapsing leaving us in a slack flow for late next week. Gfs has the low further east http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png but not quite enough. There should be plenty of precip around http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1264.png (yes I know they ar'nt that reliable) and the 850's are -5 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png should be cold enough for some snow in some places. 528 dam line covers the whole country http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1143.png. At the moment I still stick by what I said on Tuesday this week and think next week looks very interesting still at the moment and by the weekend we should have some idea on the exact track of the low. If the low moves further east then we Could be onto something special but if it collapses too far then there is a risk that it will take the cold with it BUT if it collapses to the west then it will allow us to tap into and draw the cold air from the continent which is'nt great imo for the midlands but it does keep us under a cold source for longer.

Did'nt you say last night to the chart I posted that it would'nt be any good and would'nt deliver as it was a North Westerly

I think the ecm chart I posted will be colder than the above charts due to the source of the winds it will pull in and as the continent/sea is very cold then by the time the air gets here it will be modified and hopefully pull a lot more precip in aswell but as you said things can and will change just need to hope they are in our favour Another thing to look for is convection now that the sun is higher and stronger and we still may have a surprise or two left for this week yet as today proved.

Agreed THAT chart is not fantastic but it will move further east and if you check out the source of air and temps that it will pull in then it will be game on. To be honest I,m not sure of the charts from 20th dec but be nice if you could post up for me to have a look later after the mighty kop have beat the gooners lol yeah I know wishful thinking, cheers mate J

As per my post last night about snow potential for early next week and the eastward movement of the low pressure to bring our cold snowy northerly todays ecm 12z has done just that and hopefully will continue this trend a bit more to enable us to have a good pasting as I think our region deserves one as if its gonna be one of the coldest winters for the last 20 - 30 years I would'nt mind remembering it for a good period of heavy snow which has eluded most of us so far

Looking at the models it looks like we may see a bit of wintriness throughout the week with tomorrow looking ok for a bit of a wintry mix but for anything substantial for our area then I think we need to start looking towards the start of next week as some of the models are forecasting a northerly with some low dam values so we MAY get a good bout of snow early on next week. Now I know that their is time for changes either way in the models and any snow wont be certain until 24-48hrs out but northerlies are much better for our region imo and much better than slack half ar**d easterlies that never materialise as the models suggest (the last two have each downgraded and gone from snow fests into a bit for the favoured regions) From watching the models over the last few years in my opinion northerlies dont often get downgraded very much they have more of a tendancy to get shunted east and there is quite a bit of room for margin if it does go east and we MAY still be onto a good event. I may of course be wrong and as the time nears we should firm up on the details but worth keeping an eye on imo !!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFzC-nPlYGE just an idea of what to expect if you do take a trip up there. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moKH11dMUNQ this video has a little bit of swearing in it so dont watch it if you dont like a bit of jeffing cool icicles though and funny commentary. How many of you have videoed storms or the likes on your own and end up muttering cr*p like this guy does I know I have on more than one occasion lol.

I can recommend a jolly out to Horseshoe Pass in Wales mate. Really high up in the mountains with a cafe right at the top (ponderosa I think its called) and theres a good hill for sledging for the kids and then for the grown ups theres a run of probably about 1000metres or so for some extreme sledging I went up there last year with three mates and too be honest I felt a bit of a pleb and thought I'm to old for this. My worries soon dissapeared though when 2 blokes probably in their late 40's early 50's came ploughing past us on body boards I went and had a chat with them when we went in the cafe for a fry up and they said they go up there quite often!!!! so much for growing old gracefully lol

I aint into beeb bashing myself mate but as my two main hobbies are fishing and canoeing I felt short changed a lot of the time when watching a beeb forecast and planning my day/weekend around the forecast only to get let down on so many occasions when they were wrong. This is the main reason I started to take an interest in the weather. As we have access to so much data from various models and not just from the met then I feel now I have a better idea of what the weather will or could be doing and can prepare for it better. Its a similar thing with the met office long rangers as quite often these change from day to day and a lot of the time they are not great imo either. Going back on topic now has anyone else noticed today that the sun has had a tinge of warmth to it and how much higher in the sky it is its been really pleasant to be out and about today and makes you feel much happier than the slate grey chuff we've had recently. Also it was nice to see some structure to the clouds today with some convection developing. I feel this may help us out with any snow that we may receive in the next 10 days or so .