in the vale

I know it's the CFS, but this is a strong -NAO / Greenland blocking signal for week 3.

There are plenty of words written about DSWs, I certainly don't distrust the science, but there will be very few analogues that have been built into the models - hence the model confusion. Agree with you about the outcome though!

There are very few composite analogues available for DSWs; even SSWs only have a small number to factor into their physics. All the more reason to distrust lower level/surface NWP currently.

This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. I think the models struggle with this transition period - starting data may not be easily parsed when dealing with conflicting obs at different atmospheric levels (strat, trop, surface) that are perhaps unrecognisable to the steady-state, normal conditions that models deal with - i.e. the transition period is going to throw up some strange anomalies, especially as the downwelling gets closer to the surface and more obs are factored in. ECM with it's higher vertical resolution may actually be more confused than any other model. Until the downwelling is complete - next week - and the models can 'recognise' an obs pattern that their physics can recognise as a start point, they are going to thrash around like a mackerel just off the hook. I would not put much faith in any output beyond 68h. The big picture seems to remain unaffected by the transition - low to our South, high somewhere North - those keep us in the game.

Thanks 4wd, I'll have a proper look at the weekend.

I have just had a repair done to my roof and the roofer managed to rip the cable in half! I am assuming this is not a simple two-wire cable, but does anyone know for certain?

I live about 7 miles from Ruthin - proper snow in the Vale again!

A couple of CMs here and still coming down steadily. Real powdery stuff - nice.

Cloud cover - Red = low, Green = mid-layer, Blue - high.

Scariest weather event I have experienced. Felt like a hurricane! At the time, I had a 1.5 metre directional satellite dish on the flat part of our top roof, bolted to a large, old-fashioned 3" thick paving slab, which probably weighed more than I do. Before the internet I used the dish to watch worldwide news & events, so it was a big 'sail'. Over the course of a couple of hours in the evening it 'walked' along the flat roof - thump, thump, thump - it moved about 15 yards before it, thankfully, fell over. We couldn't go into the single story kitchen for fear of it falling through the roof and moved the cars from the front, just in case. Proper scary. I didn't have a weather station then - good job! The damage around here the next day was everywhere. I remember feeling sad driving to my parents the next morning and seeing so many houses without electricity - all those kids with new playstations etc. that were useless!

That is as per the forecast - bit of a quiet spell for a few hours.

It's happened twice more - fab, and a little weird!

Thundersnow here!

NE Wales looks to be in the sweet spot starting overnight tonight, and through the weekend, so hoping for some luck. Even got text from Daughter's school warning of risk they won't be open. Happy Days!

Thanks Feb - I'll re-evaluate my reliance on yr.no when I haven't got the time to trawl MC.

That's what I read from the charts but yr.no shows nothing. Odd.

YR.NO for my location (NE Wales) has just updated following the 12z, and it shows not a snowflake for the next 10 days. I thought YR was usually just a straigh take from ECM, but am I mistaken, given the 12z output I have just looked through?

I just have my console mounted by my PC which I keep on 24/7 - that works just fine. Wunderground rapid fire updates at the same frequency as my station (3 secs) without the need for web hosting - all depends on who you are presenting the data for. Mapantz has a nice professional-looking web portal, but mine is for my use (and other Wunderground viewers) so it's horses for courses.

Oh, and without buying an IP logger (or something like that) you have to have your PC on for data to get online.

I don't know Weatherlink, but I use Weather Display and you can set up a live Wunderground feed from there. That is free to view, but only selected data - see here https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWALESLL7&cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash. There are also a couple of apps you can use on your phone to see your data in real time (3 second intervals, anyway). Not sure if that helps?

Shine a light. Captiva is about 4ft ASL.

I spent a fortnight on Captiva a few years ago, just across the road from the Mucky Duck. Magical spot, I will be watching the Mucky Duck webcam (if available)with great sadness if the track and intensity continues as forecast.

Beeb reporting 11 dead in severe weather in Georgia. Tornadoes reported, but unclear what caused these deaths. In January.....

I did check briefly if there was already a guide to this so, if this has been answered many times, please forgive me and please point me in the right direction. As usual, I have been watching the models this winter and it seems, to my amateur eyes, that the hi-res models have struggled far more than I have seen in many recent winters in getting 144, or even well before, remotely right. I know, for my location, all the super-hi-res views have been dreadful (even the NW-48 and others) - often by 6 or 7 degrees for days at a time. I have a VP2 so I reckon the 48-hr forecasts have frequently been several degrees out - which is unusual. It feels, as a result, that our low-res views have consequently sprayed around like an out of control fire hose. My question is whether all the big three share the same starting data - do they share? Or is there somewhere that shows the geo-density of data that each starts with. I just wonder whether there is something actually happening right now that the physics in the big three is not resolving well, and perhaps a data dark spot may help pinpoint roughly where this may be. Thanks smart people!

Wow! Hit 16.3 C today. Very pleasant!