in the vale

DP down now to 0, 2m temp dropping quickly. Any marginality has gone for the day now. Radar shows it getting heavier a little now as it heads NW. Fingers crossed after the non-event for me on Friday!

Wrexham and Mold look like getting a couple of CMs out of this, if the DPs hold on......although DP starting to drop again here,0.3.

Now just starting to look like proper snow falling here...NMM and NAE show something for us this afternoon, although radar shows the snow decaying as it stretches NW towards me. Llangollen, Oswestry, Shrewsbury and the border area looks pretty good though.

Light hail / graupel here at the mo. 3.4c.

December 11 for me too - bloody ages ago. Chances for snow not looking that good for my area in the next couple of days - will enjoy the vicarious excitement of all the lucky chionomaniacs elsewhere though!

I got quite excited then, wondering whether my old PS6 could do with updating, but see here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/adriankingsleyhughes/2013/01/07/download-adobe-cs2-applications-for-free/

Frosty, a couple of folk have kept on going in here over the last few weeks - you, BA, Nick, John, TEITS et al despite some awful charts and some even more awful postings. Thanks guys, much appreciated by many who don't feel the need to post 5x per run, but we do read what you fellas write because you are clearly (only slightly) more nuts about the weather than the rest of us. All the best for a blocked, 19 ice-day, sub-zero-CET February! Keep it going for 2013 - the Winter we all remember fondly.

The deterministic models are really struggling with this NH set-up. Perhaps not surprising really, these sorts of battered PV and blocking scenarios are uncommon and so the maths behind the much more common atlantic incursions will perhaps have a stronger influence on the predicted outcomes. In effect, although the ensembles are supposed to show sensitivity to input values and slight tweaks to the maths, the dice are all loaded towards a westerly influence. The same with human input (the met are obviously adding their own significant expertise) as this is also flip-flopping to some degree - if in doubt look to the west, in 9 of 10 years that will be the correct outcome. The maths is also based on this no doubt - after all, what else is there to base the model on other than previous outcomes? I know I sound like a stuck record, but if you stand back and look at all the evidence (incl. the atlantic bias) then all I see is ups and downs, but all in all a trend towards cold, easterly-influenced winter weather for this year and the early part of next.

That low just doesn't look 'natural' to me, don't ask me why, but to me a good indication that the atlantic incursion just isn't modelled anywhere near right, both in terms of angle and speed. My (limited) experience suggests that the latter part of next week is nowhere near understood from any of the big models.

I have believed these types of synoptics will appear for a few weeks now, but what I am amazed by is the growing margin for error we are currently seeing. These are not the usual tippy-toe, knife edge situations, but a blunt instrument that pushes way beyond the UK into the Atlantic. We all know it won't happen exactly like the ECM is showing, but with that margin to play with the whole pattern could pull east by a shedload and we'd still be very cold. GFS seems to be going down a similar road, updated faxes look very interesting, stratosphere warming, CFS suggesting huge reload potential, NAO heading into deeply negative territory etc etc. Memorable winter coming up.

The NWP have all been bouncing around but the mean solutions have been headed towards a potentially very cold outlook for quite a while now. The truth is we already are in a cold spell for December - albeit not a very cold spell. My average temp so far (this is in the West) for Dec is 3.7c and the last double-digit temp day was 11 days ago. All the models are pointing towards several proper cold solutions - from different angles, which in my book is a brilliant position to be in on 3rd December. The posters who will not be satisfied until they have to scrape their frozen pets from the pavements really need to get some perspective on the situation. It will be cold. Very cold. And then it will get less cold. And cold again. And then potentially very cold again. This is a pattern that has all the hallmarks of being long lasting (not every day of the winter!) and certainly memorable. Please, look to the wider picture and don't waste your emotions on whether it will snow on thursday or sunday. Sometimes the surprises are magical and all the more enjoyable for it.

Where I think my friend lives is around 250m asl I believe. Just goes to show....

Light snow just reported by a friend in Corwen. Disbelieving, I looked on NW radar and, sure enough, there are some pink blobs there!

This was an excellent thread last year to allow people to stand back a little and look at where the models might be headed rather than whether it will snow on Sunday on my shed. There seems (to my untrained brain) to be a clear trend to something colder that has been signposted for several weeks now. Taking a really objective view, and despite all the dramas and hyperbole, the mean solutions from all the shorter-term models have provided some evidence that the longer term CFS and other more 'esoteric' signals may turn out to be correct. I am not convinced that this will apply to any winters going forward, but the start of 12/13 seems to be panning out as anticipated. Watch and learn rather than react and compete. The weather is bigger and smarter than any of us! And BTW, this thread isn't a place to post comments that would be deleted from the MOD thread.

Thanks Stewart, really appreciate the effort you put into these forecasts, acknowledging the fact that you are putting a lot on the line in doing this. Another point - either I am understanding more of what you are saying (I really do try!) or you are getting better at explaining, but I get everything in the forecast. Damned fine communication for a difficult subject. Well done you - again.

The latest shift from the ECM towards the wider trend gives me even more confidence that we are headed towards a cold winter - progged by the longer-term signals for a good few weeks. The way I have looked at the models is to look for the 'mean of the means' over the last two weeks and this picture has indicated a steady (albeit with many outliers along the way) slide towards colder weather. December is pivotal, not the whole winter, and we are definitely converging on a colder solution. E then N then NW as December deepens (through many ups, downs and reloads) is my vague prediction.

This a good (and popular) setup - obviously not the best money can buy, but has served me well for a few years. http://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/collections/special-offers/technoline-ws2350-weather-station

Posted this in the dying seconds of the previous MOD thread. Now the 18z is out, thought worth reposting for the benefit of the excited and nervous amongst you:- So, we have the ECM suggesting PV reforming by 120 and swallows returning by 240. Or we don't, as per MO and to a large degree GFS. The bigger picture has not changed, December was always going to be a turning point for this winter, not winter as a whole. I remain confident that 12/13 winter will go down as a good'un, not 2010 or 62/63, but we'll all be pretty happy come spring. The short-term synoptics and the global patterns are rarely in agreement in situations such as this, but the longer term NH picture (as GP, JH, OMM, Frosty, Chio and many others study and helpfully report on for those bothered to read) remain strong for a colder than average winter. Witness the chopping & changing of all the major deterministic models - at any time of year this is a strong indicator that the meteorological physics engines are struggling with the signals presented to them. I would not (and haven't for the last 2 weeks) believed a single chart from any of them. Trust the bigger picture people, then you won't be downhearted every time lower slightly Greenie heights are shown or an unfavorable shortwave pops up. You - yes YOU - are very likely to get cold and snowed on this winter, enjoy it and smile when it does. Look at the models that produced it and learn for next year. Honestly, that's all we can do.

So, we have the ECM suggesting PV reforming by 120 and swallows returning by 240. Or we don't, as per MO and to a large degree GFS. The bigger picture has not changed, December was always going to be a turning point for this winter, not winter as a whole. I remain confident that 12/13 winter will go down as a good'un, not 2010 or 62/63, but we'll all be pretty happy come spring. The short-term synoptics and the global patterns are rarely in agreement in situations such as this, but the longer term NH picture (as GP, JH, GP, Chio and many others study and helpfully report on for those bothered to read) remain strong for a colder than average winter. Witness the chopping & changing of all the major deterministic models - at any time of year this is a strong indicator that the meteorological physics engines are struggling with the signals presented to them. I would not (and haven't for the last 2 weeks) believed a single chart from any of them. Trust the bigger picture people, then you won't be downhearted every time lower slightly Greenie heights are shown or an unfavorable shortwave pops up. You - yes YOU - are very likely to get cold and snowed on this winter, enjoy it and smile when it does. Look at the models that produced it and learn for next year. Honestly, that's all we can do.

There has been bickering in this thread for around 4 weeks, discussing the likelihood of a pattern change that the wider range of signals (teleconnections to some) have been suggesting may occur at the end of Nov / start of Dec (ish). Now the major models have CLEARLY indicated a pattern change there is bickering over whether the 850s are going to be cold enough for snow. When the 850s are cold enough for snow (and they will be - follow the pattern run to run, look at what the ECM is hinting at from the NE) there will be bickering over whether it will snow in the north east or the west or in my back yard. Winter is upon us and the only guarantee is point scoring and bickering in this thread. The signals are pointing towards at worst a much better start to winter than last year, and at best a repeat of 62/63. I will happily just follow what the broad range of signals are telling us and bet on a pretty good winter overall. Stand back people and look from an objective viewpoint - it's looking positive. There really is no more useful information than that to be had from any source of predictive weather data.

I remember the Xmas eve storm very well. I had, a few years earlier, installed a NASA sized satellite dish (International news junkie that I am) on the second story flat roof I have on the back of my house. This was mounted on a 3'x2' 4" paving slab which weighed a ton, and had survived much strong wind without a twitch up until that night. During the evening, the whole thing started walking (literally tipping one way and then another like a weeble and moving along the roof) up and down a 20ft stretch of the roof, front door and cars at one end and a single story kitchen at the other. Moved the cars whilst the wife watched from the garden to tell me when it walked towards the cars so I could scarper if necessary. Couldn't use the kitchen for obvious reasons so we went to the pub, expecting at least a mangled dish on the patio when we got home. Amazingly, it must have fallen over at some point and stayed up there. Righted and aligned it again a few days later and worked for many years afterwards. Pretty scary at the time though, but nowhere near as bad as for many who lost lives, properties etc. Helluva storm. It was pretty sad the next day, driving through N Wales on a gloomy Xmas morning seeing so many homes in darkness. Was a big Playstation 2 xmas if I recall, many kids with a shiny playstation and not being able to use it.

Excellent Stewart. Very clear. Well thought out sequencing of contributing factors. I think we now know a little more of what to look out for in the models during the coming weeks, which I guess is the point of releasing this early view of your thinking. Makes me feel like I now understand more about the likely drivers this winter - of course only until someone asks me to explain it! Thanks.

Some really small 24-hr HI/LO temperature differences popping up. Only 2.7 for me (13.8 / 11.1) seems amazing for mid-late October. 1023 hPa. No wind at all today. Feels really settled and pleasant out out with the dogs just now.

That CFS run seems to throw all sorts at us between late Dec and mid Jan. Something for everyone perhaps?