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in the vale

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    Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Kev smith scfc said:

    We'll distrust at your peril there is information about dsw available,when it delivers it will prevail for 30 days,not every day will be cold  but the majority wil.

    There are plenty of words written about DSWs, I certainly don't distrust the science, but there will be very few analogues that have been built into the models - hence the model confusion. Agree with you about the outcome though! 

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    Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    The effects of the SSW are forecast to downwell at last early next week, we are not there yet, and I suspect the models are having a wobble at the moment trying to fathom out the effects - this is quite to be expected, as it won't be clear until the effects manifest. With this in mind, I suspect much flipping and flopping over the next 3 days, with various outputs showing the extreme ends of what could happen.

    GFS has a habit of sniffing out the long term direction far in fantasy land, ditch it within a more reliable medium term horizon, but then draw it back run to run just within the reliable - it did very well a week or two back showing northerly interludes as have occurred now.. so with this in mind I expect it will ditch the greenland height rises in next set of runs, but bring them back mid-late next week within the reliable timeframe i.e. 144 hrs - roughly last 2/3 days of January. The drivers will be the interaction of the azores and arctic high - and how robustly or not they link up..  the jetstream position should have the effect of enabling sharper amplification  of the atlantic trough - a crucial ingredient for leading to the link up. 

     

    This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. I think the models struggle with this transition period - starting data may not be easily parsed when dealing with conflicting obs at different atmospheric levels (strat, trop, surface) that are perhaps unrecognisable to the steady-state, normal conditions that models deal with - i.e. the transition period is going to throw up some strange anomalies, especially as the downwelling gets closer to the surface and more obs are factored in. ECM with it's higher vertical resolution may actually be more confused than any other model. Until the downwelling is complete - next week - and the models can 'recognise' an obs pattern that their physics can recognise as a start point, they are going to thrash around like a mackerel just off the hook.  I would not put much faith in any output beyond 68h. The big picture seems to remain unaffected by the transition - low to our South, high somewhere North - those keep us in the game. 

    • Like 14

    Christmas Eve Gale of 1997

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    Scariest weather event I have experienced. Felt like a hurricane! At the time, I had a 1.5 metre directional satellite dish on the flat part of our top roof, bolted to a large, old-fashioned 3" thick paving slab, which probably weighed more than I do. Before the internet I used the dish to watch worldwide news & events, so it was a big 'sail'. Over the course of a couple of hours in the evening it 'walked' along the flat roof - thump, thump, thump - it moved about 15 yards before it, thankfully, fell over. We couldn't go into the single story kitchen for fear of it falling through the roof and moved the cars from the front, just in case. Proper scary. I didn't have a weather station then - good job! The damage around here the next day was everywhere. I remember feeling sad driving to my parents the next morning and seeing so many houses without electricity - all those kids with new playstations etc. that were useless!

    Davis Vantage Vue - Help needed getting online.

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    I don't know Weatherlink, but I use Weather Display and you can set up a live Wunderground feed from there. That is free to view, but only selected data - see here https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWALESLL7&cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash.

    There are also a couple of apps you can use on your phone to see your data in real time (3 second intervals, anyway).

    Not sure if that helps?

    Hurricane Irma

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, crimsone said:

    Storm surge threat just got even more serious. Updated forecast has 10-15 feet along the coast near Naples.
      

    
Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida
Keys...5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...4 to 6 ft
Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft

      

    
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft


     

    Shine a light. Captiva is about 4ft ASL.

    Starting data

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I did check briefly if there was already a guide to this so, if this has been answered many times, please forgive me and please point me in the right direction. As usual, I have been watching the models this winter and it seems, to my amateur eyes, that the hi-res models have struggled far more than I have seen in many recent winters in getting 144, or even well before, remotely right. I know, for my location, all the super-hi-res views have been dreadful (even the NW-48 and others) - often by 6 or 7 degrees for days at a time. I have a VP2 so I reckon the 48-hr forecasts have frequently been several degrees out - which is unusual. It feels, as a result, that our low-res views have consequently sprayed around like an out of control fire hose. My question is whether all the big three share the same starting data - do they share? Or is there somewhere that shows the geo-density of data that each starts with. I just wonder whether there is something actually happening right now that the physics in the big three is not resolving well, and perhaps a data dark spot may help pinpoint roughly where this may be. Thanks smart people!

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