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in the vale

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    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I have watched over the last couple of months as some real heavyweights have tried to find analogue years for the recent background signals and have struggled. The physics engines that drive all the NWP models are fed by lessons learned from analogues. Therefore they are going to struggle to resolve the likely future conditions as there are fewer examples of how the current starting conditions end up as actual weather. 

    We are seeing this play out on a four-hourly basis in this forum. Each run is held up as true, and then it changes / fails. No surprises. Most models show / have shown a likelihood of cold of some sort - this is like looking at the ensembles - but the route there is changing constantly. Again - no surprises. We are not in uncharted territory, but we are not in familiar territory either, so the models are going to change again and again until we are into the stressful T96 period.

    In situations like this I don't bother with each run (the last two days show that to be completely futile) but trust in the thoughts of GP, Tamara and others not on NW that we are entering a period where we could get something extraordinary, or we could get drizzle. The opportunity for extraordinary is exciting enough for me. 

    • Like 21

    North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by in the vale

    2 minutes ago, iand61 said:

    I'm a bit surprised at that as although it's been raining on and off since early evening, it's certainly not been heavy and the stream immediately beyond the bottom of my garden, a tributary of the Irwell is pretty well at normal levels.

    maybe they are expecting heavier rain overnight although most rivers don't need a lot of topping up at the

    moment.

     

    The detail on the link suggests the alert is due to expected overnight rainfall.

     

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    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think it is worth pointing out the obvious for those who may be missing it. Over the last 2-3 days the models have converged to provide a high degree of confidence in a cold spell over large parts of the UK. That's good, full stop. Which places will see snow and very cold temps has shifted around but where will actually benefit depends on the source of the flow. We have seen NW/N/NE scenarios and the mood of the forum has shifted hugely depending on which direction each run has sourced the upper air from.

     

    Some posters (we know who they are) are entirely objective but the vast majority will call a particular set of outputs an upgrade or downgrade based upon where they live - entirely natural. I get excited by N or NW flows but quite unexcited by easterlies a) because there are generally too many factors that need to verify and b) because they don't generally help me (N. Wales) with snow (cold, yes). However, I am excited if John from Norwich gets snow and look at their pictures of it with a smile on my face. My advice is to look at the posters location before reading their words. I have done this here for years and almost always gives you as accurate a picture of what the models are ACTUALLY showing than what their words are saying. Daniel's post above (#331) is a great example of being objective - he lives in London but seems excited by a chart which would give him much less than me. Good for you matey.

     

    There is stunning potential in the short, medium and longer term for many of us - but I do understand how each run consumes some posters entirely, only for the same folk to appear again a few hours later saying there has been a major downgrade. We are only human after all! From all models and wider teleconnections, Feb 2015 has the potential to be remembered for a good few years. Potential is all we have right now and I've already banked that and am very content!

    • Like 17

    Help please! Davis Vantage Vue....

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    The easiest way is to become a Wunderground contributor. Which software are you using on your PC? Weather Display will set you up as a Wunderground weather station and then you can view online, via an app on an iPhone etc. If you need more details, just let me know. You will need to keep a computer connected though, unless you want to go down the IP logger route. I would suggest a cheap, second-hand laptop or bare bones PC to leave connected. For what you need this would be the cheapest option I guess.

    ND filter

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Gents - I have taken some great night shots of lightning over the years (even back in the Ektachrome days) and do still use a bag full of DSLR kit but I have never tried to photograph daylight lighting - wouldn't know where to start. I have had a nosy at the Weather Photography section but can't see a starters / definitive thread - do you know of one? Thanks.

    Real-time wind gust speed question for newbie

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    Hi 

     

    'Konstantinos' - many thanks for your detailed explanation - all I think makes sense now.

     

    'in the vale' - Thanks for the reply, what type of station do you have that measures every 2.5 seconds ?

     

    Can anyone recommend something semi-reasonable (ie. £100 > £150 ish) that does measure wind say every 2 > 5 seconds ?

    Dave

    Dave - that price range and that frequency sounds like a big ask, but there will be plenty of folk on here who know tons more about weather stations than I do. I have had a few years experience (good and bad) of running (and fixing, on occasion)my WS2300 and did a lot of research before buying my Davis so if you have any questions I can answer, I will.

    Yes and it also saves the data to a virtual ram. This is the major sense, you can see the graph of wind speed in respect of time. And you can go to any point you want, for seeing its value.

    Posted Image

    Looks like a nifty little device!

    Real-time wind gust speed question for newbie

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    The spec sheet for the Kestrel suggests display intervals of 1 second and measurement intervals of 1 second, so I don't know how it displays a higher speed than that measured between two 1-second intervals. Someone who knows that unit better may have an answer. It may be that the gust is the highest wind speed recorded over a longer time period e.g. 30 seconds?

    Reading a little about the Kestrel suggests that Gust is the highest speed recorded over the period you use to take an average speed, which I think is the use of a start / stop button?

    Real-time wind gust speed question for newbie

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    I understood, but why so awful calculations?My Kestrel 4500 NV, updated every second and it shows the real gust.For example it can show current wind speed in 32-second 31 mph, current wind speed in 33-second 31 mph and gust 33 mph, because it felt this, for example, in 32,7 second.

    The spec sheet for the Kestrel suggests display intervals of 1 second and measurement intervals of 1 second, so I don't know how it displays a higher speed than that measured between two 1-second intervals. Someone who knows that unit better may have an answer. It may be that the gust is the highest wind speed recorded over a longer time period e.g. 30 seconds?

    Real-time wind gust speed question for newbie

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted · Edited by in the vale

    Hi  'Konstantinos' - many thanks for your detailed explanation - all I think makes sense now. 'in the vale' - Thanks for the reply, what type of station do you have that measures every 2.5 seconds ? Can anyone recommend something semi-reasonable (ie. £100 > £150 ish) that does measure wind say every 2 > 5 seconds ?  Dave

    I now have a Davis VP2 to replace my Technoline (LaCrosse 2300 clone).

    Real-time wind gust speed question for newbie

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted · Edited by in the vale

    In this case, why to say "this is the gust speed". It can say: "This is the current wind speed".Only a kind of small RAM is required for showing the real gust speed.

    Weather stations do not records gusts, only wind speed. A gust is then calculated after the event as the highest returned speed over a range of data packets from the sensor. Even if the Maplin one above returns data every 48 seconds, it may be actually recording data more often than that (you will have to dig deep into the specs for this) so when it sends a transmission to the console it may be working gust out from the highest speed recorded over several sets of data. However, the frequency of data sets recorded vs. the frequency of data sets transmitted is very different for different weather stations.

    Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Great post Steve. I have been watching the ECM charts closely since about the 25th, and also the local ECM-based surface predictions on yr.no which have showed just how much the small NH variations can alter the local weather forecast. I agree, the ECM has pretty much kept to it's theme on the NH scale, which should be considered a good performance. However, for those folk who seem to believe that UK weather forecasting is a straight-forward science, huge frustrations creep in here when models show what they want to see one day and not the next. At anything more than (on average) 84-108 hours out, the theme is all you can rely on. Once I learned that, the stress disappears and the learning begins.

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