SLAMMER
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Posts posted by SLAMMER
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but all these charts i hear about, from my untrainted eye are still a week away.
why are these any different to the charts we've had before that haven't materilisted?
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go back and look at the model thread last weekend. many people said it was going to be a washout. gleefully as well.
i'm all for people commenting on what they see but when they comment on things that are over a week away as though its fact when we all know things don't work out like that i get a little bit annoyed.
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well the experts on here last weekend had it a nailed on washout for a wet opening ceremony and on the weather just they said that there might be the odd shower.
there was talk of an embarrassment to locog and a washout of massive proportions.
doesn't seem likely now.
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i know its probably not the right place to say this but i'd say the accuracy of the forecasting on here is pretty poor.
is there anywhere to see what people have expected to happen and what actually happens and the accuracy rate more than 3 or 4 days out?
/apologise for being off topic.
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monday and tuesday and most of wednesday were nice days. Unfortunately since last night its been near constant rain. I'm normally fairly optimistic on the weather front but it is looking miserable for the next 3 days and no real sign of settling down.
however, we can't do anything about it however disappointing it is.
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raining on the top of Snowdon.
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its the weather for the love of god.
'knew it wouldn't last'
'rather see wales get it'
we have no control over the weather why fret about it?
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Looking at next week and beyond into Fi
Firstly the essembles
The control and operational both have the 850mb temperatures at around -5 for most of the period, lowering at times to -8.
That is right through to around 19th of the Month.
The mean is cold at around - 2 so i would expect the models to have got a good idea of 850mb temps
The 2m temps are cold looking very cold at times throughout the period.
Percipitation is very low on operational, control and the average(mean), but i would expect this in this type of setup and expect surprises with percipitation as any shorwaves will not show up now.
The Gfs also shows -5 uppers at times but getting close to zero at times in the west of the UK.
From the last run there has been some subtle changes, perhaps slightly less cold uppers at times, but later in the period a low tries to undercut the UK, on each run this has moved Slightly south. Its probably far enough South as we want it, but will change as time nears,( too far North = Sleet / Rain : Too far South and we miss the percipitation.) These lows try to undercut us 12th - 17th.
We have a strong block to our East over Europe and over Siberia. This will make moving the Cold away from us very dificult.
This week the Cold will push back from the East and at times this is a dry direction, however East coast of England will have plenty of snow showers, some of which will make it to the west at times.
By Thursday i think the wind will be quite a feature making it feel bitter, with this i see Snow showers in bands crossing the UK .
Then we look for a Low trying to push North East, if that stays Just south of the UK we could have an Event. So after a brief less cold period to start the week we then get a signifigant cold air mass that gives opportunities for snow, increasing as the week goes on.
Do not worry about percipitation amounts and places for now, things will change as the week progresses and some percipitation will not be forecast until 24 hours before.
I hope that helps and gives an insight to what we can expect over the next 14 days
thanks for that. the uppers and all that don't mean much to me but the last few paragraphs sum up what might happen. thanks again.
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i'm more talking about their graphics on the website. I don't mind what weather we have, its what we get. I enjoy allsorts so have no bias to getting cold weather or snow.
for example if you click on the bbc weather an hour ago it said it was snowing in cardiff, it wasnt. Although they were pretty accurate overall in this run i'll concede that.
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i find it awfully frustrating that on the model thread and this thread no-one actually says what they think will happen in the upcoming week.
Anyone any actual idea of the real forecast for this week? The BBC forecast is to be ignored as its never accurate. The Met Office five day update doesn't show anything significant. So what is everyone on about for next week? Forget late February etc, what will happen in the near future?
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light snow here and temp rising gradually, 0.6 at the moment.
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already -4.1 degrees here as well. Thats cold for 6.30pm.
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ice day in central cardiff today. Didn't get above -0.4. currently -2.
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its not a let down, its the weather. Whatever happens will happen.
met office updated cardiff with sleet for the afternoon now, it was rain previously.
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possible ice day here. still -1.4.
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-6.6 here last night. only one night was colder in december 2010 when we got down to -6.8.
So, before people moan about this winter we've had some good cold days in the last week.
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already -3 in central cardiff this evening.
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raining heavily in cardiff and the temperature has gone UP to 4 degrees exactly.
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its always cold in dodge. -13.5 degrees on christmas day at midday last year.
where abouts are you?
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shall we have a little bet then?
i bet (and sincerely hope i'm wrong) that this time next week its '7 days away'?
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its been one week away for weeks.
why is it so different this week for the observers?
it all seems like hopecasting allover.
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this comment generally only pops up tho when things go wrong.????.If all the models were showing a raging easterly in 5-7 days then im certain this response woudnt happen.Just a thought.
i know very little about the models but i know this much, people are always forecasting 7 days ahead. It would be great to see what actually happened the 7 days after they predicted. I'd guarantee that most people would be wrong. the ones that would be right would be wrong the next time. Its a guessing game, simple.
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Really agree there people talking 5 days +. Massive changes can happen by then, and i think they will.
why do people look at data that is over a week away and think it is going to happen? Its mind boggling. As we know its hard enough to forecast a day ahead let alone a week.
Wales Cymru Cold Spell Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
every country has to take whatever weather that comes their way.
just like everybody was playing with themselves over the models a few days ago they've suddenly become convinced that what was going to happen isn't going to happen.
its weird.