Strider

A few years ago we had a polar low in the north sea... I'm going to guess 2011 but not sure

Checking the EURO4 which was excellent last week shows little snow overnight, but a good chance tomorrow morning post sunrise and Friday morning as well.

Statistically it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas I believe. Welcome become, although I see you've moved now

You could always move to the Peak District SSIB! Probably didn't help that the METO were ramping up yesterday whilst the models were quietly downgrading it

Appalling again for Nottingham, not even a sugar coating! EURO4 played a blinder again, called the downgrade quite early on.

Massive downgrades on EURO4 12z for east mids, showing a mostly rain event now

Current projections show it hitting the E Mids Derby/Nottingham just after 1900

EURO4 6z shows heavy snow for a time in the E Mids, but little accumulation. It seems to me that the conditions are primed for accumulation with a dry ground, low enough DP and ppn heavy. Let's see if it's right! I wonder if they will consider splitting this thread into W Mids/E Mids as that could cause some frustration later on.

Despite the fact it's very similar to the 00z mean ensemble as others have pointed out. Are they (plus the GFS) all unrealistic too? Plus the METO... Btw, I am not trying to make a personal attack here. I just think after a winter of grave disappointment people need to be realistic about what they are seeing. If you check the model thread back in December you'll see plenty of posts convinced that bitter cold is just around the corner and the models have got it wrong...

So in other words it loses the plot precisely where it does what you don't want it to do? It seems to be on a bit of a knife edge hence the constant flip flopping of the OPs. The GFS ensemble mean has a chilly period for a couple of days at the end of the month but nothing spectacular, which seems to be the form horse for me. A slider into central Europe followed by a reassertion from the Atlantic/Azores

Does anyone have a link to the MJO? Thanks

That's a really interesting question but I wonder if they even kept that kind of data back then?

People comparing the beginning of EVERY WINTER to 62/63 really grinds my gears. The majority of posters being unduly optimistic when the models show the most benign weather possible for the next 2 weeks (and similarly being unduly pessimistic when the cold actually does come). I think everyone should at some point should read through the model topics of the truly uneventful winter periods (like first half of 2011/2012 or 2007/2008 etc) and learn something from hindsight. Not every winter has to be a special one.

I read this forum about a week ago and saw Matt Hugo and others saying nothing remarkable was on the cards for at least December.. what happened?!

Thanks - this thread is very informative for all - will you update the forecasts in the OP peridocially? What happened to GP?

Why, was it very accurate this time last year too?! But yeah, some extraordinary night time temperatures too, I certainly think there would be a good chance of that record going if ECM came off

Really interesting to see the regional variances. Drove 9 miles to work into Nottingham, had 2-3 inches at home but almost nothing once I reached Wollaton!

METO were wrong, GFS were right for your area. In Long Eaton it was almost all rain, in Ilkeston all snow (5 miles apart), GFS had predicted rain for everyone. So METO were right for my area.

Is this thread going to split back into two?

Yep we had a good 15cm at least here, Watnall still reporting 13cm accumulation at 09z despite overnight melt

If you look at the M1 cameras you can see clearly from J24/25 northwards is snow affected

GFS was showing rain for all the region though, which was clearly wrong. Last time this happened in late Dec 2010 GFS was right, NAE was wrong. Not so clear cut this time.

It's more of a north/south divide rather than high/low

If it keeps going like this we could easily be aiming for 20cm plus here!

Agree with the snowball flakes here in Ilkeston. Incredible!