Jason M
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Posts posted by Jason M
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Well although were still at day 10!!! you can't argue with the consistency of the last three GFS runs. Very rare to see such similar charts churned out so far out.
Building blocks are in place a couple of days before around day 8, which is a positive.
No excitement from me yet as still much too far away but a slight twitch of one eyebrow maybe
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Well, I think were now pretty nailed on for the initial easterly. Cold but very dry. Pressure is simply too high for any convection and the trend over last 24 hours has been for the heights to increase.
So, its now all about what happens next
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4 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Not sure about this though it depends a lot on timescale. I'm not the MetO media advisor - Marco Petagna would be good to tap up on this is a quiet moment.... - but because of the way the media reacts to snow, and because of the way the outward facing elements of the MetO have reacted quite aggressively to tabloid weather posts, I think they will need to be 110% sure of severe wintry weather before signposting it. Doing what they have done so far, listing it as more likely than normal but still low probability, is about as front foot as they will go until the snowflakes are almost literally gathering on the horizon. We might see a change of emphasis once 15 Jan (assuming for a moment that 15 Jan is when the serious stuff starts) is at 144h range, but until then I'd say no. If I was that media advisor I would be smiling at the forecasters and saying "I hear what you are saying - it is likely to get very cold with snow in the mix....but let's not mention it yet. 11 days is a long way off...."
There is a balance to be struck of course because heavy snow will tend to translate quite quickly into amber warnings, but we dont get these usually until 48 hours before in any case. For now I think the MetO text is fantastic.
Oh, 100% agree with this about any wintry potential for mid month. Way to early to even be considering it beyond maybe a mention along the lines you suggest in the 'longer outlook'. I was referring to this initial easterly over the weekend / Monday. If there was any major potential it would be high level signposted by now.
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24 minutes ago, daniel barber said:
You are aware it would probably take between 2 to 5 working days for the bbc to acknowledge model trends. Plus whenever has the bbc ever been bullish on upcoming cold spells until closer to the time frame.
You and I will have to disagree on this. If forecasters were expecting severe wintry weather or even possibility of it, they would be signposting this by now in forecasts.
A forecast that goes out at 5pm might be running off 06z runs but it would not be much behind. If you are expecting snow / major wintry weather this weekend / early next week you will likely be disappointed. I suspect the temps will be a fair bit lower than suggested in the automated city feeds they show, but outside of this forum it will just be a largely dry / cold few days and nothing out of the ordinary for time of year.
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6 minutes ago, Alexis said:
True, but don't lose sight of the fact this is only 96 hours away...
At Christmas this was still a pipe dream, followed by talk of whether it would sink or not!
Its just fairly bog standard winter weather to me, so doesn't really get me interested. Living right on the Thames Estuary we might see a few flurries here, but just looks dry and cold to me. Interestingly, BBC forecasts are not making anything of it either.
Bigger picture is positive though as you say. I'd far rather be where we are today than where we were this time last year. It was pretty obvious then that barring a miracle Winter was done. That's not the case currently. We could easily end up with a cold week and a return to normal though. People discount that at their peril.
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1 minute ago, Chasbrown said:
What would the temperature be on the ground please?
Under -20c with a Continental airmass that's well embedded -6 or -8 max would be possible IMHO given that its January and sun strength is very low. Under -12c uppers (more likely) somewhere between -2c and 0c. As you move towards mid Feb cloud cover becomes increasingly relevant as the sun starts to pack more of a punch.
Lots of factors to take into account though so these would be educated guesses.
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So, were a day on, but its still day 11 on the GFS.
There comes a point when the Train gets delayed so many times that you know the Rail Company is going to cancel the service!
Good to see such charts. Certainly more interesting than seeing the endless rubbish we did last season but its all fantasy stuff right now.
I will never criticize others for taking a different view but to me unless we get some sort of model consensus on a big cold spell at day 8 its not worth investing time in. I suspect something will give over the next 48 hours though as its just not sustainable to keep seeing these charts constantly turning up. Either they will progress forward (as hoped) or will vanish into the ether.
My gut feeling is a short sharp northerly after the UK high so the evolution does sort of make sense to me, but I'm not ready to invest yet
. I'm not a 'look out the window on the day' merchant but day 11 is just too far into FI IMHO.
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3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:GEFS18z P23 not reading the script:
and unfortunately it's not the only one. Plenty of time for better, though.
Must admit I feel like the Grinch because I've read through the posts this evening in almost disbelief. We have a cold dry easterly currently showing for the weekend and beyond and some very cold, possibly more snowy charts showing way out in FI at days 10 and beyond11!!!
We are 'in the game', no doubt about that, but as per your message this is a long way from a done deal. If this goes pear shaped, there is going to be a lot of grumpy people!
I'm not buying at this stage. Lets see some of these mega charts get to day 8 and then I'll start to pay real attention.
I suppose it beats where we were this time last year though
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At day 10 there is good support for GFS opp across its ensembles.
Much too far out to be anything other than a passing interest at this stage. It does make synoptic sense though as a punchy northerly or attack from NE has looked a possibility for some days post this UK high.
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GFS opp brings home the Bacon at day 10. Who would gave guessed it
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3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
That will come, by 120.
@Jason M there have been examples of decent falls even under higher pressure,.
Somebody posted the examples the other day of this, but I forgot who it was
Yes, but its a lot harder and its the parameter people tend to forget about. You can have a howling easterly across the north sea but under high pressure its often just a Stratos fest with an odd flurry.
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Just now, TSNWK said:
Troughs in the flow?
If we take the ICON run pressure across far southeast is in 1030 -- 1035 range. Tough to squeeze meaningful snow from that. If it was 1020-1025 its a different proposition.
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1 minute ago, Notty said:
My guess is the GFS will show -8 uppers and snow streamers into Kent by Monday morning
Just be mindful of pressure, which will be very high and will likely cap off snow potential. Some flurries maybe but we wont be seeing big snow showers IMHO despite very low upper air temperatures.
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13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option.
Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now
There's a reason the Met go 7 days on their outlooks. It's not that their mildies, but they look for accuracy
100% agree with this. UK highs can really stick around and whilst not unknown to end with a cold spell they often just eventually gently sink away SE. Also, like you I'm surprised at how much interest is being shown in day 10-15 charts. Whole ensemble suites can flip over in a day! I suspect its a measure of where we are after last winter and this season so far.
My current guess based on experience is that this high will eventually allow in a punchy northerly but that it will be a 2 day affair and nothing long lasting. There remains a possibility of a dusting of snow in the far south around day 6. Doubt it will amount to anything as pressure is forecast to be very high so a bone dry easterly more likely but if something did fall it could stay on the ground a long time.
Outlook at the surface is cold for next week or so, but I'm not seeing much snow potential.
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Just now, January Snowstorm said:
Viewed as a snap shot, it's not a great chart
I've seen much worse. Last winter the game was basically over by new year. This year does feel a bit different. I think people on here are putting too much stall in day 10 charts though. Its just my opinion of course and I totally respect the right of others to do so
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6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Yes day 10 should be fine..
The story of this winter. If only we lived in day 10! I'd have had at least a couple of blizzards by now even here
Seen this sort of thing many times over the years. Everything stays out at day 10 until one morning we log on to find a great big fat Bartlett is all over the charts at day 10 which of course verifies
My guess is that we see the high sit on top of us for a good 10 days, we then get a brief but punchy northerly (2 day spell) and then a further UK high.
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Well looking through things this morning it looks like we get some colder uppers for a time under a strong UK high. So, will be cold at the surface but other than a chance of something wintry in the far SE for a short period its looking bone dry. Even the SE will struggle to see much if anything snow wise as pressure will be rising rapidly.
Its the weather and things can and will change but right now it all looks a bit meh. Great for energy companies who will rake it in from everyone turning their heating on I suppose!
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Maybe just wait until the morning runs to put this chase out of its misery. It does look like our old friend the 'UK High' is about to make an appearance though. Was always the form horse tbh.
If anyone is thinking of a City Break over the next few weeks, Athens is usually good at this time of year under a UK high scenario
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I do think its worth just waiting until the morning though before the last nail goes in!
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Hmm GFS shows two very similar runs and has back up from other models. BUT you don't bet against METO at day 5 lightly. I've never rated the METO 144 but at day 5 you want it in the trenches with you.
GEFS at day 5 are all over the place. I think we will solve this tonight as ECM is out shortly and we need it and the pub run to move towards METO. Given the short time spans now I'd say that either the GEFS or Opp will move this evening.
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JFF, at 252 hours across the GEFS (including control) there are 11 UK Highs out of 31 runs. In addition there are another 4 or 5 which have heights south of UK.
There are some very cold charts amongst the remaining runs. So basically its around a 50/50 split. The colder runs though are split between northerlies and easterlies so whilst they show cold spells they are not showing the same set up.
So, UK high remains most coherent signal IMHO but its a long way away and may well change for better or worse.
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10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
15/16\th of jan..are you serous though....haha
Which year?
Been here lots of times before and many failed cold spells have a key characteristic. They don't move forwards through the timestamps. Its like standing on a railway platform seeing the delay to your train increasing and the arrival time getting further away. You know its going to end up cancelled but you keep hoping this time it will all be okay
So, as we were from yesterday from looking at this mornings output. It feels like we have taken a baby step backwards this morning but there remains great uncertainty. Looking at the position at day 6 the opps and GEFS are all over the place and its just a messy set up. I remain in the 'UK high' camp today but I'm still stood on the platform praying that this time the train is really coming
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24 minutes ago, Jason M said:
For the far south / south East GEFS 28 is the holy grail of model runs. Absolutely perfect passing of a low through the channel.
It will never happen but for us in the snow starved far south it would give a whole new meaning to the M4 Corridor
And it just gets better
. In fact best run for whole country.
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For the far south / south East GEFS 28 is the holy grail of model runs. Absolutely perfect passing of a low through the channel.
It will never happen but for us in the snow starved far south it would give a whole new meaning to the M4 Corridor
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Wherever we end up, one thing worth noting is the lack of 'blocking'. There are some good charts in isolation but if you run through the sequences on nearly every run and ensemble things are very mobile. I'm not talking about zonality clearly but if we get any cold, snowy weather its likely to be brief before a change comes.
So, you might see an easterly for 36 hours, then a UK high for a couple of days, then a short mild slot and so on.........
There is potential here but we don't seem to be looking at a static pattern where we could get an easterly for 4-5 days.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Jason M
West based is the biggest risk IMHO. The sheer depth of the cold dropping into Europe could spin up a deep low which instead of sinking South ends up NW of Scotland and cuts off the flow. Kazim has been getting flack for suggesting this but if this goes pear shaped it will almost certainty be via a west based set up. Not saying it will, but its going to be a risk.