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<<Ryan>>

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    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by <<Ryan>>

    Some nice convective cloudscapes on show today. Some minor surface flooding in a couple areas around here. Saw a number of funnel like features which dissipated into nothing, but I have found a funnel cloud report from Kent, towards Dover this afteroon: 
     


    And another funnel report:

    http://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/dramatic-sight-of-funnel-cloud-128114/

    • Like 10

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    ESTOFEX's thoughts on tomorrow - 

     

    Quote

    A level 1 covers many parts of the Balkan States and parts of CNTRL-/W-Europe mainly for excessive rain, isolated large hail and an isolated severe wind gust event.

    Finally, we have to mention SE-UK, where the northern edge of the CAPE plume sneaks beneath stronger mid-/upper-level flow. 15-20 m/s DLS and 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE may support a temporarily organized cluster of storms with an isolated large hail risk. However, the evolution of the activity further south (France) adds uncertainties. In case of the development of a large cluster over NE-France/Benelux, moisture advection/instability and initiation may be delayed or suppressed. Current model data gives enough confidence to stick with a level 1 for now.

    http://www.estofex.org/

    est+3.png

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    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, TN26 said:

    Just got back from Dungeness and Camber. I can honestly say I have never seen anything quite like that before. A mixture of CTG and intercloud lightning of varying colours from pink through to golden through to green. Booming thunder but sometimes almost throttled by comparison. Genuinely lightning every half a second as the main cell past up the channel. Roads flooded on the way back to Ashford. A memorable night for sure.

    I did the same, went from Camber - Dungeness - Dymchurch. A whole bunch of cg's out to sea before any rain arrived and once the torrential rain started there was non stop strobe lightning, absolutely crazy!
     

    20170529003752_LC09[1].jpg

    20170529003536_LC04[1].jpg

    20170529002756_LC03[1].jpg

    • Like 13

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by <<Ryan>>

    ESTOFEX forecast below

    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Fri 26 May 2017 06:00 to Sat 27 May 2017 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Thu 25 May 2017 15:38
    Forecaster: TUSCHY

    A level 1 was issued for NW-France and SW-UK mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for strong to severe wind gusts.

    Over W-France/SW-UK, the air mass stays capped until sunset. Thereafter, initiation is expected over the NE-Bay of Biscay and far NW-France as the trough and front both approach from the SW. Forecast soundings show elevated MUCAPE in excess of 1 kJ/kg with 15-20 m/s DLS. Thunderstorms grow upscale into an organized cluster of storms quite fast. This cluster crosses the W-English Channel and affects SW-UK during the second part of the night, where large hail will be well possible. In addition, low to mid-tropospheric winds strengthen over that region during the night to 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Elevated nature of storms should limit the overall severe wind gust threat, but we can't exclude the chance for stronger downdrafts to penetrate through the stable layer. Therefore strong to isolated severe wind gusts are also forecast. Heavy rain is possible over NW-France but confidence decreases for SW-UK due to the progressive nature of the cluster and its late arrival.

    A level 1 was issued for NW-/N-Ireland mainly for an isolated large hail risk.

    ... NW/N-Ireland ...

    Eastbound moving cold front interacts with an air mass, which features MLCAPE of 400-800 J/kg and 15 m/s DLS. A few organized thunderstorms with isolated large hail are possible, which move off to the NE. This risk peaks during the late afternoon/evening and vanishes thereafter with decreasing CAPE. During the end of the forecast a decaying cluster from the south approaches S-Ireland but northing severe is forecast.

    Over W-France/SW-UK, the air mass stays capped until sunset. Thereafter, initiation is expected over the NE-Bay of Biscay and far NW-France as the trough and front both approach from the SW. Forecast soundings show elevated MUCAPE in excess of 1 kJ/kg with 15-20 m/s DLS. Thunderstorms grow upscale into an organized cluster of storms quite fast. This cluster crosses the W-English Channel and affects SW-UK during the second part of the night, where large hail will be well possible. In addition, low to mid-tropospheric winds strengthen over that region during the night to 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Elevated nature of storms should limit the overall severe wind gust threat, but we can't exclude the chance for stronger downdrafts to penetrate through the stable layer. Therefore strong to isolated severe wind gusts are also forecast. Heavy rain is possible over NW-France but confidence decreases for SW-UK due to the progressive nature of the cluster and its late arrival.

    est_2.png

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    SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Meteo France showing lightening in their forecast just across the Channel. And their rainfall radar showing the extent of the rain moving north. The Realtime lightning map showing activity south of Paris and moving north. So the big question - will the conditions later on this evening support storm activity making it here?

    591dbd8d31e22_MeteoFranceThur18May.thumb.jpg.87f7c5faca7a7669d24cdfcc342976db.jpg591dbda0492fd_MeteoFranceradarThur18May.thumb.jpg.59328a85a7bac013afd42b1be6b46a09.jpg591dbdb244539_Lightning18May16_25.thumb.jpg.e71858d7c95bb13c6e0728b6f6c39995.jpg

    Some new lightning activity to the north paris in the past few minutes, it's getting closer! :closedeyes:

    Actually felt a little chilly outside just now..

    • Like 2

    SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by <<Ryan>>

    Just under 24c here. I agree, it is so sticky out.
    I'm hoping for a few storms to form ahead of the main band across northern France which will become embedded in the heavy rain as they move towards the far south east. I was watching some convection on sat24 and a couple of showers have now formed, lets see if these can become electrified. 
    Still, if nothing happens today, there are more storm opportunities over the coming days to look forward to :)

    And just a few minutes after I posted this, the first lightning strike from one of the cells ahead of the band! Looking pretty explosive down there.

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