gareth moo

Starting to settle in the valley for the first time now.

Steady snow but not settling in the valley yet.

The Met Office have got their boss man onto it today. Still looking good for most in South Wales.

No dramas mate. Expect Orange by mid morning if not before.

Anyone worried about Thursday needs to take a look at this from the Met Office. Deputy Chief Forecaster puts the valleys into the sweetspot for probability. Skip to about 15 mins onwards for Thursday. Well explained by her.

Hello all. Back for the crazy season again. Looks like the valleys could be in the firing line for the best of UK snow again this week. Those reading the MAD thread over time will confirm that those folk in there need Beasterlies to get their boat floated in the SE. North Westerlies deliver for us here in God's country despite the knife edge marginality as always. However, wet snow is our default and big flakes pile up pretty quickly right? Looks like we will have a couple of potential events this week - Tuesday and Thursday. Andy / Keith / Julian - what's your current thinking? Good Luck all.

Next Thursday's slider is going to have a 48 hour stall right above Brynmill Lane!

The small low over St Malo in Normandy should arrive by 4-5AM for the Beast's goodbye present. (The Euro 4 model has it too.) Could be a few hours of intense wet flake PPN at the same time as the lowest traffic flow leaving some pretty hairy road conditions come sunrise. Eyes down for the radar watch. Location and timing is one for the die-hard all-nighter snow fans amongst you!

Radar showing this next batch intensifying into an organised front. Massive change in an hour and probably another 4-5 hours of this to come - maybe more!

The moisture feed from Normandy just keeps on rebuilding!

Not stopped since 7am. Great snow quality. Maybe better than that in the Alps last week! Dry champagne powder reminds me of what I had in Jasper Canada about 10 years ago. A memorable event in progress here.

Batten them down, she's knocking at our door and I don't think it will even peak until 8-10pm later!

Check the METEOX radar for what's coming from the South. Next serving is big and looks to have most of South Wales in its sights followed by another interlude before another course brewing up over Iberia. A great moisture supply if the synoptics stay fairly similar.

I think that Emma has a couple of days of energy stored up inside her yet. She's going to sit down South of Ireland, spin around anticlockwise and throw bands of moisture our way although the one for this afternoon and evening looks like the real deal! Places with lying snow and lower surface temp should ensure that any further precipitation is white this weekend. Red warnings so not get thrown like confetti from the big brains in Meto Exeter - people must heed them!

I'm currently in the French Alps and the Beast kicked in on Wednesday. If we are getting some of this, it's going to be brutal. The locals here are used to cold but even they are not looking forwards to next week. The local bar owner was talking about -15 in the valley, worse at altitude. However, nobody's raiding bread and milk!

Can't see any way back in for the Atlantic next week. Anything falling from the sky will be white with that continental air hanging around. This could be memorable!

The slalom down the Bellevarde yesterday from Val d'Isere showed one hell of a snow storm. They did well to keep that race on! Anyone off to Savoie or Isere over the break will not be short of fingernails this year for a change!

My son is sledging in Bassaleg with his cousin. They reckon it's better down there than here - which is unusual. Being in the lee of Machen mountain has made the difference for sure. I was just up on top at 360m and there is over 6" lying and drifts well above that. A different world up there as down in the valley the wet snow is still not settling on all surfaces.

Friendly Fox open Rhys?

Down here in Machen we are right on the margin of this event. Rain pounding the windows most of the night but now turning more to wet snow with rain mixed in. Amazing to see the famed evaporative cooling in effect as the heaviest pulses convert to 100% snow blizzards with the addition of crazy gusts. 1 degree here at present but guessing that may fall in the next few hours as the winds veer North West. Going to be a great day!

Just dropped below 1 C here. Must be below freezing further North and at elevation - any updates?

Everything tomorrow is moving in the right direction in favour South Wales for sure. Superb event in progress. The sheer marginality for so many down here adds to the thrill of the chase. Beacons and mid Wales buried?

We love you pub run we do, oh pub run we love you!

Decent streamer action incoming for the valleys folks! Reckon the low on Sunday is going to pivot late afternoon and drop back upon South Wales dragging some colder air with it. Before that - cold rain South Wales, Snow to the North. The Met Office Fax chart looked good for this too. Hoping that the high res models will show this in the next couple of runs when they get in range!

Looking at the isobar direction changes on the EURO4, we should see the flow change from NW to NNW about now. We in the South East should be looking at the Northern Ireland / Eire border region for our upstream showers. Here's hoping that the warmish Irish Sea give them a shot of Red Bull !!