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gareth moo

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Everything posted by gareth moo

  1. gareth moo
    Yes, know that area well. Use the R. Ogmore for A Level field study and always start up on the Bwlch. Great views both sides and the most Southerly glacial corrie in the UK there North facing into Cwmparc valley. Must be like the last ice age up there now too!
  2. gareth moo
    Remarkable difference in snow depths with altitude here. Went to investigate Machen Mountain earlier with a Garmin. Valley (70m asl) 1-2 inches remaining in most places away from griited surfaces 100m - 3 inches 200m - 6 inches 300m - a level foot with upto 4 foot drifts! Totally different world up there! The slight thaw that came in on Tuesday afternoon really affected the amount of snow that settled that night below 150m with that front from the West Country. More at 300m+ than 2010.
  3. gareth moo
    Should be on the move South East only brushing the tip of Southrn Ireland, certainly not moving E/NE. If it makes its plunge SE now, i was thinking that West Wales will already be in its path. May fizzle out but looks too powerful for that. Maybe barking up the wrong tree but could be fun watching what happens. cheers!
  4. gareth moo
    Sorry to harp on about it, but that intense front over Southern Ireland still isn't doing what it should be doing. Any other opinions out there?
  5. gareth moo
    That front moving into Southern Ireland is well ahead of schedule and further West than progged. It should slide South East. Maybe one for you guys in the West to monitor today!
  6. gareth moo
    Disappointing totals considering the intensity and longevity of the front. Ground temps started rotting the snow as soon as it settled. I'm sure slightly higher elevations will have done very well.
  7. gareth moo
    Agree! If this was a regular rain event, i would be looking at this as pretty significant and persistent for my location.
  8. gareth moo
    It will be with you in a minute. It's coming up the valley!
  9. gareth moo
    And so it starts! The Raintoday radar echoes have us in the SE getting a truckload on its current course.
  10. gareth moo
    The Low centred over the Brest Peninsula (schoolboy back row snigger!) is rotating pretty fiercely. Through my fairly untrained eye, i would say that on its current course, the most intense PPN will skirt the South Wales coast - Newport, Cardiff, Vale. However, it will doubless spray a few hefty showers inland where, depending on conditions and timing etc, would give some good snow.
  11. gareth moo
    For what it's worth? This evening?
  12. gareth moo
    There's more than a threat of this turning wet particularly for Southern and coatal areas. We could do with the PPN to stop until later this afternoon / evening when that tasty band over Brittany can do its business.
  13. gareth moo
    Still pasting it down here. Not too much left in this band for this area but hey take a look at round 2 on its way! Throw the models out of the window, they simply can't deal with this set up. Should be an exciting 24 hours. Good luck everyone!
  14. gareth moo
    Current radar has the occlusion much further North East than NAE18z had it at midnight. Will it make it? Will it intensify over the BC? Will it stall? Could be a 'yes' to all 3. Not a big area but somebody's going to do well here me thinks!!
  15. gareth moo
    Yes, i was reading that. Also snowing in Looe down on the coast at sea level. IF we get the PPN - good signs..
  16. gareth moo
    Enthralling day of model watching. Still no great triangulation from the million dollar computers. If the professional guys still have no idea, we've currently got 48 hours of exciting nowcasting to come. OK the PPN totals are less exciting on the 18z NAE, but i think we know that with the LP in the mix to our South, it could spring us a great surprise or two. Thoroughly looking forward to it myself!
  17. gareth moo
    He's excellent. Goes by the latest data available. Clearly doen't plan his forecast too far in advance. Back home: just took the mountain bike to the top of Mynydd Machen and there's still several inches of pristine powder up there despite a slight thaw in the valley today. Wind direction (as determined by the trusty wet finger!) is certainly on the move. More SSE or SE currently. Had some decent flakes earlier here and temp just dropped below 0c again. Good signs for tomorrow i think overall.
  18. gareth moo
    Maybe the most intense PPN a little further South on this run, but its still giving moderate snow for most of South Wales. A big stall is also clearly visible. Expect warnings pretty soon. Could be real disruption tomorrow seeing as its progged to intensify after people have made their commute. Still plenty of time to change although some areas could get hammered by this.
  19. gareth moo
    Yes, some change is guaranteed at 12z. 06z was an outlier last Thursday. Significant change? We'll know in an hour or two. Fingers crossed!
  20. gareth moo
    They will be waiting for Ensembles and 12z NAE to check that the 06z wasn't anomalous. I can't see NAE changing significantly this afternoon but who knows? The pros don't seem to right now!
  21. gareth moo
    Yes absolutely. I just edited my post. No triangulation whatsoever from the other models!
  22. gareth moo
    Latest NAE has South Wales buried tomorrow. 24 hours out only! Edit: It also predicts an all day stall. Amazing output but no triangulation from other models really.
  23. gareth moo
    Thanks Jamie! Excellent analysis and reasoning as always..
  24. gareth moo
    Yes. The Bristol Channel looks to throw some more the way of SE Wales.
  25. gareth moo
    I think that there may be a few inches in those echoes for this afternoon.
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