gareth moo
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Posts posted by gareth moo
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Remarkable difference in snow depths with altitude here. Went to investigate Machen Mountain earlier with a Garmin.
- Valley (70m asl) 1-2 inches remaining in most places away from griited surfaces
- 100m - 3 inches
- 200m - 6 inches
- 300m - a level foot with upto 4 foot drifts! Totally different world up there!
The slight thaw that came in on Tuesday afternoon really affected the amount of snow that settled that night below 150m with that front from the West Country. More at 300m+ than 2010.
- Valley (70m asl) 1-2 inches remaining in most places away from griited surfaces
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what should it be doing?
Should be on the move South East only brushing the tip of Southrn Ireland, certainly not moving E/NE. If it makes its plunge SE now, i was thinking that West Wales will already be in its path. May fizzle out but looks too powerful for that. Maybe barking up the wrong tree but could be fun watching what happens. cheers!
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Sorry to harp on about it, but that intense front over Southern Ireland still isn't doing what it should be doing. Any other opinions out there?
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That front moving into Southern Ireland is well ahead of schedule and further West than progged. It should slide South East. Maybe one for you guys in the West to monitor today!
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Disappointing totals considering the intensity and longevity of the front. Ground temps started rotting the snow as soon as it settled. I'm sure slightly higher elevations will have done very well.
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I dont think so its going to be here all night! Since the last car passed over the road about 20min ago the tracks are already accumulating with snow again!
Agree!
If this was a regular rain event, i would be looking at this as pretty significant and persistent for my location.
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fine wispy flakes coming down. I think the ground is too wet from thawing to stick though ..
It will be with you in a minute. It's coming up the valley!
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And so it starts!
The Raintoday radar echoes have us in the SE getting a truckload on its current course.
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The Low centred over the Brest Peninsula (schoolboy back row snigger!) is rotating pretty fiercely. Through my fairly untrained eye, i would say that on its current course, the most intense PPN will skirt the South Wales coast - Newport, Cardiff, Vale. However, it will doubless spray a few hefty showers inland where, depending on conditions and timing etc, would give some good snow.
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For what it's worth? This evening?
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There's more than a threat of this turning wet particularly for Southern and coatal areas.
We could do with the PPN to stop until later this afternoon / evening when that tasty band over Brittany can do its business.
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Still pasting it down here. Not too much left in this band for this area but hey take a look at round 2 on its way!
Throw the models out of the window, they simply can't deal with this set up. Should be an exciting 24 hours. Good luck everyone!
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Current radar has the occlusion much further North East than NAE18z had it at midnight.
Will it make it?
Will it intensify over the BC?
Will it stall?
Could be a 'yes' to all 3. Not a big area but somebody's going to do well here me thinks!!
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Thunder snow reports in the South West forum
Yes, i was reading that. Also snowing in Looe down on the coast at sea level. IF we get the PPN - good signs..
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Enthralling day of model watching.
Still no great triangulation from the million dollar computers.
If the professional guys still have no idea, we've currently got 48 hours of exciting nowcasting to come.
OK the PPN totals are less exciting on the 18z NAE, but i think we know that with the LP in the mix to our South, it could spring us a great surprise or two. Thoroughly looking forward to it myself!
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I watch his forecast and tapes our, i think he very good, he gives much more information out than derek.
He's excellent. Goes by the latest data available. Clearly doen't plan his forecast too far in advance.
Back home: just took the mountain bike to the top of Mynydd Machen and there's still several inches of pristine powder up there despite a slight thaw in the valley today. Wind direction (as determined by the trusty wet finger!) is certainly on the move. More SSE or SE currently. Had some decent flakes earlier here and temp just dropped below 0c again. Good signs for tomorrow i think overall.
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The latest NAE out and still around the same as this morning but just perhaps a little later, instead of perhaps the heaviest snow around 6am till noon i think It might be perhaps 9 or a little later till 6. That will be Mad if it comes at that time. People would be panicking in work.
I think if mogreps is singing fromthe same hymn sheet then i think they will put a amber warning out soon
Maybe the most intense PPN a little further South on this run, but its still giving moderate snow for most of South Wales.
A big stall is also clearly visible. Expect warnings pretty soon. Could be real disruption tomorrow seeing as its progged to intensify after people have made their commute. Still plenty of time to change although some areas could get hammered by this.
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Gareth it can change bigtime, take last friday for instance when the oz thursday came out it was bringing about 20mm to our area then the 6z was suppose to bring 35mm to our area( that was red warning time) and then the later 12z brought it back to around 20mm and that was what we really had.
So i think the 12z will be very intresting because if it still says around 30mm then the game is on. I will be shocked if its that much going what ukmo oz was showing and the dog dinner Gfs 6z.
Yes, some change is guaranteed at 12z. 06z was an outlier last Thursday. Significant change? We'll know in an hour or two.
Fingers crossed!
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They will be waiting for Ensembles and 12z NAE to check that the 06z wasn't anomalous.
I can't see NAE changing significantly this afternoon but who knows? The pros don't seem to right now!
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That really is a huge divergence with the NMM, which shows this at the same time period.
Which will be right? One of them is going to go up in my estimation...
Yes absolutely. I just edited my post. No triangulation whatsoever from the other models!
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Latest NAE has South Wales buried tomorrow. 24 hours out only!
Edit: It also predicts an all day stall. Amazing output but no triangulation from other models really.
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Thanks Jamie! Excellent analysis and reasoning as always..
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It's pretty epic right now. Netweather extra shows the snow intensifying rapidly
Yes. The Bristol Channel looks to throw some more the way of SE Wales.
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I think that there may be a few inches in those echoes for this afternoon.
Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 24th January 2013, 06z onwards
in Regional
Posted
Yes, know that area well. Use the R. Ogmore for A Level field study and always start up on the Bwlch. Great views both sides and the most Southerly glacial corrie in the UK there North facing into Cwmparc valley. Must be like the last ice age up there now too!