Cheshire Freeze

Well would you believe that, the block has another go in FI ;-)

There will be another attempt at a block into FI as the cold spilling off the ESB is reduced on the 18z

IF we can get a decent warming event into December then I may have to change my winter thoughts somewhat...That was a major factor in my pessimism RE this winter.

Yeah I noticed that... Instead, the vortex bleeds its way in towards Greenland...

Are we seeing something maybe starting to click into gear up top? Gone is the big blue/purple circular blob that we were seeing...

Snow showers packing into NW areas here (including mine) I can dream!

The ensembles are all over the place so yes, caution required as ever. Will be interesting to see the ECM days 8, 9 and 10 charts to see if they corroborate the GFS and GEM version of events.

Further to my last post, GEM is very similar to GFS In fact, N Atlantic heights are even better

Much better GFS in the mid term Certainly gives us something to build on and for us, miles away from the 18z Edit- HP being sheared in towards Scandi, prolonging the cold- almost a stellar chart for areas towards E coast

I guess all we can do is see where we're at in the morning. I'm not counting on any form of resolution however as when one thing is resolved, something else crops up!

And for balance here is one from mid November 2016...closer to the point we are at now Amazing how quickly the upper strat can descend isn't it...

Indeed, Perfectly plausible that we see repeated attempts at NW'ly incursions as we progress through the next few weeks (dependent on there being enough attenuation on the jet through upstream amplification). These incursions will likely bring some snowfall to parts of the N&W, more especially over higher ground as per.

The issue I have, is that if I was on here giving the same reasoning but for a colder outlook, there wouldn't be any of this unnecessary overreaction. A spade is a spade I'm afraid, no matter how much sugar coating people want. If I see upcoming cold in the modelling I'll be all over it IF it is supported. I'm sorry but it goes against my whole ethos to say things for the sake of appeasement of cold lovers (of which I am one!)

'The writing is on the wall' is a lot different to writing the month of December off in its entirety. The writing is on the wall...but is it too early to be absolutely sure that the month is a 'write off'?...absolutely. Come on people...

Well I will if you can show me where I have based a forecast on the CFS?! In fact I'm pretty sure I started the post with 'I'm not placing any stock in it'... Confused.com!

It means the same as it did when I said it last year...with similar responses to yours about the same time in November as now... It wasn't an off the cuff comment, nor out of the blue. I've been saying the same thing for weeks and have given my reasons many times as to why I believe we are heading where we may well end up heading over the next few weeks. Even the more learned on here like Tamara have said exactly the same thing in fact. GP was possibly the first 'pro' to state the beginning of winter may be quite mild back in July/August when he was analysing the S Hemisphere winter and how it may affect our start to winter!

Yes, strat forecasts are a lot less prone to the volatility that the trop forecasts suffer at that range. Worth monitoring!

Who has said that winter is over because the CFS is showing mild? Of course it can be used as supporting evidence to compliment a plethora of further pointers such as the cycles within global climatic drivers and other background signals. The same is true of other long range modelling tools such as the GLOSEA. Flippant remarks such as yours add nothing to the thread, and rather undermine those of us who actually want to get our head around such drivers, signals and NWP tools.

I'm not placing any stock in it but the latest CFS run features possibly the 'worst' temperature anomaly I've ever seen on that model for a winter month Going forward I genuinely believe the writing is on the wall for December. This doesn't exactly bode well either

You have to understand that over the Hemisphere as a whole then it is on average the best model. However when it comes to modelling scenarios such as this, for our neck of the woods it is often a smidgen too amplified. Means very little in the grand scheme of things but to our 'on the ground' weather it has massive ramifications. We have seen it time and again.

I'm very doubtful- All very familiar to me, it has been the same way for the past few years. We see Euro heights repeat ad nauseam. The ECM has often over amplified things and I suspect we'll see a backtrack from it on the 0z run.

18z GFS daring us to get the BBQ out rather than the scarfs and ear muffs

A term that a person called Ian Brown claimed he coined (which has since been disproved) - The Modern W inter

Nail on the head Feb. Couldn't have put it better myself. We are, IMO staring down the barrel of a +NAO winter. The GLOSEA sees it, CFS sees it and I see it (along with you and a few others) This isn't to say, however, that some areas can't potentially do well from potent topplers ala Christmas 2004.

Just look at those heights throughout the Mediterranean into central Europe Stuck like a limpet. We won't see anything of note until they disappear.