Cheshire Freeze

The thing that is nagging me is that as T 0 approaches, the vortex is looking slightly more resilient than the modelling had previously suggested- yeah it keeps looking ragged in FI but... I've been watching the GFS today and even around 72 hrs I have noted that the vertical advection over on the Pacific side has been muted somewhat on successive runs (and deflected away from being polewards). These are relatively close range changes and is very reminiscent of last year before it all imploded.

Pacific ridging cut off even quicker this run than the 12z. Could be more of a slog going forward on the 18z

I prefer not to ramp anything lol. I certainly don't like mild in winter but have learned hyping up cold charts will lead to disappointment 90% of the time. I prefer to try and be a bit more pragmatic with my thoughts!

At least someone understands my struggles Very often gets labelled as moaning. It's less moaning, more realism!

But building blocks don't really exist in this instance. We're against the clock RE the strat vortex and it's engaging with the trop. 'Building blocks' won't cut it here, we either need the cold when all said and done or we suffer a fate we all know too well. I think this has been hinted at over the last day or two by people like Tamara.

Rather predictably blows up LP to our SW Which then has a hasty change of heart and tries to head back NW in the face of a developing Scandi ridge

Trop vortex being pincered with intent. Always good to see. A long way away though

The vertical advection Pacific side is cut off much earlier on this run as opposed to the 6z. This in turn has big effects on the trop vortex- AO not quite as negative and a bigger section of the vortex left on the Canadian side rather than the Siberian one. We'll see how it progresses through FI.

Cheers Paul

Indeed...just dawned on me! (you'll have to forgive me, had about 1 hr sleep and been work on that) Well the CFS is hellbent on a +NAO winter, so it comes as no surprise. However, I've posted over in Mod banter thread as to why the CFS could be suspect.

In all seriousness, for whatever reason, the CFS is not initiating the progged -AO very well at all Here is the day 10 chart from the latest daily run I'm not sure what is driving the CFS and Glosea signal TBH Compare the above with the ECM and GFS operational day 10 charts

Lord almighty! You had the orange crayons out Malcolm? The accompanying pressure anomaly

To be honest, neither look particularly appetising RE UK. First chart= extreme west based -NAO Second chart= doesn't bear thinking about! I'm assuming that is referring to height anomalies, as there is no legend!

I wonder if the further outlooks are archived somewhere?? I can remember as clear as day Fergie posting in the model thread suggesting that blocking was expected to be high latitude based- he even spoke of low heights running underneath into Europe. The exact opposite happened! If we're dealing with technicalities then yes, the SE (especially) was cold at times due to inversion but the actual dynamics leading to the cold couldn't be more different than were expected! The main issue was that the EC model performed woefully last winter as did the EC seasonal and Glosea (the former suggest widespread +ve height anomalies to our N).

Hey? The Metoffice were going on about a cold spell for yonks from about mid November (if not before) last year. John Hammond also did a special look ahead to the winter too if you remember, saying that they favoured colder than average conditions. Even when the writing was on the wall and we were looking at charts depicting a tightening PV, they were still crowing on about how disorganised the vortex was. Ian Fergusson was in the MOD thread repeatedly saying that they expected the strat and trop to couple sometime towards January when in fact what we were seeing was the strat and trop already coupled in early December. I'm sure the posts are out there in the archives. Unless, of course, you were being sarcastic??

Yes, in late November that is one thing that goes for us, unlike during the second half of February for example. You're on a timer past mid February, which is why cold early doors can be so much more rewarding.

Get a decently rigid block between Greenland and Scandi and the Atlantic is all but buggered for the foreseeable. 18z wants to try and give it a go This is one of the most stunning charts you'll see in a UK winter...if it was January it would bring the UK to a standstill

Close to another air frost here at 0.2C

Following on from my last post... Small changes early doors (day 6) have big consequences further on as to how blocks align. We're seeing the models generally sharpen up Pacific side ridging this morning- this is the GEM... With the trop vortex still being in its relative infancy, it is being given a hard time- being ripped apart at will. The issue is still there however, this is trop led and not strat led. The strat will couple with the trop at some point. We're just a smidgen too early for any deep cold as the GFS shows in FI.

Should be a decent FI coming up hemispherically At day 6 we're seeing better vertical advection into the Siberian side, may even see a bit more interest strat wise towards the end of the run.

Yeah...always convenient to dismiss 'Blairite Labour' and their part in destroying various facets of our country. Sometimes there's no easy way back from the damage that has been caused.

Yes, the money that it receives (plenty of btw) needs to be put towards facilities and nurses rather than the fat cats creaming off the top! Another consequence of Blairite Labour I'm afraid. A target driven pen pushing exercise which has allowed those at the top to flourish on 6 figure+ salaries.

The point is that sometimes we have the resources to make our own decisions over probabilities. I believe that @Steve Murr was one of the first to spot game over last year as he was monitoring the zonal winds. This was well before the likes of the Metoffice even seemed to twig on that it wasn't going to plan. This is not to bash any forecasting agency, I'm just making a point

Again, it means little. The BBC/Metoffice were fully confident of colder weather with snow for early December last year. They were saying this mid November. There was a screenshot on here for the look ahead summary on their extended forecast but it seems to have been taken down from the thread.... Edit found it..

If we fail to see anything of interest strat wise then it's really only a matter of when and not if the increased zonal winds make their way down to affect the trop. Like last year, this could be a critical period for our winter hopes. If we get it right then we could be looking at an OK winter. If not, I suspect those horrid CFS and GLOSEA winter anomaly charts may not be far off the mark. I knew as soon as that progged spell mid-late November last year failed that it was curtains going forward and I said as much at the time.