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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    The thing I noticed was the constant rebuild of N Atlantic/S Greenland heights throughout FI. Everytime it looked like they were sunk they'd just build back. As for that chart you've posted, I'm not sure I've seen a tropospheric vortex look as feeble as that whilst approaching mid November.
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    :O 4 miles down the road from here, Didn't know there was an official station there though
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    You could say that about just about any synoptic situation shown in the NWP. A 'tweak' could change a SWly into a Wly, a SE'y into an Ely and so forth.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    Gets very interesting deep in FI
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    Either way I struggle to see how the Atlantic gets in properly from here. Just a matter of time before heights build once again either to NW or NE In the mean time we see a ridge promoting pleasant days and chilly nights
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    GFS suggestive of a possible eventual split at the end of the run into November, certainly a lot of pressure being put on the fledgling vortex. As others have said, very interesting.
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    Perfectly plausible we see mobility for a while...we are not going to head into winter completely blocked throughout. November 2009 is an example of the right kind of mobility...with weak heights ever present across the N latitudes rather than a raging PV.
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    Fair enough, there is almost always a relaxation of the pattern before it emerges once more. I'd rather these synoptics reappear later on in November, which, given the strat charts I've seen looks a fair possibility.
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    I was getting the 'checking browser' page the other day then a 503 gateway error. Wouldn't let me on the forum so gave up and went to bed lol.
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    Aye, imagine this in January -5 uppers knocking on the door of the E coast. About as cold as you can get at end of October in terms of synoptics
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    Well I've seen the tropospheric vortex organise itself within a couple of days but I think it depends on how organised the vortex is within the stratosphere.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    N Atlantic blocking is a huge historical autumnal analogue for the strong Nino- la Nina switch and up until the mid 1900s this type of scenario correlated well to very cold/blocked proceeding winters. We can only hope that the cycle has come around once again...
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    'A stormy weather pattern will set in before wintertime with active weather during the second half of October across Ireland and the United Kingdom.' A quote from that piece. Right well we'll see how that one goes because if that goes awry I won't have much confidence in the rest of the forecast period!
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    All academic as it's at day 16 but snow more than possible given the advection of coldest uppers S through the UK. -5/-6 uppers suitable for wintry showers containing soft hail, sleet and wet snow as you say.
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    The main difference to this time last year...the high is showing retrogressive tendencies rather than being shunted down to the Balkans....
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    Some impressive charts there. Over on TWO they were stressing about the high gradually sinking SE and ruining Nov and Dec. No need to worry if the high retrogresses....
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    First bit of cool air (and attendent lower DPs etc) being dragged around the flank of the Scandi high there towards E Europe. Lovely stuff.
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    From the mean, it seems that below average temperatures are favoured for the winter period?
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    Big departure from the 12z at days 6 and 7 More unsettled and much chillier feeling
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    Pretty sure there was a Canadian warming in Nov 1962
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    Get that Canadian warming and it puts us in the driving seat. I'd suggest that the GLOSEA5 ensemble mean for pressure anomalies is being skewed somewhat by those members who initiate this warming...I'd wager if we were to see the individual perts, there'd be some cracking eye candy in there wrt to Greenland HP scenarios.
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    Even raw GFS doesn't look that cold
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    Aren't Canadian warmings seen as the harbinger of cold and blocked conditions (at least early on in the season) across NW Europe? Sure I read we haven't seen one in a while. If the GLOSEA is seeing a Canadian Warming event, it perhaps explains the returns that it is showing in this month's update for pressure anomalies through the winter period?
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    I noticed the CFS runs I've been looking at over the past month or so have predominantly suggesting temps at or below average for October with a high pressure anomaly not too far away to the NW or NE. With the anomaly being close to the UK it could be suggestive of frost/fog at night and pleasant days.
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    Could see my breath, just about, when going the shop at about 10pm tonight Temperature currently at 9.1C so down comfortably into single figures tonight and comfortably colder than some nights we had back in December and January already.
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