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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    Don't worry, I'd noted the same thing. The issue I have is I cannot recall an occasion in history where a west based -NAO was quickly followed by something more suitable for our shores. In fact nearly every WB event I've seen has ultimately led into a period of cyclonic weather for the UK. That is why I'd like to try and avoid it if possible!
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    I think I remember GP posting the other day about the strat ridge going straight through Greenland with lower heights either side (Canada and Scandi) as we enter December. Now that is the pattern we want to be seeing come to fruition. Winter 2010-2011 ended with a the arrival of a west based NAO...they tend to be pretty depressing.
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    There are a LOT of WB -NAO in the GEFS...just flick through them and you'll see. FWIW we don't want to see the trop vortex completely lifting out of the Canadian sector because this opens the door for an overshoot of retrogression. A smaller, daughter vortex over that way, a Greenland ridge and a Scandi trough would be the ideal scenario.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    Hi Will, My thoughts were never centred on any such thing..I think you're referring to my post the other day where I pointed out that the updated GLOSEA5 actually supported colder weather later in winter (Jan-Mar) period....
  5. Cheshire Freeze
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    Aye... On a slightly related note..I feel you've given us all enough hints as to where you feel we may be headed post this potential disturbed PV spell and I'm guessing that none of the modelling at UKMO towers is hinting at such a reversal (SSW)??
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    That is my main fear Ian..and the reason I want to exploit this weak PV as soon as we possibly can. It's all good and well saying patience required...but it doesn't always work that way...
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    This is the UK, barring exceptions we are always unlucky Also, we have to take one of those bites of the cherry...otherwise we end up with a nearly winter (like we've seen before) and before you know it we're crying into our cornflakes in March! I'm not saying we won't grasp a better opportunity as we move into winter proper...I'm just reminding folk how quick the winter season flies by and completely agree with Nick S where he says if it can go wrong it will as far as UK weather is concerned.
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    No but it illustrates quite well, I think, the importance of that initial push of WAA into the west Greenland locale that was on the 12z GFS. Yes, the general atmosphere may remain supportive of blocking but we will probably have to faff around a while longer now to get the correct blocking in place to benefit us. That's the point I was trying to make earlier. That WAA push allied to the vortex displacing east was THE opportunity for the foot in the door and to get us off to a flier.
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    Dogs dinner of a result Illustrates quite well, I think, the importance of that initial push of WAA into the west Greenland locale that was on the 12z GFS. Yes, the general atmosphere may remain supportive of blocking but we will probably have to faff around a while longer now to get the correct blocking in place to benefit us.
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    ECM has a stronger, flatter jet profile to the N of the UK Than the GFS 18z which is weaker and less flat- The differences will be telling as the GFS will probably go on to be blocked whereas I'm really not sure the ECM would evolve as favourably as some are seemingly suggesting.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    The GFS is nowhere near as bad as the ECM- even with the 'climbdown'. Nowhere near as good as the 12z but pressure is still higher around Iceland than either the ECM or GEM. I just hope it doesn't move further tomorrow
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    There's clearly ramifications in the closer timescales RE how that upstream low is handled...IF the ECM is proven correct then my old age comment about the ensembles being pretty meaningless will hold true because the GEFS are fully behind the GFS op in that regard. If they flip (as I've seen them do before) then in my eyes ensemble agreement and clustering is relatively useless as they just follow the flaw that caused the op to be wrong in the first place.
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    ECM 240 CFS daily run for December Uncanny similarities
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    Because the ECM output continues to look worse and worse. Not easy to see how we get cold from there at day 8 (in an easy fashion)..which leaves 5/6 days until that 2 week timeframe... We're a gnats whisker of a shallow trough away from a pretty big +NAO at day 8. This even more true with the GEM which was, quite frankly, hideous and quite possible if we don't get that initial amplification and drive of WAA northwards. I think you may be underestimating the importance of that in the overall progression.
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    Well if the GFS is wrong it's going to flip pretty much an entire ensemble suite in the GEFS....I'd like to say I haven't seen that happen before- but I have!
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    Why can we never just have some form of consensus one way or the other over these things...there's always something to overcome Nick!
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    Better angle of WAA at day 5 than was showing on the 0z...by a fair margin. Although by day 6, maybe not... Nick I think we could have a potential unfolding drama on our hands! When compared to the GFS at the same timeframe, the differences are stark
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    Yep and whilst we still have output like that appearing, I certainly won't be popping any champagne corks!
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    GEM isn't too pretty...had to check it said 2016 at the top and not 2015!
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    My lord, charts like that should be post watershed. Stunning doesn't even begin to describe that synoptic.
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    Here is our chance on this run to start to advect some colder uppers our way... Really is an impressive high that btw...
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    Oh I don't know...that low that travelled up through the UK from the south around the day 8/9 ,mark is doing a good job of trying to screw us over...
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    Must say, there's something quite depressing about a warm front heading in from the EAST at this time of year lol. All that blocking and we end up with +5 to +10 uppers trying to invade from the continent!
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    The 6z had a threat of wintryness for lower ground too, although there would certainly be no settling there
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