Cheshire Freeze

My main worry looking at the ECM, is just how we're going to lower heights over S & C Europe? They appear to be quite entrenched to heights over N Africa. Not something which is pleasing on the eye going forward.

Can get some decent snowfall from a NWly here. Agreed, frost is preferred to relentless rain but I would like some snow TBH (as would most I'm guessing). Also, as an aside, with the HP moving slightly throughout the runs frost won't always be guaranteed...I can see trapped cloud being an issue at times. 4-5C by day and 1-2C by night hardly fills me with joy.

The high just doesn't do anything...just sits there, even whilst the trop PV falls apart around it. At this rate I'd rather power up the jet and have it flatten the high away. Would get more pleasure out of lee NW'lys and transient topplers than having to watch HP sit over the UK for 2 weeks solid.

Still tedium at 240 hrs...

Ever get sick of us being the WAA path though whilst benefiting everyone else with the resultant cold displacement?

Not bad....HP builds slightly further N and I'm liking the amplification shown there

Unless, of course, summer is a washout...

Yep, just checked and you're correct. Only really last couple of frames though and far too far out to take seriously. Interesting nonetheless and something to keep tabs on.

I think we *may* be beginning to make progress in the mid term.... Regardless of the outcome of this run, the single most encouraging thing about the runs of the last two days is that the notion of the sinking high has been scrapped in favour of holding it in place and (very recently) hints of it gaining latitude once more towards day 9.

Hang on a minute, the main height anomalies were said to be showing to our N and NW on much of the modelling they were using. Instead we've got HP looking like taking up residence over us. You can understand why people are disappointed...there may not be that much difference in surface temperature anomalies but in terms of actual weather there is a light year of difference (HP over the top of us precluding the risk of snow!) Oh and ice and snow.. It's pretty obvious to me that a mid latitude feature was not originally the expected outcome...

0z GFS trying its best to carve out Scandi heights

LOL If perturbation 5 of the GEFS and the UKMO are trendsetters in the 144-192 hr timeframe then I'll eat a pair of my underpants...post worn!

Exactly...I'm more interested in the here and now than what might happen 3 weeks down the line. Classic case of things just not falling right for the UK over the next week or so.

Aye, doesn't quite make it again this run....modelling resolute with too much energy heading over the top of the HP

Really is getting close to tipping point on ECM at day 6. If it was to succeed, it would completely alter the mid range outlook.

Nice easterly coming to close out the run...just as was shown on the 0z @MR EXTREMES The easterly only becomes possible because the vortex has shifted over to the Canadian side. It's no issue because it will turn provider for snow events i.e spit LP systems into the Atlantic which will disrupt against the blocking over Scandi.

It's a shame we're starting this phase with the vortex over on the Siberian side Steve. It's sods law that we get a synoptic set up which is ripe for the development of an easterly but it's thwarted by low heights in the critical areas. Had the vortex core been in any other position, those Atlantic heights would have been sheared into Scandi, with the jet buckle allowing WAA on their western periphery thus allowing the Scandi high to build. In reality we're stuck in no man's land with the core of the vortex not allowing Scandi heights to build before the low heights then drain back across to the Greenland side, powering up the jet and preventing any Greenland heights. Sucker punch for the UK...

Yep...it's a real shame so much of the jet is going over the top and we couldn't eke out an easterly...there would be so much cold to tap into

It's better than the 6z in as much as the ridging HP gains slightly more traction...it just needs a smidgen more latitude (as did the UKMO this morning). If the core of the heights were just slightly more N&W it'd be game on.

Good agreement with last CFS daily run there....December mean-

I thought that...but I'm increasingly wondering (looking at the strat charts) whether what we're seeing is a complete overreaction of the modelling towards a shift back of the strat vortex from the Siberian side in the longer range.

LOL only takes til 336 hours for the trop vortex to attempt to split Day 16 chart is a cracker...E'ly on the way there. One of those runs you wish went on further, just for the eye candy! I do wonder if we'll see a further shift in the medium range as the CFS seems to be barking up the blocking tree over the past several runs

Even on the GFS, it doesn't look a happy trop vortex to me...it's being attacked on 3 fronts there really...doesn't exactly look the vision of health. I can see the AO tanking later on into FI on this run.

We just seemingly can't get a decent undercut. If that high could just gain an iota more latitude then it's game on as troughing could slice the heights and leave a cut off high of sorts to our N/NW. The UKMO almost hits that tipping point, but not quite there.

Unbelievably close to a very good cold spell here...most of Europe heading into the freezer. Also, note the jet recurve back westwards around the western edge of that trough (wasn't there on the 12z) which pushes the cold deeper into more of Europe