Cheshire Freeze

Means zilch if we can't get LP into the continent... The best bet I feel, would be low heights round the back door i.e down through W Russia and through E Europe

Frustrating....we'd be good to go here were it not for those horrid Euro heights. You can see the amplification upstream

I'll repeat, it's a fact that we are discussing what we see in front of us. It's a fact that the NWP modelling is showing less than desirable synoptics through into the new year and it's a fact that it's more than a touch hypocritical that you slate someone for posting a day 9 chart only for you to go ahead and post a day 16 chart and try to use it as evidence of 'potential'. It's also a fact that there is nothing on the horizon at present which could even begin to change the pattern that we're locked in.

In laymans terms there is absolutely nothing churning the atmosphere. We're stuck in the doldrums as it were. At this point it'd be better to have a stronger ENSO signature either way as it would, at least, allow for some diversity from the current set up. We just have no forcing from anywhere at present and until this changes we will not see a change in our fortunes. All we're seeing at present is a flattish jet running over the top of mid latitude features (one of which happens to be knocking around our shores). Every time the HP tries to gain some amplitude, the jet just rolls it back over again. Rinse and repeat. It can do this for as long as it wants and whilst it happens, our weather remains static.

It's not a proper Atlantic power up though, that's the issue- merely a temporary few days where things get a bit more lively. The issue is there's no way low heights can sustain in Europe where we need them because of that monster HP that is rooted all the way down into Africa as I've already said. If this was summer we'd be breaking heat records with that HP sat there pumping up plume after plume. It's the type of pattern that can last a season. I think we all know when the N'lys will start.

Look where the high has its foundations...it's been the same for a while now. Not a chance that is changing unless something comes along to completely change the set up. The optimism that initially looked to be there on the run up to the new year has all but dissipated. There's no dressing this up anymore. I'm beginning to wonder whether lowland southern UK will actually see snow before Feb. This shows how grim the situation is...look where the high is rooted to...yes, Africa A hot summer pattern in winter....

That HP is literally the bane of our winter in a nutshell. It can't get sufficiently far enough N so that we have a chance of advecting some cold uppers and it won't be blasted far enough away so that we can let a fully zonal outlook take over. It's literally eating up our winter and providing us with nothing but gloom in the process. It is perhaps the worst winter scenario that any weather enthusiast could wish for. So....bland....

We won't get any colder periods whilst we see heights resiliently sticking to France, Spain etc. It's the death knell for winter full stop. If we are to have a zonal winter, for the chance of cold incursions we want to see that HP as far S as we can get it. It's too far N across the continent this year to allow even transient PM shots with wintry showers across the country.

Will we ever get rid of heights to our S?? I'm reading Fergie's post and thinking maybe it's just one of those winters! No matter what happens output wise, that HP to our S emerges triumphant.

Thankfully, the GFS has eased away from the storm force offerings it was bringing to large swathes of the UK yesterday. Still need to keep an eye on the situation however.

Aye, no need to be alarmed. ECM tones down the storm so maybe alerts will not be necessary. Should silence the doom mongers. Am I doing it right??

Not much appetite for the storm in the GEFS thankfully. Increased confidence that the ECM is correct on this one.

The 18z representation looks worse than the Feb 2014 storm and that ripped enough trees apart round here and blew the roof off the train station. Coastal NW England looking at 100mph+ on this run.

Would knock the power out in a lot of places...not what I or any of us want on Christmas day. Though it would put the icing on the cake of what has been an utterly crap winter thus far.

Yep, looking very nasty again on this run. Widespread severe gales, storm force in more exposed locations.

Some of the worst storms we've seen in this country have been where lows zip through WSW-ENE as shown with the ECM. A la Boxing day storm 1998 for one. The GFS scenario is perhaps more extreme in terms of longevity as a severe gale SW'ly sits over the UK for hours

Wow...that ECM chart. Some serious potential for disruption if that comes off. Even the 12z GFS- you're looking at 60-70mph fairly widely here

It was me lol. I didn't post it though, mentioned it over a PM chat when he said he hadn't seen you in a while

Run the progression Nick. Heights would link up either side with weakening trough sinking S. Should eventually open the door to a bit of CAA from Siberia. Though all complete conjecture

Aye, something looks to be brewing back end

Yep, noted in the GEFS 2 days ago...

It's not about people being 'dense' as you put it. It's more an annoyance that people can just not come out and hold their hands up- i.e 'yes things didn't pan out as we initially expected for whatever reason....etc etc' but instead we get a rewrite of history and it's turned around on to those who 'misinterpreted what was being said'. I didn't misinterpret anything...the form horse mid November was HP to NW and LP to S/ SE. That's a fact.

1st Dec 5th Dec I think I must have slept through it? And if you're being pedantic, you could say that there is a risk at a 2 week lead time of snow and ice in any winter. You've missed the point entirely.

Aye.... Bang on....

Even if this opportunity is a bust, I think the E'ly will come sooner rather than later, Steve. Saw a post elsewhere that said the pattern thus far has been reminiscent of that you'd see in a drought summer and in drought summers you often see an E'ly manifest at some point. Have you seen the extended range GEFS mean?