Cheshire Freeze
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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze
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Deep FI but good consistency with CFS anomalies I posted earlier Cold enough. -
Well, if we still somehow get an E'ly from here I really will start to think that is the ultimate destination
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So after all that, we may end up with a UK high anyway This island is cursed I tell thee
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It's heartening to see the CFS churn out this sort of scenario run after run
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Day 7 GFS 6z
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A N'ly was manifesting by day 7 on the 6z...OK a NW'ly but you know full well what I mean. It wasn't at 2 weeks+ is my point and had been consistent for many runs.
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That's 15 days into the future! The difference is, the 6z had a second, more sustained N'ly, at around 168 hrs on the 6z. If something at day 7 can go up in smoke then forgive me for not being overly optimistic at something showing at day 15.
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Vortex in disarray and the UK still manages to find itself in a S'ly at 300 hours Completely academic at that range and not to be taken seriously but if that doesn't sum up the UK and its luck for wintry prospects then I don't know what does
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This FI is either going to be a classic or a massive disappointment given what we see at 192..
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Should get the E'ly here too on the 12z GFS Mucka...just a touch later than the UKMO would bring it To add to the confusion, the upstream pattern is actually more favourable than the 6z had it at the same time!
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Not only that, the entire ensemble suite! This is why I lend credence to what TEITS was saying the other day about following the ops in situations like this. Ensembles are next to useless and that's the 2nd or 3rd time we've seen this since November. If one of the big 3 doesn't agree at 144-192 range then have no faith in any output, even if the ensemble majority backs the op consensus!
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Ironic thing is, the UKMO could actually be better going forward than the GFS with the potential for an easterly going forward as I pointed out after the 0z UKMO run. Either way, we're going to be looking well into FI for deep cold/snow on this GFS run.
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At this point on the 6z we were in a NW'ly....on this run we're in a S'ly
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It means a longer route to deep cold. Two options if we want cold...it either needed to retrogress as per 6z or it needs to bugger off as quick as possible. We do not under any circumstances want Euro heights becoming the main player again with the jet gaining the upper hand across the top. Can kiss goodbye to 2 weeks of Jan at least if that is what eventually transpires.
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Yep a definite shift towards the UKMO of the past few runs. It has all gone a bit Pete Tong at 126 hours with that ridge (rather than retrogressing out west of us) slips back S through the UK
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You're right, this looks dicey Just watch the UKMO go towards the earlier GFS solution though...
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Well I'm off to bed. Will check the 6z GFS and 0z ECM when I get up. Would be nice to get a decent ECM to settle the nerves but yes, UKMO and GEM aren't great.
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Purely fantasy but vortex about to rip itself apart deep in FI
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Well there's one thing about the 0z GFS, we're almost certainly getting the Scandi high further into FI. Heights already building over the European trough at 198 hrs. Bitterly cold, but how many times have we been here with the GFS before?!
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Probably the GFS- It's always the GFS, seemingly! When UKMO is out on its own showing cold it seems to rarely pull it off. When it's the party pooper, historically it's correct.
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UKMO looks awful on the face of it at 144 hrs. However, funnily enough, I can see a convoluted way to get an easterly out of that. I'd rather go the GFS route though in all honesty. The less drama the better.
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Completely agree. Completely academic at that range but the ECM would have been a stellar run post 240 hrs.
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UKMO at day 6 doesn't follow the script this morning GFS at day 6 a lot better than the UKMO as it maintains that wedge of heights between the LPs that Steve was talking about earlier So...still no resolution to this one
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Very rarely happens though does it?! I'd love to know why the flatter outcomes shown are seemingly more likely to verify when there's a model stand off. There must be a reason.
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You are indeed correct. I noticed as they were updating that the ensemble mean is not as 'sharp' as the 12z suite offered up. I hope we don't see an ECM flip tomorrow morning! It is usually a bad omen when the 18z op or ensemble suite go the opposite way to what we'd like with a lot of teeth gnashing and toys out of the pram the following morning upon the ECM's efforts!
