Cheshire Freeze

The Metoffice have been reactive rather than proactive IMO this winter- something I mentioned a couple of weeks back. I think this is due, and has been due, to the lack of steering via drivers such as the MJO. They're relying more on model output...which has been all over the show.

It's OK, I was getting a bit confused myself

2010/11 was a La Nina winter was it not?

Completely agree. I don't see how 24 hr old initiating data can be of any use whatsoever.

We've been here time and again this winter so far. Each time people fail to learn from the past experience of stellar charts fading back into the status quo. There's nothing to discuss at this range given what we've seen so far. An easterly is a low <10% probability. The bit before that isn't even nailed down yet.

I suppose it is the logical way forward Nick given the way the ops are progressing. There is little to force a change?

I'm verging on spring mode already tbh. You know when you've just generally had enough?? This winter has bored me to tears already. Trouble is, I have a sinister feeling that this summer is going to be very warm/hot and dry which is going to cause issues with drought and will most likely perpetuate the tedium of on the ground weather conditions.

What's shown on the GFS (and much of the modelling for that matter) is not even reminiscent of a toppler of yesteryear...it's even worse than that. Some of the winters of the late 90's and early 2000's (which were barren years) would put this one to shame so far. That's saying something- the fact we're having to scrabble around for the merest hint of a wintry shower should speak volumes.

I'd be happy if someone could explain how -20 uppers can get down into the Atlantic at the same latitude as us (sometimes even further S) yet we struggle to get to -6 or -7 at 850 level. Will never understand it.

FI is out on Wetter. It's awful and SW'ly dominated. To get sliders you need much better heights than are being modelled on the 12z GFS.

A familiar tale of semi-promising charts disintegrating into the all too familiar as we head towards the reliable. It has been the same all winter. As it stands, the nail in the coffin is being hammered in for widespread lowland snow in S UK this winter- that's not being dramatic in the slightest, we just don't have any forcing to the prevailing pattern which means that ultimately we're still left with a broadly +NAO We're not going to see any widespread and lasting cold/snow with a +NAO Radiohead's post above shows the disintegration of the pattern in just 24 hours and is completely symptomatic of winter 16/17

In terms of today's output...I have to say, I'm slightly more optimistic today than I was last night. BUT, as Nick S has pointed out, we still need to get the removal of Euro heights ideally sub 120 hrs to make relatively sure that it'll be the eventual outcome. I'm not holding my breath just yet!

I'll look forward to our joint moaning session then 2nd week of March Although by then we'll probably be side tracked by the big Greenland high we'll be seeing in the models..

Look, the theme of this winter is we're constantly being fed crumbs to latch on to; time and again. If we believed FI trends/ensembles/long range forecasts etc we'd have all seen some snow a while back. I have no idea what this background signal is that the extended output is forever latching on to...but what I do know is that it is constantly being drowned out by something else- something which the modelling is not factoring in from the get go. Last year my have been bad but at least it was what it was...it never pretended to be anything else but crap! What can I say, the GEFS are next to useless in my very honest opinion...looks lovely with all of those snow percentages through into FI until you realise that the ensemble suite looked almost exactly the same 10 days ago for today. It's always out in FI this year, and even then it's nothing but 'potential'. Unless we see some MAJOR changes to the hemispheric set up via an SSW etc this will not change until changes in seasonal wavelengths force a change. I think we all know when we'll see the blocking reappear! It is that bad at the minute that I actually have NO certainty whatsoever that I'll even see a flake of snow this winter (that includes surrounding areas like Manchester...excluding the nearby peaks obviously)- how bad is that?! It's just not normal to be experiencing what we've experienced over the past few years RE snow. Historically even the mildest of winters had at least one snowy period.

I agree, horrible mean in the extended...not much room to work with there

Trouble is with the ECM and JMA, there isn't enough of a 'wedge' of HP behind that slider low to shut the door on the Atlantic behind. You see with the ECM (which almost makes it BTW) that LP just piles in again following the slider. As I said UKMO too optimistic...GFS probably too pessimistic on balance this evening.

'That ECM'

I could have backed it up quite easily had I actually seen the merit of such data collection. However, I thought it was widely perceived as just 'one of those things' and quite widely accepted as being fact?! Even Steve Murr has noted that UKMO vs ECM and GFS combo usually results in a UKMO win when cold is progged and UKMO goes against. The opposite is also true, I've never once seen the UKMO model successfully pick cold out against ECM and GFS consensus.... Ever.

Yep GFS over UKMO in this instance for me too. UKMO evolution just doesn't look convincing. GFS op and recent GEFS suites suggest we're in the long game again.

I've been through plenty of experiences and winters on here mate to know anecdotally that what I wrote is correct. If ECM goes with UKMO tonight then fine. However, if it doesn't, expect a UKMO backtrack tomorrow.

When the UKMO shows a route to cold and the ECM & GFS don't, the UKMO almost always backs down. When the ECM & GFS are the ones showing cold and the UKMO doesn't, it's the ECM and GFS that usually back down. 99% of the time the above rule is observed! Ergo, I think we're safe to assume the UKMO model is out on a limb at day 6

Now if that was other way round and was to scupper the cold, it'd be nailed on to verify. Sounds like a joke but I'm serious!

I get the feeling, looking at the farther range output tonight, that a cold zonal end game can be the minimum expectation. Suits me because it looks fairly likely at the minute that at some point we'll see a cold PM northwesterly....good for this location and something that I haven't seen for years.

Aye, that progressive we're being catapulted towards the next period of interest faster and faster- this is good as we don't want to be spending January stuck under SWlys and a resident Euro high

Control virtually identical to the op at 144