Cheshire Freeze

Yeah....it basically shows what we have been/are about to experience with HP to the S and LP to the NW (if you ignore the shading and look at the MSLP). Those height anomalies are rather weak to be basing a forecast of blocking on.

Can Forecast Sometimes?

No winter not over but we've sure been dealt a set back with how things played out through the second half of November. For the record, we were close to a SSW and would have had one had that last week of November Greenland block not failed! We were a gnats whisker away from the point of no return but all crumbled pretty quickly once that block failed to materialise. It had knock on effects all over the show.

In all honesty any synoptic situation which doesn't involve HP sat just to our S or SE has to be a winner at this moment in time, given what we're seeing unfold at present. As I say, even in that scenario of storminess we stand the chance of enough PM air getting into the mix to at least offer something of interest. The pattern we're enduring at present, in my opinion, is just about the worst we can see in winter i.e HP limpeted in an unfavourable position bringing days and days of nothing of note.

Ooops Sorry! No, more the point about the WAA at the time. 'I don't think you quite understand the effects going forward of this' i.e WAA and Greenland high fail. It's why I reacted so glumly to the downgrade of that general synoptic as it was obvious that it would have had a significant weakening effect on the vortex going forward had it happened. However, people seemed to refuse to acknowledge the importance of that first very important step en route to a cold first month of winter.

Good post Steve, however, I quite like the look of some of those Parallel runs from the GFS. Caught one earlier with desperately low thickness and uppers around -5/-6. Good enough for snow here in a NW'ly flow and definitely ripe for some active cold fronts etc. Infinitely better than this boring, static weather we're faced with at present!

People were bemoaning the 'negativity' by me in mid November when I was saying such things as the following- I'm convinced that episode was the 'watershed' moment for this December.

Can't say I've been impressed with any ECM product over the last month or so, with this whole fiasco. I certainly wouldn't want to be forking out for its services.

Either way, disparity cannot carry on indefinitely. I'm inclined to actually side with the GEFS on this one in the long term...Never thought I'd say that! I think the EC ENS will sharpen up in the next week for towards the festive week

One thing I glean from that is that seemingly the Strong/very strong Ninos are getting progressively further apart.

As the run ends, we're awaiting the next amplification episode upstream..will take one LP dragging warm air up the west of Greenland and we've got ourselves a cold spell. Very encouraging output from the 0z really as all the groundwork is laid Should the trend continue, I'd expect to see some tasty op runs soon enough

Watch out for the retrograde further into FI...not a gimme but certainly the potential down the line...

Possibly starting to get somewhere? Much more amplified Atlantic sector towards 192 hrs +

Not without interest hemispherically in the latter stages once again One of these times we'll filter that cold to the E/NE our way!

No, as I said a week or so back to you, I did not plump for a colder Jan and Feb per se...I was more trying to point out that the November update of the GLOSEA5 model did not, to me anyway, indicate a front loaded winter. Hence I was quite surprised this scenario was being plumped for with such vehemence. This winter, for me, falls into the 2012-2013 template...with perhaps a 1-2 week head start. Coldest period of winter from Christmas through to mid Jan (at the latest) followed by an average rest of winter. This followed by a colder than average March.

Yep, certainly within my focus for early Jan cold. Don't think it'll be sustained throughout January though, potentially quite a marked drop off back to mid latitude heights expected further into Jan and a possibly wetter and more unsettled Feb. I don't think anyone could really grumble if we had a 2-3 week window of proper winter potential TBH

Might be a few days yet IMO before we see the ECM op start to suggest something of interest at day 10. I think we're at the stage now where the GEFS are starting to sniff out a change but may be jumping the gun slightly. Christmas to New Year week is where the interest is for me RE cold & snow potential...transition period few days leading up to Christmas.

CFS consistently showing March to be blocked/cold

The extended ones will most likely show a dichotomy once more I would imagine.

Some very interesting GEFS perts coming along now...I'll take this one please Surely but slowly, the Christmas week potential pattern change begins to pick up some pace...and that's as optimistic as I'll dare go for now... There's enough in the ensembles to suggest that the trop vortex will, at the very least, come under some duress

I'll take this one going forward....epic...

Anyway....some pluses in the modelling today towards Christmas. Consistently modelled Arctic high by the GFS op runs A forerunner to the anticipated Christmas/New Year week cool down??

Look at heights to the S of the UK...sorry but you've not got a cat in hells chance of any meaningful disruption with a set up like that. Height are anchored all the way down to Africa! Couple that with a strong jet streak....Don't understand why the possibility is even being discussed. As I said last night, we're on hold now until the latter stages of December.

Yep.. However for me this winter is already looking like 2012/2013 over again. The GLOSEA5 update last month had me saying '2013' and the CFS is seemingly consistently going for January and March blocking. As I've said before, at no point has this winter looked like being front loaded to me. Mean little in isolation but current CFS anomalies for Jan & Mar A consistent theme has been for February to be more mobile. I reckon this is due to a downwelling of strong upper strat by that juncture. The March blocking signal I reckon to be due to a strong SSW/final warming. I'll take an educated punt here and say that the new year period will see a period of cold/snow, give or take a few days either way. How far into January this potential lasts is open to debate...

The number of colder runs increase, sure- but it's feast or famine looking at that. A continuation of above average conditions or a plunge to much cooler weather (which wouldn't be hard given the upcoming synoptics).