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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    I think the GEM is about to hit on a new pattern in upcoming runs...its 12z run looks slightly implausible to me out towards days 9 &10 *hint* attempted Icelandic blocking along with E European blocking divided by the skinniest trough you'll ever see...
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    As I said earlier, Will, The Jan-Mar anomalies for pressure look to me to be signalling the potential for a snow maker of a battleground between colder continental air and Atlantic LP systems. Just has that look.
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    It's no classic Cheshire gap scenario. Winds are too westerly so the only areas which will get the shower stream is Mid and north Cheshire northwards; Greater Manchester and the like. Reminds me of the '09 and '10 spells when the same thing happened. Winds need to be direct NW'ly for a true Cheshire gap streamer to set up which would push the showers right down into Staffs and west Midlands. You can see there is nothing remotely NW'ly about surface winds and steering flow would most likely be westerly.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    I don't bother looking at the percentage terciles...IMO they're about as much use as a chocolate fireguard given vagaries which show over and over again with temperature plotting and deviation from long term means in terms of anomalies presented. The only one I'd look at is the precipitation output. I'm personally much more interested in the MSLP anomalies...I can extrapolate probable surface conditions from that!
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    That GLOSEA run does not suggest a front loaded winter though. The potential for cold actually intensifies in the Jan-Mar time frame with the jet diving down through the UK and a strong block to the E... Looks like battleground UK to me on the above chart...the one that springs to mind is Feb 1996
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    Personally, that GLOSEA update is not for me...I'm looking at that thinking there would be frequent interludes of S'ly winds as low pressure stalls to the W and SW rather than running underneath the block which, may at times, be further S than Scandi. If anything, that run departs from the Metoffice narrative so far as it looks as if it actually gets colder further into winter/early spring.
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    Atlantic blocked by day 9 on the 0z GFS Hard to see the Atlantic powering up after this point on this particular run. Let's see where the blocking takes up residence towards the end of the run and whether we get to tap in to any cold uppers... We do indeed...bingo The GFS 0z then locks us into the cold up until the end of the run, with a slight readjustment and an even colder flow poised to head down from the N All in all, stunning output there in FI.
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    Rasping northerly towards the turn of the month on the 18z That would be some curtain raiser to winter 2016/17
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    Carbon copy run from CFS today for December Some tasty uppers too coming in 4-6C below LTA
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    Current CFS run
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    Beginning of the end of this more mobile spell at day 10...vortex should smash itself to pieces henceforth given the N hemispheric pattern Be interesting to see what it throws out latter FI
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    Oh, here we go..
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    Bit of a bonkers run to be honest...just look at all that WAA heading due N straight up through W Russia...would think that would have consequences through deep FI
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    18z very good IMO in context of recent runs...difference upstream from 12z is clear to see
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    Looking at the GFS output at face value I'd suggest that it would go on to produce a SSW in the long run but I'm not clued up on that side of proceedings...far more learned members on here.
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    Yes it's entirely possible to have a broadly westerly 'flow' across the UK which is of Polar Maritime origin
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    Westerly with potential to go Nw'ly. You can follow the jet with ease straight through UK up across into S Scandi/Northernmost Europe
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    It never looked like a goer in the first place. Far far too marginal.
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    DP 2.7 here....temp at about 3.5C far too high.
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    Yep pushed east at a fair rate. Hard to see how there will be any precipitation left here by 6am.
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    Yep at day 10 troughing slipping S and heights building over the top...an interesting FI coming up
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    LOL that's what I thought.
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    I am detecting a change of emphasis in the nearer term, blue. I think (given what Ian F has said) it may well be very end of Nov into Dec before we have another shot at trying to get a cold pattern developing.
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    No wobble from me BFTP, I just agree with Geordiesnow in as much as I think expectations need to be tempered somewhat. Even if the overall pattern of late Nov into Dec is a blocked one, we still can't be sure that the UK will benefit. Nice to feel that we at least have a ticket into the raffle though!
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    Yep I think we're going to have to buckle in for a couple of weeks worth of mobility. It was always in the script TBH. I think the issue is that recent years have had an effect on people and they are justifiably wary of mobility setting in as we approach winter proper.
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