Steve C
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Posts posted by Steve C
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Just poped into mo thread.we may only be looking at a 2 day mild blip before pm air floods back in.
Polar Maritime air isn't great for snow in our area. Nice clear / clean skies though.
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I can't work out whether a couple of posts here are being sarcastic.
A touch of light rain last night meant quite treacherous surfaces earlier. Now chilly, with sunny intervals. Typical January fare really.
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Look East forecast for tonight into tomorrow morning suggested the winds would be no worse than they were last weekend.
I saw the presenter make that comment. One that could leave egg on face, I thought, especially if a pronounced squall develops. I'm unsure of her credentials however. Is she just a presenter, or does she have more knowledge?
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so do you feel this prediction is wrong?
I must admit that I find the matrix there a bit strange. It's still biased towards low probability / high impact. Surely the probability must be fairly high now? (notwithstanding impact effects)
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People over hype every Atlantic storm that heads this way, but very rarely does it turn out to be as bad.
Eventually one day though the "hypers" will be right, but more law of averages rather than expert knowledge. Personally though I do always hope it is worse than forcasted.
Yes, very rarely though. I don't think this one will live long in the memory, at least in the South, although the wind will wake a few up here tonight. I'd think there'd be more hassle for those in the North, close to / south of where the low pressure tracks tomorrow.
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The fax charts are the best clue now( quite irrelevant now if the gfs is still blowing up a 90mph storm lol) the 72hr fax chart ( midnight thursday) would provide 70mph coastal gusting for Ireland,western and Southern England.A couple of hours of gusts around the 60mph mark for inland central and southern England.Northern England and Scotland miss the worst of the first swathe of winds,an increase for Scotland Thursday morning.
It remains a deepning low as it crosses our shores,then fills slowly as it move away from Scotland on Thursday.
Obviously the fax charts are the best guidance now, with their human input, but until models downgrade, they need to have a wary eye cast over them IMO.
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Awaiting the updates to weather warnings for the period. About Midday? Hopefully more clues then.
Carol has since mentioned coastal gales with gusts to 70mph. On the face of it, this would suggest nothing more than the type of storm we see most winters and nowhere near the scale of that which affected Scotland last week. However, some model runs suggest a fair bit more than Carol is forecasting.
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Carol Kirkwood just mentioned 'coastal gales' for the Wednesday storm and tbh the BBC graphics didn't look too scary, albeit the storm was still in the western approaches at run's end. It's intriguing how Carol's description was so much at odds with what some model runs are showing, less than 72 hours out.
It can downgrade away as far as I'm concerned though. I don't want to see a big storm this year for hassles it'd likely cause me this particular year.
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Thanks for posting. On the face of it, it looks like a serious blow - 20 to 22 metres per second equates to force 8 or 9 (multiply the m/s figure by 2.2 to get the rough miles per hour equivalent) One thing that puzzles me though is the lack of differential between inland and coastal / sea areas, especially with that 100m figure quoted. If it relates to wind at 100m above ground then it'd obviously be less serious than the 10m above ground level, which IIRC is where official wind measurements are taken.The 'missing link' or in other words the pressure/wind chart for midnight Wednesday going into Thursday. Credit to Icelandic Met Office
Nervy times ahead for people who don't like windstorms, whatever.
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Why wats it showing?
What charts are you looking at?
I seriously wouldn't worry about specifics this far out. I doubt any major windstorm has been predicted with confidence outside of a 5 day period, in our part of the World. You're fretting somewhat unnecessarily imho. My advice would be to wait for at least 48 and preferably 72 hours without stressing about specific charts. You have in your mind that we might be affected by a windstorm and there is indeed a chance it will happen but you have as much awareness as you need at this point.
Wait until the Weekend and the chances are that the storm potential will downgrade - almost certainly the current synoptic charts won't end up like the reality... And I hope your wedding goes very well.
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Hi CS,
Hi everyone, another winter, another round of snow watching.
Here in Yarmouth tonight it is freezing inside the house and the wind is blowing fierce outside.
A big hi to Piggy Palace, hope all is ok your end, got your message a LONG time after you sent it, we nearly lost Southernman he was in hospital for many weeks but has since recovered well. xx
Really good to see you posting again JennyJane.
You've been missed and we were concerned.-
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Got to say Matt, you are one of the most reasonable and balanced posters here / and in the Model Thread. You know your stuff and deserved your Model Host promotion. Do you find it utterly frustrating posting your thoughts there though, at this time of year?
Something is wrong (and I say it sincerely and hope things can be turned around) with Netweather and I feel sorry for talented posters like yourself. The site owners must be aware of my unease about this site - they must be having the same thoughts.
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The UKMO model is troubling too. A definite 'weather bomb' showing. From a large high pressure on 26th to an explosive low a day later. The UKMO solution might not be so bad for North Sea coasts as the GFS and Parallel, as it delays the onset, when tides are decreasing, but it might be worse for land areas.
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I think the ECM solution means no flooding and the GFS a flooding issue. It'd be nice to see cross model consensus soon (and towards the ECM solution) People might need to make plans, especially with lots travelling away for Christmas. Although the peak of the spring tides will have passed by then, there will still be a reasonably high tide by next Saturday (a bit lower on Sunday 28th)
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What is it with the model forum. You just have to laugh sometimes, they are now suggesting a weather bomb down the east coast and cause a massive storm surge. Come on guys be real, it won't happen., otherwise you will get Nathan Reo on the case. Maybe they are so dishearted that there is now sign of snow they need something else to discuss.
It's very easy to say that something won't happen (and most times at this juncture, it won't) but it'll inevitably happen at some point, whether it's forecast from this far out or sooner.
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I think nothing has really changed and people are again making the mistake of micro-analysing each run.
I think the potential for very dramatic weather is there for next weekend. Okay nothing may happen, but remember what learned posters have said here; don't get too excited or downhearted until the new working week.
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If the GFS (p) verifies as shown for the 27th, what areas would be affected by snow? Would the snow be a northern/Midlands event, or would the south get in on the action?
Pretty well everyone IMHO. The gales would be awful on North Sea coasts too.
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Cheers Dave, I'll look our for it.
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Well looks like Exeter prefer the ECM to GFS judging by Ian F's tweet of a somewhat festive nature this morning.
Well he talks about expected colder than average between Christmas and New Year, but I think his main focus is on possible severe weather in terms of deep lows and strong winds.
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A new Comet Lovejoy, designated C/2014 Q2, is heading our way out of deep space and out of the deep southern sky. It may brighten to 5th magnitude from late December through much of January as it climbs into excellent viewing position for the Northern Hemisphere, high in the dark winter night.
More from Sky and Telescope
At mag 5 this comet should be visible with the naked eye on a clear night and in early January should be easy to spot below Orion
Thanks for the information. I do like to try and spot these.
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I'm (slightly) uncomfortable with the way the ECM model is evolving for the relevant period. I don't like seeing low pressure moving from Iceland towards Denmark, as if a low pressure deepens in the wrong place, then this could spell trouble. The latest run has a filling feature by the time it reaches the North Sea, so on the face of it, not a problem, but I'll be happier when it shows this in the more reliable time-frame.
Not really relevant for this thread, but I downloaded the (underlying naturally occurring Sun / Moon - not storm influenced) tide heights for my nearest location for late Jan / early Feb 1953. As is known generally, there was a major storm surge overnight on 31st January. It is also known that this corresponded with a spring tide. What I didn't realise until today, but did, as soon as I saw the actual figures, was that this was a 'low spring' tide, rather than a 'high spring' tide. I think the sea level has risen naturally by about 10cms since 1953, but still, the figures here are very low for a spring tide in my locality - I quite avidly watch the figures. To prove the point, I downloaded the figures for a couple of weeks later and the difference with this 'high spring' is pronounced. I'd guess that a third of the underlying tides in Winter are at least as high as the 1953 problem tide. I found that somewhat sobering...
I'll also attach tide heights for my locality for the next week and the 'high spring' tide weeks in January and February 2015 for comparison.
Pre Xmas.pdfJan15.pdfFeb15.pdf
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Am I right in thinking the sea bulges or lifts under a low pressure system as it doesn't have as much weight/density above it in the air?
Yes it does, as per this Met Office link.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/storm-surge
As Backtrack has pointed out though, there doesn't seem to be an issue currently for next week.
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Hi and please delete if inaccurate or not appropriate, I'm very new to this.
Looks like quite a nasty low for Scotland and the north over Christmas eve and Christmas day, I appreciate it's a long way out, but might cause some disruption.
And some brief widespread cold a few days later?
I'd be more concerned about the depth and track of the low with regards to spring tides tbh. The high spring tides (rather than low springs, two weeks later) follow the New Moon currently and peak on Christmas Eve. Mind you, the spring tides centred on 23rd January and 21st/22nd February are even higher...
We also have the highest naturally occurring tide in 25 years on 30th September next year, but hopefully the chances of coinciding with a major storm are much reduced at that time.
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Am I allowed to be a party pooper?
I don't want snow over the Christmas period. I don't want gales or storms or anything remotely deviant from banal. We like tens of thousands of others are travelling over Christmas and we've been there and had that with the getaway chaos stories. This last year provided some of the grimmest travelling conditions you could have. I've seen too much genuine human misery out of this year in all respects to possibly wish for any more. Peace on earth and in the atmosphere too!Of course there isn't. You feel like the majority of the adult population in reality. I like snow and love to get out in it - especially if it's dry powdery stuff - but don't dislike people for having their own preferences.
This is one of the most annoying things about this site in the Winter imho (as well as cry babies and toy chuckers) - the amount of snide comments I've seen over the years towards people who like mild winters.
I don't want snow over the Christmas period. I don't want gales or storms or anything remotely deviant from banal. We like tens of thousands of others are travelling over Christmas and we've been there and had that with the getaway chaos stories. This last year provided some of the grimmest travelling conditions you could have. I've seen too much genuine human misery out of this year in all respects to possibly wish for any more. Peace on earth and in the atmosphere too!
Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat
in Regional
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Agree. Most recent forecast on News24 looked similar and agrees with TEITS NAE analysis. Poor for most of this region.
A crisp sunny day here in NE Suffolk. Nice. I'm already looking for the next cold spell tbh. Hopefully with more long lasting snow potential.