Steve C
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Posts posted by Steve C
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Just come back from doctors, no rain, no breeze, very warm, some were only wearing tshirts.
You'll probably have force 9 winds there, before midnight, so a big change coming.
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What's dew point looking like Saturday?
Pretty good on the face of it. Here is 18:00 from NMM.
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I think the weather over the weekend will be more notable, from a cold perspective and possibly for strong winds here too. I think tonight's event might be not a lot more than a nuisance sleep disturber, for the south of our area - more windy for more northern areas though.
We could be lucky that we're in a neap tide phase this weekend.
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The gusts in the southernmost warning are not overly strong at all with 40-50mph, 50-60mph for coasts, I suppose it's the outside chance of 70mph gusts for very exposed locations that may have prompted the warning to remain, the Met Office reduced the impact risk from medium to minor.
To be honest I don't know how accurate it is so can't really comment, the models do show Barney starts to fill as he moves over Ireland on his journey eastwards.
Thanks
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Is this site totally accurate? Surrey posted that the storm was at 978mb earlier and the latest is showing 979mb (obviously near as dammit, but marginally filling) I'm surprised if the filling phase is starting already?
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I'm right on (in...) the boundary. Tbh, I'd be happy to be in the weaker zone to the south, which only just justifies a warning, based on the windspeeds being talked about.
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I'm not even sure 70mph is in the offing TBH (except for westward coasts of Wales). Euro 4 18z doesn't look particularly potent to me and it zips through pronto. The February 2014 event was much more potent (probably even for the Midlands) than this 'event' looks to be.
Wasn't the Feb 2014 event the one where a red warning was issued for West Wales / NW England?
I don't think anyone has suggested Barney will be in that league.
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It looks like the area of strong winds will likely shift north from that expected yesterday. I wonder if the Met Office will update accordingly? IMHO, the need for a weather warning south of the Thames is now looking marginal.
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A pretty decent day here, with way more sunshine than I was expecting. Quite windy, yes, but a lot less than November usually throws at us.
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Oh the potential is there of course. There's always potential in FI
But reading the MOD thread the charts of yesterday have downgraded today. I think the GEM is still strong.
I'm not expert though.
Back to my location and the hours upon hours of rain has now started here.
I don't think day 6 is particularly FI, in this instance. The pattern is shown in the GFS ensembles, so to me there is a certain amount of cross model agreement. We are getting to the time when cold weather becomes meaningful IMHO. There's no point in a northerly plunge in mid October, as far as I'm concerned - it's just chilly and annoying then.
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No risk of meltdown currently, ECM back tracked this morning to a 12hr toppler giving only cold weather for the north.
GEM on its own this morning. I know where I'd put my money!!
I didn't see the previous run, but ECM shows a change from generally mild to generally cold, to me, at about day 6. Potential there IMHO...
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Yeah, not really enjoying the disappointed tone from some that there wasn't more destruction....
Yes, I was thinking the same. Freakish behaviour!
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I remember that, i was only nine at the time and I thought the world was coming to an end.. this is twice as bad.
A lot worse than twice as bad. Remembering that the force of a 200mph wind is 4 times that of a 100mph one. (200 divided by 100, squared)
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Overcast and drizzly here, so utterly tedious.
Very different from 28 years ago today; the most memorable weather day I've experienced, by a street. On balance, I'd take the tedious now, but the weather memories created were powerful, especially for a teenager.
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The chilly airstream today and for the last couple would be a dream for snowlovers in a couple of months plus, here near the east coast.
I'm finding the weather this week somewhat tedious though. One good thing is that the lack of anything remotely stormy this Autumn until now and for at least the next week is that the Autumn leaves should soon look resplendent.
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I like the more detailed resolution, definitely.
Looking at the 13:05 update (I've only just renewed my subscription, so haven't looked at previous times) the first smaller scale image looks incorrect, but I think as I zoom in it's fine (and ties in with the heavy rain currently being experienced)
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lets hope itv weather team domt get it thats a comicact at night
Yes, that's what worries me too. I don't know how TUPE works in this case, so maybe most of the current presenters would stay?
Worst case scenario would be a dumbed down and very short forecast, like ITV currently provide. Unfortunately the BBC is pretty good at dumbing down recently.
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Sunny start here in south Essex. Can't believe the news about the met office losing the BBC contract. Bad decision.
I agree. It'd soften the blow though, if most of the current presenters were kept on. A decent bunch at the moment IMHO, despite some trollish comments bemoaning a certain weather bias by some of them - I've personally not noticed this.
I reckon you guys will be part of the tender process though. I'd be surprised if not.
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Bigger is definitely better with shear.
Because shear stops a storm from producing its own environment it ends up letting in dry air and can cause a negative feedback cycle. Larger storms even if vulnerable to shear have more moisture and are better able to protect the core.
Of course we don't actually know what size is enough, for all we know Danny may cough for a bit then be fine.
You're overcomplicating, IMO. Think about how the north part of a storm in our hemisphere, has winds moving in a somewhat easterly direction and how it interacts with upper westerlies. Ne'er the twain shall meet...
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Lightning off the Essex Coast. Thunder heard too.
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anybody know why he left
I saw him on Al Jazeera (the only English Language tv option in my hotel) when I was in Antwerp at the weekend.
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Eno Eruotor...
I thought this was an obscure anagram, which I then googled, when unable to work out...
Doesn't sound the best tbh.
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John Hammond.
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I do find these type of threads a bit subjective - we're all different.
However...
Myself, even when a young and skinny lad, who did his paper round in zero degree temperatures (in a t-shirt, to show off tbh) and who still, in his mid to late forties, would be in the lowest 5% of people who suffers with cold, would like to see the cold weather 'heroes' on this site, aged to octogenarian status and see how they would cope?
Myself, I think these people are laughable - I know how elderly people really suffer with the cold.
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South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Steve C
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