Steve C
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Posts posted by Steve C
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14 minutes ago, jethro said:
People often complain about the endless, tedious autumn weather, 'when will winter kick in?' because of the METO arbitrary date. But if you look at the things likely to lead to winter proper starting, such as day length, sea temperatures, soil temperatures etc, December 21st makes far more sense.
The coldest 3 month period in the CET record is something like 6th December to 5th March. Meteorological definition is closer for us here, as simple as.
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6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:You posted a 360hr chart earlier on to show how zonal was likely..
I'd trust a zonal chart at day 15 more than an easterly chart at day 10, unfortunately.
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41 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
but so would mild and dry? SS though loves it wet, the excitement of posting washouts
Really? Maybe he should call himself "Summer Rain" then.
People say "mild mush" I've never seen "cold mush" ever mentioned. Gavin obviously dislikes cold at all costs and it's his right. Unless there's proper snow, cold precipitation is way worse, for me.
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Strange how some people here seem to think mild and wet weather is the absolute pits.
Okay, not ideal by a long stretch but instantly better than cold, with sleety rain for me. At least heating bills are much less for starters! ?
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54 minutes ago, laddie said:
Amazing turn round in ground conditions since the mini beast passed, tracks that were impassable mud baths Sunday are now firm and hard, moisture is being sucked out at a tremendous rate.
Interesting and good to hear!
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18 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:
Thanks to all the above!! What got my goat ( Sorry Lassie, yes I've got one too!!), is the member concerned has been on this forum, for a far shorter period of time, than some of us on here. They obviously don't understand the concept, of a community based thread!! Their comments were overly patronising and condescending!! And I really shouldn't get riled about it, as some of you know, I have plenty more important things to worry about!! I have a post to get through on the Sports Zone, anyway.
Sorry mods, had to be said.
So members of this thread, you talk about, what you want to and ignore, this individual!!
Regards,
Tom.
I don't think I've ever seen such a crass and insensitive comment on here, Tom. Just take heart that over 99% of people here are behind you.
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Morning.
Reverse psychology needed for Easter methinks. GEFS perturbation 15. It must happen, surely?
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10 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:
Great , thanks for getting us back to weather chat ! 5c here in Cobham sunny and breezy definitely feels like spring !
Cheers for the great insight.
If you click on relevant tabs, this site gives you just about the same information!
www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations
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Jeez Tom!
Hopefully that new treatment for HD might come in time for your daughter?
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13 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:
Well builder made a good start, yesterday, on changing bathroom into a "wet room" shower, adaptation!! After Social Services agreed to install this for me, after my Haemorrhagic Stroke.
But have had to start using commode and "jugs" again, for bathroom visits. Wonderful memories, NOT!!
Regards,
Tom.
I hope it all goes well for you and the later Spring and Summer can be much more easy and enjoyable.
One of my brothers had a brain haemorrhage, in his early thirties, five years ago, so I understand just how debilitating and life changing it can be.
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6 minutes ago, lottiekent said:
Interesting article by Bill Giles unhappy with what the BBC have done to their forecasts:
He's right. I think the Met Office, being the original providers, gave added value to BBC forecasts; with the access to different models and the pool of human expertise.
Now, frankly, there's little point in watching a BBC forecast - you might as well just come to sites like this, or work it out yourself!
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11 minutes ago, kentcloud said:
Early red sky at dawn has quickly given way to some light showery rain, the wind has fallen light and both the temperature and DP are positive. Back to some kind of normality at last down here on the coast of Kent
Was woken by rain on the windows at 5 here. By 6 it was merely overcast. Sunshine appearing now as the cloud departs southwest.
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1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:Day 6 from the GFS
GFS probably good enough with the low stalling just short of the UK and starting crawl east along the English channel, whilst 850s lift out it is still good enough for snow.
UKMO
This does bring a more maritime feed into the south though a spell of heavy snow is likely with it turning back to rain on the back edge, not overally mild behind, just less cold. We may get the colder air back south again though with that cold air extending east.
GEM
SImilar, heavy snow turning back to rain on the back edge, never overly mild afterwards with the cold air never far away in the south and never really leaving the north.
The theme is similar in terms of the broad trend, but the placement of the pattern by a couple of hundred miles north or south is crucial in determining cold and snowy conditions on milder conditions. Plenty of precipitation moving across the UK given the set up which could easily turn to snow the further north you are.
How does such a reasonable assessment get so few up votes, compared to the not knowing their a*se from their elbow contributors who plague this thread with one liners/ sound bites? Needs properly sorting IMO.
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1 hour ago, frosty ground said:
If you think a long term solution to social care in this country is relevant to social care in this country then fair enougth.
The elderly have been protected the most with above inflation pension increase and winter fuel payments,
the IFs states by 2019 the social care budget will have grown by 3.9% from its 2009/10 level.
Some cuts have been initiated by councils that priorities in other areas. The same councils that got bigger grant under Labour for purely political reasons had their grants reduced inline with the rest of the UK.
I'm not going to think about the consequence of something i have no control over, like I don't think about Earthquakes Tsunamis etc etc, Which I also find interesting.Did you put salt in your coffee by mistake this morning?
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6 minutes ago, chris78 said:
87 and 91! Last night there was a post in there saying coldest and snowiest period since the 16th and 17th century! If the sea aroind the uk doesnt freeze...im calling this a let down.
Saw that post. I was thinking the winter of 1684 compressed into late February and March! It'll play utter hell with our infrastructure.
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Daniel, I don't ignore anybody (unless they were stalking me for some God only knows reason) I think ignoring is a bit childish.
My analogy would be something like, say you were sitting at a bar, or in a cafe and strangers were talking about a subject you were interested in but said something you disagreed with. Fine to introduce yourself and state why you disagreed. They'd probably enjoy the debate. Would you really introduce yourself with "What planet are you on?" though. Really?
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2 hours ago, Daniel* said:
I don’t know what planet you’re on but it’s not earth.
The NWP is showing no sign of a spring burst of warmth. A very off post I must say.
I must say, your style of posting comes across as quite offensive at times...
I doubt you're even aware though.
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30 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Yes both ECM and UKMO are showing very cold uppers advancing east through north atlantic, sub 510 dam air encroaching, colder than what we saw a couple of weeks back, all down to the very cold air that has been in residence over NE Canada all winter, and I wouldn't be surprised if the stirrings in the strat are having this effect, there is potential for an almighty surge of frigid uppers to spill out from the Pole somewhere into the mid lattitudes once the warming does its trick - an arctic snow bomb perhaps.. oh gosh I'm normally more restrained than this..
Back to the here and now, lots going on, cold for the foreseeable, a very brief milder phase on Thursday blink and miss it, chance of further snow showers later in the week from the NW, similar to 17-19 Jan.
Sub 474 DAM air over NE Canada!
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11 hours ago, TomSE12 said:
Yes, that Snow Cup thing, seemed to jinx our snow chances!! Had a brain haemorrhage/stroke, in Sept.2015, so absolutely no chance of me, engaging in that again, you'll be pleased to hear!! Although, I feel a lot better, still feel very fatigued, at times. The Snow Cup, was probably why my brain, blew up, in the first place!!
Really did put a lot of work, into that.
Regards,
Tom
Sorry to hear that Tom! Didn't know that. With Chris dying it seems the damned thing was cursed!
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13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
January 1979 was colder and snowier than Feburary 1979 but both months were significantly colder than average. There was a significant cold snowy period mid Feb 1979 I think around Valentines Day thanks to a bitter easterly wind.
March 1979 was also cold and snowy with significant snowfall mid month for many with another potent easterly blast. Indeed the cold lingered throughout Spring, May 79 was very chilly at times.
Unlike some of the other cold winters of the 20th century, the cold was more associated with low pressure, with less in the way of dry high pressure cold, and there were brief thaws at times as well. More of a northerly influence than easterly.
It was more memorable than the last cold winter since in 2009/2010 which also was a more northerly than easterly winter, namely due to the heavier more frequent snowfalls which were often accompanied by gales, resulting in blizzards and drifting.
Would like to experience another winter like 78/79 been an age since we had a proper blizzard, we just missed out on the March 23 2013 blizzard.
By far the biggest snowfall where I live was in the February spell (the spell in the New Year was more significant for the Home Counties, where I'd been for Xmas, than back at home). I reckon slightly less snow than January 1987 but more than February 1991 (and nothing else in my life has come close...) The gale force winds caused more drifting than '87 or '91 for my area too. Again nothing else has come close.
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Just now, BarnetBlizzard said:
Made this account 8 years ago! I now live somewhere else!
I would not say -4 to -5 guarantees rain, especially with slack winds and heavy precip. Whether it settles on wet ground etc is another question.
Sorry and agree, especially if precipitation is constant.
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Yes - better run synoptically definitely so far but a very slight downgrade on already marginal uppers, slithers of -6c got into England on the last run, now above -4c in the south, that difference for your neck of the woods guarantee rain.
Barnet blizzard could be a euphemism for severe dandruff... After all, his location is mentioned as York.
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1 hour ago, reef said:
Spring Discussion:
Thanks
Really? Sounds over fussy, frankly.
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9 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:
Only disappointing if at D10 (way out in FI) this becomes a reality for coldies. Meanwhile D4, next Tuesday through to D9, a week Sunday will be a period of varying degrees of below average Temperatures (current thinking 3c to 6c below normal nationwide) and some wintry interludes across a broad swathe of the UK.
I'd be really happy with that chart! It perhaps is the wrong ECM day 10 chart to show the cold evolution (others have posted the more appropriate one). FI of course though.
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I'd call it an Arctic maritime flow personally.