Steve C
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Posts posted by Steve C
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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:
06z ECM still has a deep low coming towards the south at 90hrs, probably snow for Midlands.
That is not the main story. Winds on south side of low is 65kts sustained. Winds at 850hpa often give a clue to wind gusts, and those are at 100kts. Wind gusts probably 100-105mph at surface. Severe wind storm rather than snow would likely be the case.
Agree. This is one to really watch for the strength of the wind. I guess we'll know a bit more about the potential this evening.
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Sustained cold snowy northerlies are very rare for my location. 2010 was the only one I can remember - I can't remember back to 1970. Half the problem is that northerlies just don't sustain - they become modified by warm sectors etc. I never have great excitement for them.
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46 minutes ago, karyo said:
A continuation of gentle downgrades.
Yes but a large shovel of salt needed too.
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29 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Nah it will be a greeny block this time, and I don't think it's to far away either. Already some sings in the EC. The north Atlantic high comes down, and will meet a ridge sent up by the Azores, behind the second Atlantic low.
Personally I'd like to see both - a broad ridge from North West Russia to Southern Greenland.
If we discount the next 10 days, due to the Atlantic spell, we are starting to run out of time for prolonged and sustained cold though. Sure we can have potent short spells until probably early April and snow that will quickly melt afterwards for even longer.
In the CET record, if the parameter of a CET maximum temperature of <1C is used, there have been about 165 days in February in the record (from some time in the 1870's) compared to 20 in March - I think 3 were last year.
Therefore for me, late mid February to early March please. I'll be looking for warm Spring days afterwards, much more than frost and snow.
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14 hours ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:
Some of the best snowy pics I've taken in a long time. A good 8-12cm of lying snow today. Beautiful in the sunshine. Leith Hill, Surrey
Nice to see you were at large . Great photos!
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29 minutes ago, slater said:
Let’s all breath , why an earth the people In the model thread still wanting a mega freeze.? I just don’t get it they have hardly mentioned what’s happened in the last few days . I’m ready to really annoy them and tell them I’m looking for spring like weather..... roll on the warmth!
I wouldn't worry about them. All harmless, in that whatever they wish makes zero difference to eventual outcomes.
Mind you I find it very strange when a few are posting early morning, during the day and in the evening for weeks on end. I dunno, awaiting every model update... Something amiss. Would do my head in! Harmless though...
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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
sw England not great away from the moors and wales v good too …… buried may be a little OTT …… dp's are marginal more than i'd like them to be for widespread non thawing snowfall
A sane post. Thanks!
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20 minutes ago, Snowman. said:
But then us southerners lose out on all the snow!
Problem with these set-ups is that some will win and some will lose and there is just nothing we can do about that. Everything further south means the uk as a whole stays colder for longer but the snow risk is pushed further south.
Yes and we (most here) don't, as a rule, want a shift to lows tracking further north. The danger then being that everyone might miss out.
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Looking at the updated models, I'm wondering whether this will end up being the Winter of great disappointment?
I still think we are likely to have a proper cold shot, maybe mid Feb? However I was very confident (70% chance) that the same would start from about this weekend, towards the end of last week.
Oh well, worse things happen at sea! At least we haven't had destructive winds and property flooding etc. I still think we'll have a decent cold shot, if not anything like 1947!
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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:
Where i will note my steadfast points...on nxt weeks events!!....
If you're going to do that, please make sure you include your postings for the last 6 weeks as well...
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9 minutes ago, MKN said:
Doesn't make one ounce of difference. You will often see they all pick up on a slight change and all of a sudden it's a completely different outlook. These scenarios over the last 15 or so years I have been watching the models are of course closely watched. One minute it's snow for the Midlands then it's the Pennines then moves back south then ends up in everyone moaning as it goes into France for example all within the space of 3/4 days. You can't count on the same reliability as you can in a typical westerly pattern. FI is around 48-72 hours imo.
Maybe an example of chaos theory / butterfly effect ?
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Not exactly a bad chart is it! Not to say the ECM is good beyond that but does show there is still potential in this setup still...despite all the winter over brigade.
Yes, I suppose you can take that from it.
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11 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Any charts for this?
Probably something like this. Undoubtedly rubbish though.
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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
Ah, but when you do get it it sure does deliver...Has all what fell in February 1978 melted yet!
Probably not in Greenland.
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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:
No idea if any pedants our there corrected the detail Kold but you need to multiply the slp by 0.87 (rather than 1) to give you the actual number to subtract/add from the heights
Is the 0.87 factor just a good rule of thumb? I'm thinking pressure doesn't increase / decrease in a linear fashion through the depth of the atmosphere. Would an extreme (say) 950mb or 1050mb surface pressure test the 0.87 factor quoted?
Just interested, as I've wondered about this previously.
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41 minutes ago, danm said:
Feb 2009 Thames streamer was powdery. Also don't forget Feb '91!
Yes, wrong kind of snow etc, but he might be young...
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9 minutes ago, snowice said:
I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it spoils the enjoyment!
I quite like the split tbh. At least this thread seems to be for those with a cold bias. I found the stick that people like IDO took for making cautionary and frankly balanced posts annoying (the evidence so far is that he's been closer to the mark than many)
Most people here in Winter seem to prefer the ramping style posts, so the split makes sense to me.
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6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:
Winter is not over in January, does anyone not remember Feb 86 a foot of snow in Edinburgh from the east sticks in my mind,,,,I still see a very snowy February coming up which is still a winter month normally the coldest too
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Yep, the coldest month in my lifetime.
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14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
Absolutely! Tonight’s ECM has no effect on the weather whatsoever!
Jesus H! Not what I was saying at all! A straw man argument if ever there was one! This is a model discussion thread...
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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
All those of us who don't believe computer-models control (or even influence) the weather, in any way, shape or form, I suppose?
I think I know what you're saying but can't be sure... Hopefully you're not saying just look out the window or rely on a modern day Bill Foggitt?
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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
All these comments about the ECM not being important tonight - are fundamentally incorrect.
Although I would add its the ECM + Mean thats important
Why ? ( some of you scream )
Because of 1 simple reason, its track record over the GFS on US east coast storm tracks.
It knocked the GFS for six this summer for hurricane tracks inc the storm that went into the Carolinas -
So if the ECM persists with its inward track of the storm rather than the flatter 'sweep' out to sea then theres a high probability that its correct..
The only caveat is the UKMO, since 2012 when it called it correct I will never throw 100% behind a solution unless UKMO is there.
UKMO tonight is very snowy 120-144, the UK thickness charts are aub 526 DAM & the slider will bring snow like the ICON-
Its amplification signal is slightly weaker but alligns enough ridge to assume 'any' solution is possible for day 7...
Eyes down for the ECM... Especially 120 Tues-----
Tuesday is the peak probability snow day-
Who's saying the ECM isn't important?
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18 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
still a very good run from GFS.
I did not expect to be driving through a heavy snow shower this morning either! That was not forecasted at all. So let’s watch these next few days actually out of the window/garden, as some surprises could crop up! If timings are decent, then a lot of us could wake up to snow on the weekend.
Sorry, that's fake news. The fleeting snow had been predicted for several days.
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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:
Hairy for N sea coasts though...
Yes, with high springs then unfortunately.
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32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
No just telling it like it is ! I don’t do spin . Dads Army you know I’m far too young to have seen that ! I wish !
And long may it continue! I won't pretend I understand the dynamics of your analyses of upstream patterns but I accept them.
I like your reasoned postings a lot more than so many of the hyperbolic types that infest this place in the Winter and will seek them out on my visits here. Obviously there are other superb posters here as well mind.
If a person took at face value the number of day 6 etc. changes to / continuations of cold spells that are posted here and those events happened, the Winter of 1963 wouldn't stand a chance!
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Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted