egret
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Posts posted by egret
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2 hours ago, nettie said:
Picking up here.
Hope no one was in it
Severe wind?
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7 minutes ago, MAF said:
so, here's a question I may have asked before. And hopefully model related. Does anyone ever look at a day 10 chart and then when day ten comes along compare it with the predicted chart for that day?
It would be really interesting as to the percentage of correctness a day 10 chart gives, say, over a month for example.
As some may know, I don't give much credence to anything past 5 days, and sometimes even three days ahead. so would love to see some percentages of past those days that a model has predicted correctly, albeit, even a close semblance of the 10th day that was forecast.
I haven’t done as you describe but it is very tempting.
I sometimes wonder if the best way to forecast at ten days out is to go for the opposite of what the charts are predicting!!
just a brief comment on the ‘mid February is end of real winter’ thinking.
whilst that is probably true for most of U.K., down here on the South Coast our best snowfalls are commonly at the end of February or even March. I put that down in part to the sea being at its coldest at that time of year, despite the sun being much stronger.
I like others am surprised and perhaps a tad disappointed that the SSW has not resulted in easterlies showing by now in the models for the end of January.
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Don't worry I have cracked it - turning off station one and turning on station 3 ( to match the channel 3 designation) did the trick.
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I have bought a second hand Vantage Vue and as a start just want to get the station to talk to the console.
It appears that a signal is received on channel 3 but nothing shows on the display. I have it set to receive station 1 but had assumed that the setting should be station 1 channel 3 ( not station 3 as channel 3 if that makes sense)
any ideas what I may have done wrong / need to do to get the display to show data?
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Data from Photovoltaic Generation is useful for comparing 'brightness/sun hours' year on year for each month. Last Autumn and winter has been below average here in Puddletown but these past few days should be redressing the balance somewhat. ( I think that data set is only about 10 years old)
I imagine PV output provdes a good analogue for plant growth / photosynthesis.
It will be interesting to see if the absence of aircraft contrails will make a discernible difference to generation. Certainly it is nice to see clear blue skies again.
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Hawthorn hedges coming into leaf along the roadsides today and hedge sparrows busy nesting during the week ( collecting fur brushed out of our labs coat and left out for the birds)
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I remember it as Feb 87 - a number of ice days and deep snow was close to the Thames (lake effect?) from Rettendon and Northwards it was only a couple of inches deep but blowing around each day as it wa so cold and dry.
That August we had flash flooding ( our village was cut off for a couple of hours) and then of course the October storm so a memorable year in SE Essex.
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Oh and I can add there are a reasonable number of wild primroses coming into bloom on some road and path edges.
Blue tits have started nesti building in their box.
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Great swathes of snowdrops round here are now in full bloom, chives are up and ready for harvest but, maybe most telling, we have had frogs 'calling' in the pond outside our house for nearly a week now. That is a good three weeks earlier than normal. Let's hope they don't get caught by a cold snap.
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Reading the above (all of it!) with interest as the 'science' tends to get referred to in the media (how accurately?) but not published at length.
Reference is made in posts above to the valuable stabilising effect of ice melt upon temperatures, and the impact of losing the latent heat element of ice. To what extent will this be offset by that heat behind adsorbed by latent heat element of water being turned to vapour?
Trees are a major device for doing this as they can tap water stored below soil level. For me levels of afforestation remain a primary concern but I wouldn't love to see the calculations.
Once ice retreats we must surely expect increase in afforestation especially in Northern Hemisphere and presumably greater rainfall globally?
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Fascinating.
I confess the bit that puzzles me is the apparent mismatch between historic studies ( ice and sediment cores) and current work which seem to give different projections.
Is there close correlation between the two methodologies for the 20th century or are pollen analyses in modern times perhaps overly corrupted by large scale agricultural practice?
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9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
That must be highly unusual for your neck of the woods, cheese?
I've managed 5 here. Poor compared to last year, but not as bad as 2018.
I'm on my 5th month in a row for 100mm+. January is currently as 115mm.
Do you have any comparative data on hours of sunshine monthly from October to end Jan?
my impression for Dorset i s that we may be nearing a record low for that period - when not raining is has generally been about 100% cloud cover. Very few bright sunny days and last week possibly the first 'nearly dry' week through that period?
what other counties similar?
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46 minutes ago, Airedalejoe said:
Absolutely spot on, some of the comments in here are comical.
Maybe also depends on where you live? In Essex I can only recall two winters between 1962 and 1980 when there was not at least one day when we went tobogganing at some point but often it only lasted a day and could be wet snow.
We generally chose to go out tobogganing after dark when it refroze ( and still do given the opportunity, despite ever advancing years and generally mild weather here in Dorset)
I agree that a week of cold and snow was the exception rather than the rule - maybe one in three or four winters.
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2 hours ago, egret said:
Yes the rainfall radar makes interesting viewing today which a very narrow and clearly defined line on the very edge of the cold front - this has still to nuddg e past us here - currently claggy drizzle and 14.7 but expect that to change dramatically over the next hour.
Temperature dropped from 14.8 to 9.0 while I was walking the dog for 30 mins - I had to get out to feel the change!
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Yes the rainfall radar makes interesting viewing today which a very narrow and clearly defined line on the very edge of the cold front - this has still to nuddg e past us here - currently claggy drizzle and 14.7 but expect that to change dramatically over the next hour.
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Hi egret.
Yes. That record stood for a very long time, a slightly unusual one for the location, I would have thought?
I remember my Dad telling me about that record when I was little. I always thought the same as you regarding experiencing it.
Hi Mapantz
Yes, if you haven't visited the village pub in Martinstown it is worth the price of a pint just to read the newspaper cuttings and see the photos on the wall. Fortunately the valley isn't steep so they did not have the torrents that occur in Devon and Cumbria.
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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:
No showers here since this mornings deluge. I wonder if I can obtain a new daily rain record with the rain moving this way? 34.2mm to beat on this station. My all time record was in excess of 50mm back in 2012 on a different weather station.
Just found it..
Still a tad shy of the 300+ mm 24 hr rainfall in Martinstown back in the 1950s! I would have loved to have experienced that day, I think it was before Global Warming really kicked in so I suppose on a weighted equivalent we should now be looking for daily figures of 400mm to 500mm to give an equivalent record.
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On 22/01/2019 at 18:25, Decemberof2010 said:
And if you just rotate your screen 10 degrees to the right the PV has become a squirrel
Two general points ( sorry - unrelated to Dec2010 post but I cannot remove that link!)
1. Re the SSW, as far as I recall it's timing and extent was well modelled. Until the second week in January the ' better informed' posters were very clearly saying the outcome very much depended on where the polar vortex bucket spilled. Yes it spilled into USA ( as usual?) but that was not a certainty and many of us hoped that would not be the case. A useful point for analytical review later.
2.this weeks snow and cold have actually been well modelled for the South Coast - even the stalling centre of the low and associated circulation. It would quite frankly be ridiculous to expect the precise (+/- 50 miles) centre and drift of that centre to be better predicted than it was. Meto amber warnings are not issued casually and both their general location and severity were fully justified in my view.
On other such occasions the low has drifted even further South and missed the UK entirely.
Even the snow accumulation maps have been pretty good although localised variability has been notable - but we use the term now casting for snow for good reason.
For once in a decade I enjoyed ace tobogganing in -1c temperatures yesterday ( near Blandford) and this morning the snow remains well frozen and for that I am grateful. The altitude there gives 2c advantage and helps in marginal conditions. By Dorset standards this amount of snowfall was a once in a decade event.
As for the outlook I am not giving up hope - some of our best snowfalls have come in the last week of February. The current week was forecast to be mild mush for the South from about two weeks ago if my memory serves me right yet the model outputs turned round almost overnight with about a week to go. Nothing to say this cannot repeat.
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3 degrees and raining here near Dorchester. wind picking up
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A quick visit to the MOD thread and it seems the New Year party has moved on. We had a round of Blind Man's Buff earlier and sat down to the table for Jellies and Trifles yesterday, but it looked as though that might get a bit messy so I popped outside for a breath of fresh air.
Just returned indoors to find that the games have started again. This time its pin the tail on the donkey. This one is such great fun so I must stay and watch!
Taxi has been booked for the 27th as we don't want to get stuck in the snow after that.
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21 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:
So if you say 1947, 1963, 1987, 2009/10 thats about 1 really severe winter every 20 years give or take so absolutely it could happen again - when is a different matter altogether !
Joe, I think if you align those years with records of solar minima there is a very close correlation. The reason I have been awaiting this winter for the last 15 years and will be gutted if we don't get a notable spell of wintery weather.
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3 minutes ago, egret said:
Just saw a little grebe while walking my dogs. He spent most of his time under water.
Does that tell us anything?
Oh and I should add I was training them to retrieve across the river at the time - I suppose that might be called a Controlled Run.
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4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:
Does anybody know which way the grebes are facing?
Just saw a little grebe while walking my dogs. He spent most of his time under water.
Does that tell us anything?
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Dont worry Jethro - now is the time to contact Wandsworth Council and book a pitch for your Minestrone Soup and Jacket Potato stall at Putney (on the Thames). Those charts suggest to me that this time it is coming!
Trust me there will be Mammoths roaming on the Somerset Levels by the end of February!
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion
in SW and CS England Weather Discussion
Posted
We had a gust of 54mph at 18:00 along with rain. We are slightly sheltered here so wind speed was probably 30% higher on the exposed side of Weymouth.
By comparison the peak wind speed in storm Eunice was 61mph on our Vantage station, again about 30% less than exposed locations.