egret

Borderline sleety snow here now. 11 to 12 cm lying on lawn away from the drifts. About to go up to the head of the valley tobogganing and expect it to be somewhat deeper and drier there, maybe a bit too deep for good tobogganing!

Oh well it had to happen - please accept resignation from my 2013 membership. Off up to the hills tobogganing now!

where is that little blue spot in the middle of the deep pink, Nailsea way? Whoever is there might feel a bit cheated! LoL! This one is a real nail biter for S Dorset , yesterday the A35 between Dorchester and Bridport was severely held up with a dash of snow and ice - and that wasn't even on the forecast. Perhaps Highways were saving the salt for tomoprrow night. Itt will be Interesting to watch the radar from tomorrow afternoon onwards

Met office have just issued a severe weather alert for SW UK - snow on Saturday, but only for E Wales and Midlands, bottom edge just to the North of Cardiff

Presumably what we have are two possible outcomes and maybe both could be produced by either ECM or GFS, it just being that on balance the probability falls one way on ECM and the the other way for GFS. This being so we must surely consider both. This is where trends and ensemble support comes in, leaving GFS on the face of it 'wrong and likely to change' in the face of wider view of probabilities, but nonetheless 'respected and one to keep an eye on' as a possible(if less probable) outcome? If each model could present the range of possible outcomes and probabilities I suspect we would all be even more confused and perplexed! The current position is surely is to be expected early on in blocking situations where UK lies in the borderline (battleground) location. Once the SSW impacts (midweek?) I would expect us to be more firmly within the Continental zone and less vulnerable to variations associated with Atlantic influence. (i.e mainly cold and dry except for 'eastern seaboard' areas or possibly South coast if the air moves in from SE. Please put me right if my understanding is incorrect.

Hi QG, your comment echos my own thoughts. All the arguing in MOD does my head in. Recalling the huge pendulum swings in 2010 when the November major cold (and later December snow in the SW) only firmed up at very last minute. In fact I have a bit of a liking for models to sway away in the preceding week as they so often swing back at 48 to 24 hrs timeframe. The SSW commentary and incredible warming that we saw suggests to me that this event could be different from the normal and as such we could be facing a classic two week cold spell with chance of SW getting decent snowfall from any lows that venture along up the English Channel or down from the North. I will remain 'chilled' (sorry for the pun) until Mid day outputs tomorrow which should give reasonably reliable detail for the weekend and greater certainty as to what is likely follow. Gut instinct is that the probabilities still rest at 40%+ for 5cm snow to areas South of the M4 within a week and 10% chance of considerably greater depths. Hopefully Saturday morning will see me waxing the runners of the toboggans!

Way off topic but that chart would make great set of place mats for the dinner table! LoL!

It will be interesting to see if Countryfile weather forecast today has had time to assimilate information from todays run, maybe they will add a line at the end saying keep an eye of current signs of possible changes to cold just before Xmas.

Ian, so glad you reconsidered and quite understand (an indeed respect) your original decision. It is really important for the likes of me to be able to balance some of the more extreme (but improbable) possibilities with the experienced judgement of professionals such as your self and the more expert amateurs. Somehow we need to make space for respect even within short one-liners!

Some good news, I was more concerned about IF's absence than the absence of an Easterly!

Squally spell passed through here about an hour ago, I wasn't expecting such fierce winds - did not receive a Met Office warning so i don't know if it was stronger than they expected also. I think gusts peaked at about 50mph.

well if that chart is correct we shall be cooking xmas lunch over open fires - plenty of fallen timber and pretty few power lines!

better close this thread now - with latest synoptics I am wondering if it is technically possible to ramp, at least i don't think there are suitable words in the English language!! LoL

I have not looked back at the model outputs for a similar period in 2010 but, from recall, we were seeing fairly similar ebbing and flowing of chances for cold. In the end and apparently against the odds the cold emerged as if without warning. I cannot help wondering if the volatility in relatively short timeframe which we have experienced this week could end up with a similar rapid firming up into a very cold spell. I wish i had the time to dig back to compare the detail.

Excellent description Chio, helped to bring focus to my understanding also!

Have you noted that squirrels are not fond of swimming? You know winter is coming when squirrels wear wetsuits!

because people are now saying that it isn't coming after all - LOL! (give it time tho)

yes, glad I still have an open fire option for when there are power cuts - as supplies get ever more reliable we tend to take these things for granted and forget what the weather is capable of throwing at us. Many of us also still rely on overhead lines for internet and mobile phone network also is reliant on mains power so freezing rain scenario is a credible risk

The other point is that in recent years we have got used to snow and ice being cleared by the efficient and well managed use of salt by the gritters and as was shown in 2010 we rapidly came perilously close to running out (down here on the south coast i believe we were within a week of that) and were only gritting primary roads. Many people living on side roads were simply stranded for days. It is for this reason that I am convinced that we would be in real trouble if we were to experience a '63 winter. As others comment above our local resources have changed and we may have become a little blase as a result of a number of relatively mild winters. I believe Councils have invested in rather more salt stocks and spreading equipment over the past couple of years but I still doubt the sufficiency to cover more than 6 weeks of real cold.

cos blokes' top lips are getting hairy ( well Chris Evans' is at least!)

relatively calm, drizzly shower and gritters out as I came home this evening. sorry but no firm data!

OK CM , I respect your viewpoint. Interestingly I lived 5 mies from Chelmsford in 63 and a few years later walked home from school in Chelmsford when the buses stopped running due to snow. I can assure you that we were cut off for more than a week in 63 and believe we would fare no better now. (my belief, but not necessarily shared by others) Take into account factors beyond snowfall - severe cold reduces the effectiveness of salt and wind moves snow aound. Hedgerows are gone from many roadsides and traffic is now much greater causing obstruction to snow ploughs. This is why I fear disruption for longer periods and doubt our ability to cope if that occurs.

as we found in 2010 the main problem is bulk 'just in time' supply regimes for supermarkets. If major roads are disrupted for more than a week there can be real problems. There was a different supply chain in '63 and greater storage at point of supply. Energy supplies are pretty similar but I do wonder what capacity teher is within the electricity industry to dela with a widespread 'freezing rain' scenario bringing down national grid pwer lines (as I think France had a few years back)

yes, we were just watching this in the office. It is getting more pronounced and crisply defined as each hour passes but would expect it to ease a bit as it passess to the East of Dartmoor. Not sure If I would bank on that so will keep watching later this afternoon - probably hit us late rush hour!

add me too please