egret

<p>Just started chucking it down here also - 5 minutes before I completed clearing the hedge clippings, typical!</p> <p>Very little wind though.</p>

Bingo! (ok a bit IMBY there)

moderate rain, thunder and lightning now, centre is still to our East Glad I brought the 'perishables' in earlier We have a litter of young puppies so it is baptism of fire for them! (they have been out in the garden all day long for the past three weeks so might not appreciate being kept inside with flashes and bangs outside. fortunately they are asleep just now)

some lightning flashes to our east but no thunder heard so this might be the cell w of Poole - probably over the Purbecks

There is a problem with this in that the temperature that ones body senses is a combination of air termperature and radiant temperature. I.e two people in the same room and same air temperature will feel dramatically different temperatures depending upon the temperature of surfaces around them. Sitting in the sun and sitting in the shade being the most dramatic examples. Hence in Southern Europe they have hard wall, floor and ceiling surfaces which cool down overnight and stay relatively cool through the day. We tend to have soft floor and ceiling finishes that heat rapidly and add to discomfort in hot spells. For those who are active, humidity is also important as this effects the degree to which sweating helps reduce body temperature. MPs need to wise up if looking to bring in statutory maximum temperatures.

Going by Netweather forecast for my postcode the temperature will not get above 18c until next Monday. I think something may be wrong with the software although it is slightly cooler this evening than recent nights

Its not uncommon for ferrets and rabbits to share a burrow , and not necessarily during a flood! Might this be evidence of the earths first gamekeeper? LoL

Talk about plumes is all a bit hasty for me. Late July through August is when i usually look for hot moist conditions brewing in the Pyrenees and heading North.

ABNS, (PM you beat me to it) - I agree. Those looking at historic records of solar cycles predicted that 2008 onwards would be cooler and so far they appear to be spot on. What is more challenging is to ascertain why, the mechanisms and just how they interact to produce this effect. Still and awful lot of research to do - lets hope that vanity and politics can be kept out of the way when Met Office meet up so that genuine science can prevail.

Hathers, I agree that there does appear to be a trend . Unscientific I know, but for me there does seem to be a link with cycles in solar activity. It is quite possible that the actual link is very indirect. I know lots of academics have been investigating this area and I am always interested in latest findings. Of course that is all covered in a different thread but I am not expecting a return to generally increased thunderstorm activity until around 2016.

Yes, as I looked at NW and Meto forecasts for this week. i couldn't help but wince at forecast maxima of 12 and 13 degrees C. A few years back i recall 10 centigrade at about 7 in the evening at Weymouth quayside and that was New Years Eve! Not the temperatures we have been used to in June but possibly quite normal in a historic. To my ind the link with Solar Cycles does seem to be producing the variation that had been predicted and presumably that too will allow Meteorologists to firm up their understanding of interaction of solar activity with world climate.

Several rumbles of thunder nearby but sun is shining where I am. Breeze has picked up from the South

Moderate showers here from 10.00 this morning but nothing thundery. Interesting that Meto Local Forecast online still shows full sun while they issue a rain warning! Met Office Radar now showing heavy rain in the English Channel Approaches, but will it reach N to Cornwall?

And tastes like roadkill (well that mostly tastes like chicken anyway) LoL

Radar shows some beefy rain pushing up from Normandy into the Channel. Might it reach IOW or will it decay before it reaches UK?

We saw our first (lone!) swallow down in Devon over a month ago but the first real influx came in this weeked, presumably on the warm southerlies. I have still to hear the first chiffchaff however and that is my real indicator that spring is here! Yesterday saw mist coming in off the sea a sure sign of warmer air. Looking at the models it might actually be tome to dust off the Barbie for this weekend - even thinking abpout it lifts the spirits.

one or two very small flakes when more convective bits of cloud pass over and the wind drops back a bit A really lazy wind though, just cannot be bothered to go round you - feeling sorry for those having to work outside today

Thanks John, as ever a very carefully considered and informative post - I really enjoy reading these and feel I learn a bit more each time! What do you feel is (are) the main driver(s) which are triggering the change from what seems to have been a very stubborn (stable) situation ?

Alongside the obvious depth of knowledge and commitment of time to examine global factors, your posts have always held our respect for your evident talent and judgement. Somehow, within a few people such as yourself , the brain manages to integrate data in a way that even the best computer models struggle. That talent is a rare and precious thing. On so many occasions you have challenged the model outputs and later been proven right and (importantly for this forum) you have taken the trouble to explain why. I echo all that others have said and do hope that you may be able to pop back from time to time if not to forecast, then perhaps to comment retrospectively giving pointers on factors that had been given too little consideration. I won't say good luck as I believe your success comes from skill not luck - just hoping that your skill is well understood, applied and rewarded. Have fun, we shall indeed miss you!

Yes, great to see that golden orb, but still best indoors looking out! It seems that we have seen very little of it over the past year. Does anyone have monthly sunlight totals for the sw for the last 12 months and 'normal monthly averages' to compare them with? I am just aware that the output from roof mounted photovoltaic panels over the past two quarters has been very low indeed andhas only started to pick up in the last couple of weeks (and even then only on the odd day)

Apologies but i cannot resist this - that chart for me reads like 'Strong blockings and long stockings' LoL Thanks for your input Ryan - we appreciate your perspective from the other side of the Nordsee! Keep up your your good work.

It those ruddy beavers they have been reintroducing!

Indeed - and pretty high tides I believe this week to make things worse for E facing shores. The only good news is that this low is not tracking in over Scotland from the NW so not a full blown surge? (although it could push up the English Channel and affect low lying South facing beaches)

Interesting differences between Meto and NW forecasts for the coming week. Meto keeps N Dorset down around freezing point (daytime) whereas NW shows temps up top 6 or 8C. The past two days have been remarkable in that the temp has really not varied much (-1 to +1) with the very slightest thaw going on during the day. The old lore would say that the snow is 'waiting for more' and my suspicion is that this is what we shall see, more and deeper cold in the next shot and marginal breakdown in between. Whatever happens for now 2013 will class as a 'better Dorset winter' for me with three good days tobogganing being my measure! These tend to come only once in 5 years. Some of the youngsters are surprised (and amused!) that some of us older folk still like to thunder downhill and that our greater body mass makes for higher speeds when the slopes are smooth and icy!

yes Phil, especially tough on S Devon as yesterdays charts suggested you might be in luck. My son is in Plymouth and for him the only upside for him was that he is recuperating from a leg ligament injury and could not have gone tobogganing anyway. Hopefully better luck for you next week - looks like there are chances yet to come.