egret

What a difference 100 miles makes. Down here in Dorset we had no real snow last winter and are now having one of our better summers - certainly way better than last year. Maybe the temperatures are a tad lower than the raging heat felt in the SE a couple of weeks back but overall it has been very pleasant. If it turned wet and cold from here on we could not really complain. Like others have noted, we have gone a very long time indeed without lightning or thunder.

I agree, I can remember many years (even 'warmer years') when the daffodils have had their heads poking through 2 to 3inches of snow. Indeed I would not be surprised if records show there to have been more years with inch plus lying snow in March than in December. About 6 years ago we had at least two inches of snow in April up on the Dorset Downs. If my recall is right, much of the west country snow has come from lows which have taken a more northern route across the Atlantic with snow swinging down from the NW. Back in the 60's I seem to recall synoptic charts (good before colour telly) heading across from Maine to NIreland and snow cloud swinging down from there. I might be horribly wrong on this point and welcome correction (especially if anyone has synoptics from past years showing where the snow actually came from). Getting back to the outputs however I am struggling to see snow coming out of this cold snap.

Badboy, its a shame if anyone feels reluctant to post because they 'got shot down' and glad you are not 'terminally deterred'! We all hold beliefs based upon our understanding and will adapt those, depending upon information we receive and trust. It is healthy if we are all prepared to accept challenge and to change our viewpoint if good evidence suggests the need. We will all harbour doubts of one sort or another. I too do not feel as knowledgeable as the many experts here, and was prompted to respond to the two recent excellent posts in this thread which appeared well informed and presented a sensibly balanced commentary. Incidentally, I purposely did not name the persons I spoke to in NERC/Southampton Centre of Oceanography because they were personal discussions and off the record. The important thing however is that their evidence appears dramatic. The persons concerned admitted that there were possible serious and rapid consequences. They didn't wish to be alarmist however because the data was at that time a new 'snapshot in time' with no historic data to compare it with directly. I have not heard what changes have occurred in the past 5 years as my work no longer brings me in contact with these scientists. At that time other data was emerging from deep sea floor sediment analysis which indicated very clearly that recent trends are actually very not unprecendeted. This leads me to believe that they are the result of some wholly natural process, which is not materially affected by mankind. It also suggests reasons for fluctuations in fish and sea bird breeding success and migration patterns (which is why I talk to fishermen with interest). As you suggest, there does appear to be some correlation with solar activity. I do not know a lot about Weathe Action and a certain Piers Corbyn, however he uses solar activity as a basis of fore casting and predicted several years ago that last year would herald the first of 10 much colder winters. The graphs evidencing this cyclical activity are very compelling indeed and the long term cycles are consistent into geological timescales. In that regard I find the historic trends more compelling than recent GW forecasts (which are not proving reliable in the short term).

A most interesting thread and one which rings a bell with thoughts I have held since spending some time speaking with scientists from NERC /Centre of Oceanography on this very subject (10 years ago now!) when they were obtaining data on the pattern of slowdown. Since then I have also listened to subjective evidence from local fishermen on the South Coast who have noted changes in fish movements which are consistent with cooling as opposed to warming. Several points: 1. There is evidence that this has happened before in recorded historical and pre historical times, which begs detailed and urgent explanation of the triggers and patterns of occurrence. 2. Data collection has developed at an almost exponential scale over the past century, creating the risk of distortion when making comparisons with historic data. 3. This appears to be one of the more significant short term impacts of global warming 4. IMO the historic evidence of oceanic and climate behaviour is such that man made (AGW) effects are probably trivial by comparison with natural causes 5.Firm evidence is required to determine whether or not previous perturbations of NAD have been caused by random and unrelated events (meteorite impact, volcanic eruptions, related to solar activity, periodic changes in ocean circulation without specific cause - as happens within flow patterns in fluids at any scale) 6. From such evidence explore probabilities as to whether AGW alone is sufficient to trigger such events I personally have seen insufficient evidence to support AGW as being causal. Historic patterns of climate change support explanation of rising temperatures over the past 100 years without AGM and also evidence the risk of very rapid cooling to come as part of some natural(but as yet not fully understood) cycle. The patterns of historic trends are IMO simply too strong and reliable to ignore. Current preoccupation with man's impact upon climate may prove to be little more than a distraction. Research really needs to focus more upon understanding the past and upon planning response to those change events which nature will, unaided, surely deliver. We should reflect that humans have a remarkable capacity to accept risk and ignore history and natural geological and geomorphological processes (hence we still chose to develop and inhabit vulnerable low lying areas including Amsterdam, London and indeed Sri Lanka post tsunami!). In the UK we continue to develop in flood plains and coastal areas and seem to believe we can control nature rather than cope with it. Attempts at control are essentially ephemeral and local in scale. Having said all this is not to dismiss issues relating to the rate at which we currently deplete precious natural resources and pollute the environment on a global scale. Here too we are rather slow to learn from the past and should heed historic aspects of social and economic geography. This post might be regarded as being a bit off thread - but it is intended to highlight the need to interpret slow down of the conveyor against long term historical evidence if we are to properly understand cause and impact. I would welcome links to any research relating to points 4 and 5 above.

Spring tides, yes I believe we are heading for some of the highest tides for several years so combination of low pressure and mabe wind fed surge could pose problems. Fortunately the track of the low is such that it should not create a 'classic surge' of great amplitude.

Radar image now much clearer - looking like light to moderate for Dorset and heavier on the southeastern end of the frontal cloud, tracking towards Hants / Sussex/Kent. This aligns much more closely with the MetO warnings.

STEVE - interesting that you say light rain. Overcast and occasional drizzle here in Poole, but watching the MetO Radar the rain should be with us at about 14:00 to 15:00. Not clear about the actual radar image however - shows a long but narrow strip of whiote just behind the leading edge (torrential?) but no red. I wonder if this is in fact white (no rain!) Metcheck seems to think the rain will be heavy.

Dilemmas - now you mention my favourites. I really love them too and look at them each spring morning when they come into bloom. They seem to flower ever earlier each year, but still give that wonderful feeling of tranquility when they are finally over.

4C and overcast here, v light drzzly shower a short while ago with the odd sleety flake mixed in. Cloud does not look dark enouth to be 'snow cloud' so not getting the slightest bit excited!

Importantly the sea is now approaching its coldest meaning that chances of snow (as opposed to sleet) are improved in the SW should we get air moving in from the Channel. Here on the S Coast we could do with the Atlantic/Channel lows moving just a shade further South than they did in the last cold spell. At present the main action seems to be from N&E, but I would expect this to change if the cold lasts more than a week. Time will tell!

Thanks JETHRO, yes this confirms it was 18/19 Feb '78 that brought heavy snow to sw and 1979 was very cold. Watch the next week with interest -- might it turn out similar?

Does anyone have the records for the late 70s ? I seem to recall severe cold and deep snow in February (perhaps a week or so later than this) We were camping near Reading with thick snow and temperatures so low that we had to warm the gas cylinder in the car to get any gas to come out (that might have been late February in 1977 ) and was it the same time of year in 1978 that there was epic snowfall in SW?

Best to sit down when drinking - avoids the worst of marination and results in less wastage ;-) fingers crossed for next week. Precipitation charts seem to forecast Dorset snowless this time which, on the basis of counterbluff, suggests it could be our turn for some white stuff!!

Now that is two of us - I popped over to the sarnie shop in shirtsleeves and got some comments (!). My answer was that it is summer now. Back at home this evening and I see that perhaps I was wrong - I just cannot believe how quickly and dramatically the charts have changed. That said we should not be surprised, there are still several weeks of potential for snowy weather. Did peeps pick up on the news this morning 'the sun is now waking up, massive solar flares will disrupt the Olympics in 2012' - is this not several years ahead of predictions based on solar cycles?

Yes, that is how I read it also, with the possibility of some excitement on the South Coast around 10th to 12th of Feb. A long way off however so don't hold your breath.

Thought? Well 2nd week in Feb is a long way off but as everone points out this is emerging as more like our winters of old. Contrary to popular legend they were not all continuously cold (only the very rare ones) and SW still missed much of the snow. However, as we are influenced by Sea Temps and as these continue to fall until late Feb, the chance of snow here tends always to be strongest in Feb or even March. I would not like to bet on the second week but would think there are still strong odds for the second or third week in Feb. This is not science or a trend in the charts so far out, merely what we might have seen 20 to 30 years ago. Over the past 20 years in Dorset we have had more settled snow in Feb onwards than before Feb. In one memorable year (forget which one, about 6 years ago) we were swimming in the sea and sunbathing in March and two weeks later having snowball fights!

Prolonged rain in Dorset today, as you might gather that is the nearest to snow we seem to get! Not sure what the quantities have been but water is across the A35 near Poole and it is not very often that this occurs. It is the time of year when prolonged rain can cause real problems in these parts as the chalk aquifers become saturated with springs and streams cropping up where they are not really wanted. (hence the term Winterbourne in many place names) We would be happy with a dry month even if cold, but I cannot see this coming from the charts at present.

Jan of '90 or '91 I think it was. It might not have been a full hurricane but was pretty fierce in Southern England with winds of 105mph! (I think it was somewhere around 25th if I remember correctly) What I cannot recall is whether that was the year we also had a cold snap at the end of December. Has anyone got the records?

Yes indeed and here we are, thanks to Paul Sherman and the 'powers that be'. Excellent. Ground still frozen when I walked the dogs this morning (and puddles of water on what is normally free draining soil), ground much softer this evening and fieldfares looking more cheerful! Must get back to the models now as our local forecast in the news hints strongly at returning cold. Maybe we shall have to wait a few weeks more until a reunion beach BBQ!!!

I'll second that - thanks, still some winter to come, but the friendly banter on here deserves to continue whatever the weather .

Its a shame we are losing this friendly local thread, for the time being. Willing on the next snow event so we can get the thread back! With Friends in Bristol and Exeter, son at Uni in Cardiff and a wife who travels almost daily over the whole of the SW, I particulary appreciate the concentrated local info this thread has provided. Also good to discover the peeps in Dorset - please keep the odd post going in General thread so we can keep in contact!

Time to head off now - got to be up early tomorrow. Nice to meet a few from Darzet, 'nite all

I can say from experience that most of the hills hurt a lot - those sheep tracks on the hillside are a lot rougher when you go over them on the way down - hence I prefer the roads at night!!! Just seen BBC S and they are now saying rain on the coast so I think we shall have to wait a week or two.

but models changing in detail all the time. who knows ....all to play for I suspect hence many keeping their thoughts to themselves at this point.

I'm not banking on snow this time around (had this been Feb with colder sea temps then maybe) but cannot help feeling things will return better still for us in a week or two. Best Dorset snow often in Feb or even March. The best run - road down N face of Bulbarrow at night when the road is iced and not gritted - manic!!! (I'll probably kill myself there eventually) Not tried Hod , isn't it a bit bumpy?