Kentish Kiwi
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Posts posted by Kentish Kiwi
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Temp is 0.2 dewpoint -5.4 humidity increasing 67% pressure 1025.0 .Thats here in sunny (but bloody cold) Brighton
Sunny?! Pitch black here.
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It's such a shame we lack any real instability or moisture today because the flow of the North Sea is absolutely perfect for a serious and prolonged Thames Streamer
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I've been outside for the last couple of hours on the golf course doing the drinks buggy and can confirm its bloody cold with a strengthening icy wind. Some shallow cumulus/stratocumulus moving in from the east - not the type that looks as though it's going to bubble up anytime soon though.
1C here with a windchill well below zero. Sun coming out has brought a bit of a thaw to yesterday's covering.
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I read a couple of days ago that the coldest uppers ever seen in the UK were -17c (from memory so don't hold me to it). If the cold pool had come straight over us we may well have broken this and subsequently had record breaking low ground temp's following.
-17 850's was mentioned by Steve Murr as the lowest ever recorded over the UK but this was corrected to -19, during the historic easterly of 1987. The charts earlier this week were quite incredible showing -17/18 on occassions and frankly were always more than likely to be downgraded by a few degrees.
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Heavy snizzle here and very dark, poor visability. Hasn't stopped once today. Putting greens are completely white with a good covering while it is just beginning to accumulate on the grass/fairways. Concrete surfaces etc completely soaked, going to be quite a hazard if temperatures drop quickly this afternoon/evening and it freezes up...
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Well obviously we cannot see what is going on above the Stratoform layer above but it is hardly Deep Convection needed in these Streamer situations. Yes things are initiating obviously over the Warmer SST's just off the Coast but I would not expect these to go onto produce Heavy Snow further along the line.
Edit: 1215pm Radar confirms this Imho
Yes, I completely agree. The convection is not at all deep or vigorous (although I never claimed it was) and is unlikely to lead to anything noticeable today, but it is convection - just very weak. Certainly not the type of conditions you need for a real streamer to form.
It seems quite clear that the air is just not unstable enough for anything significant to develop... Have to say I'm quite worried we wont see any real heavy, prolonged snow from this easterly spell and we may be left to deal with conditions similar to today for the remainder of the week. I'll be very glad to be proved wrong though.
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It is not even convection - Just areas of sleet mixed in with the stratocumulus. Once I see a Cb or some convection I will alert you all
I think there is a bit of a disparity here of our understanding of convection... My understanding of it was the formation of showers due to rising air away from frontal systems. This certainly seems to be the case with those showers pushing in off the north sea. I'm by no means saying the convection is vigirous but it is at least evident in a very slight way. Am I mistaken with this? I don't see how the precipitation is forming out of thin air if it is not convection.
It's also worth noting that while it may be sleet for you on the coast, I'm fairly confident the precipitation will be of snow this far inland. It has been throughout the day so far, well grauple/snizzle anyway, but not sleet.
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Croydon Council have been informed of convective showers forming and Thames Streamer in progress
Not sure that a Thames streamer is in progress. Certainly convective showers are forming in the north sea and pushing SWwards in the Thames estuary - that's pretty plain to see on any of the precip radars.
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I've had light snow here constantly since 7 this morning, not settling though because of how light is!
Looks like your in the firing line for some of those slightly heavier shower moving in off the north sea Dan. Will be interesting to see if they bring any decent precipitation.
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Yes, I see what you mean.
Waiting to see if they'll intensify a little as they move further into the estuary and hit land...
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Still moderate snizzle/graupel here. I don't believe this was forecast by any model and with the precipitation looking like it's increasing there are certainly straws to clutch in the short term...
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Looks like some decent showers popping up in the Thames on a NE/ENEerly wind flow! Early days but minor streamer territory...
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Persistent moderate graupel shower herer. Some surfaces turning white. Very seasonal and a pleasant surprise
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Is it me or are those showers over Margate etc taking a well quick swing east towards london ?????
Is that a little squall line developing??
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Precip still strengthening, and this is with 850hpa temps arlound -8C. Its very pleasing to see that and the thermal gradient is working its magic already...
From what I've read, the general thoughts are that the wind will dry out significantly by mid-week, even in spite of the increased thermal gradient... I don't fully understand why this is expected, except for it being an intensely cold and dry airmass, presumably differing to the current air we have now which is slightly more... 'moist'. Is this anything to be concerned about in your opinion? Is the air pressure expected to be any higher than it is now by the end of the week?
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My estimates factor in some mesoscale trough development that I feel has never been 100% depicted on even the GFS let alone the less aggressive models, those very same low temps (surface to 850 mbs) out over the 8C waters of the North Sea, can be expected to kink the flow around trough lines oriented NNW-SSE moving southwest, and this will tend to give intervals of more favourable wind as well as setting up convergence and meso-scale bands. Does anyone recall seeing 850s this low in recent outbreaks? I tend to think of -12 C as the thresh-hold for major snow streamer potential and -16 C in UK terms is exceptional, somewhat garden variety in the Great Lakes but then so would be 30 cms in 24 hours off lakes not quite as warm as the North Sea. Anyway, I've been riding this horse for days since the outbreak was first signalled and it all depends on a full shot of unmodified Siberian air coming through, obviously it will bust if the solution is less aggressive, but an upgrade at 48h? That sounds like late Nov 2010.
So your view on things is that the undeniably high pressure will hardly factor into things given the potential lapse rates on offer?
Personally the idea that shower activity will be limited in a general sense but those that break the cap will be quickly develop into intense cells seems a reasonable assumption. It is pretty much unknown territory for the UK though, and will more than likely come down to a now-casting scenario, even more so than usual!
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The 18z is epic but the flow is probably a smidge too northerly for most of this area to get the big snows looking at the 700hpa vectors...I suspect for the main part E.Kent would get the big snows, but there is a window or two for a ENE to occur, on Thursday and again maybe on Saturday.
That was my main concern with the 18z. If the winds turn just a hint too far northerly, East Anglia will eat up all the moisture for my area while Maidstone eastwards gets hammered. It is fair to say an ENEerly is generally a better wind direction for the SE region as a whole, giving a better spread of snowfall, particularly further inland?
P20 from the pub run looks like an amazing evolution in terms of potential countrywide snowfall from an undercutting low, it's a shame no other operational run has hinted at something like that.
Only light and I am half way up the downs looking down on Sevenoaks town - but snow is snow!
Ahh, your height is probably the significant factor there. If you're looking down on Sevenoaks Town you must be well above 200m.
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how reliable is this guy???
high post count and reads well but has he got a decent track record???
Haha, RJS is most certainly a credible forecaster... But I'm inclined to think he's possibly over-ramping things and exaggerating the potential snowfall on offer just a little.
Snowing in Sevenoaks Kent
That's irritating... Bone dry here ten minutes down the road (to the North) from the high street.
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Yeah that was the most amazing thing about that event, the biggest depth recorded was 52cm!!!
:help: :smilz38: In SurreyLittle did we know that just 10 months later in December 2009 and again in December 2010 we would be seeing the Thames Snow Streamer kicking into action, but the thing that i have noticed is they are nearly always different with just 1 smidgeon of a wind vector being a differing direction places can get either clobbered or stay bone dry!
Who would have though the following would occur from 3 Seperate Snow Streamers
1st Feb 2009 : 52cm in Surrey
17th Dec 2009 : 24cm in Kent
02nd Dec 2010 : 37cm here in good old Leigh On Sea (Essex)
We really have been spoiled over the past 3 winters from Thames Streamers
Will we get another on Thursday or Friday ?? Now that is the Million dollar question
I managed >45cm from the November/December 2010 streamer from (if I remember correctly) 70 hours of continuous snowfall, albeit it very light for periods. Noticeably more up at the top of the downs. Also, for me December 2009 was significantly better than February of that year, which, as you mention, illustrates just how subtle changes in the wind direction can have big impacts on the variation in snow depths.
This area is pretty well situated for any Thames streamer as long as the wind is a consistent E/ENE and doesn't veer too far north into more of a NEerly.
I'm not sure if anyone else will get what I'm talking about, but does anyone have an explanation for why, in easterlies, the wind seems to suddenly turn much more northerly in character as it moves in a westerly direction further inland, particularly so as it becomes lighter?
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It looks like the PPN pepping up near the Thames Estuary is taking more of an Easterly component in the radar....
There does indeed seem to be more of an easterly component to things now which is particularly frustrating for me. Type in TN14 and run the raintoday sequence and you'll probably see what I mean...I know I'm not actually missing much but still.
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can someone tell me if im right or not,are those showers crossing london intesifying slightly on raintoday website
Yes they are picking up moisture and a bit of warmth from the Thames and the London UHI which may be providing a bit of uplift...
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Wondering if that precipitation moving SW from East Anglia will make it over the channel and hit north west Kent... Also a chance it could pep up as it passes over the Thames...
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Tiny bit of very light snow here in NW Kent. Have to look really hard to see it though... Quite a surprise given my location.
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" one or two snow showers "
" the odd wintry shower "
" Mainly dry but cold "
Why the hell are these jokers payed out of our tax money?
To be fair, there really isn't THAT much snow on offer for our region from the models. We expect for the convective potential to upgraded nearer the time but the models are hardly showing a snowfest.
It's perfectly plausible that we do just end up with a few snow flurries. Unlikely, but plausible.
:help: :smilz38: In Surrey
London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A question to those in the know... Do extremely low dewpoints have an effect on what the temperature feels like? Obviously high dewpoints & humidity make it feel warmer in the summer but what effect do they have in conditions such as these which we are currently experiencing?