Kentish Kiwi
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Posts posted by Kentish Kiwi
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Interesting question. I think I will advise myself that I don't have to answer it! Mind you, the house does still seem to be smouldering. Last time I try to chargrill, I can tell you.
Have to say this has been a welcome lightener to my mood.
Hopefully we'll see Steve Murr in here later to give us a localised run down on what to expect once the 18z has come through... He did say he would be active on this sub-forum from Sunday night onwards, but maybe the downgrades through today have rather dampened those sentiments!
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Seems like the writings on the wall for this cold spell from +96h onwards. High too far east, no undercut and northern arm of the jet sinks everything and heartbreaking leaves us in south-westerlies. Things could well change overnight but I personally feel I've had enough false hope... It's becoming too tiring and realistically there's only one way things are trending.
If anyone here is reading the model thread and wondering who to put faith in, I'd say Kold Weather is calling things most sensibly and has been for the last few days:
ECM and UKMO have nearly identical heights in the Atlantic with that low. The GFS is weaker but they all agree on the biggest by far and away issue with this whole set-up...and thats the fact that we get NO undercut. I really cannot say it enough, but no undercut means no sustained easterly given the Atlantic.
We must see trough disruption in the Atlantic. If we get that we almost get into a win-win situation. Problem is most models simply have ditched that idea now.
danm, they are sweeping comments but when you have good agreement at 72hrs on the ONE key feature that will make or break this set-up (The angle of the upper low in the Atlantic) then I'd feel more confident on that solution.
It's not quite totally over yet, but as you say its a massive hammerblow.
Still, we get a decent enough ESE/E/ENE flow before everything completely sinks, so there's a possibility we may get some reasonable convective snow showers off the North Sea later in the week. The positive thing is that it any precipitation past Wednesday is unlikely to be marginal, even on the coastline.
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12z's have made me feel a little sick. There was always still a long way to go to get a proper easterly but we may well be looking down the barrel of one of the biggest downgrades in Netweather's history. Need to see a complete U-turn in the trend from the the ECM 12z and GFS 18z to save things in my opinion.
Considering how the winter's been so far, a few cold, dry days just wouldn't cut it for me.
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Apparently, by this time next week no one will be able to leave their houses for fear of freezing instantly in the -17 wind chill
If the ECM was to verify exactly (obviously this is unlikely) then things the cold will be extreme and certainly a major health-risk to the elderly etc. A long way to go till that point though and things aren't even certain past +72h yet.
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Essex weather saying bit of a wobble with something and is now all off? Not looked into it, what's happened?
Not entirely sure what you are asking there... But the cold spell is most definitely still on, a way to go yet but with two of the major models in relative agreement at +120h things are looking about as good as you could hope. The only fly in the ointment is that easterlies from Russian/Scandinavian highs retrogressing westwards are notoriously difficult to model and there are many obstacles that could completely derail the cold on it's journey towards the UK.
Still far from 'in the bag' but certainly a positive outlook at this time.
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New Zealand is more the equivalent in terms of latitude, to Spain and southern France then it is to Britain - so daylight hours are considerably longer in winter then here - which is why it only just averages over 2000 hours - if you put Auckland further south I can assure you it would be much much cloudier not to mention a hell of a lot colder
I think it's quite obvious it would be cooler if it were moved further south in latitude but I'm not sure it would be a 'hell of a lot colder'. The maritime climate limits the potential for extremes in temperatures and as such I don't think Auckland (wedged between a large sea and the largest ocean in the world) would be that cold or that much colder. It would certainly be milder in the winter than the SE of England due to the lack of a relatively nearby continental influence, more comparable to the south-west coast of Ireland and possibly milder still. As TWS explained, the longer sunlight hours in the winter is not a viable explanation for the difference between NZ and the UK.
The relatively high sunshine totals in most of New Zealand, in what is, on the face of it, a similarly mild moist maritime type of climate to Britain's, has always fascinated me. It's not just about the topography- even the very wet western coastal areas of New Zealand tend not to average far short of 2000 hours per year. I guess that the most likely reasons are the relatively high amount of time spent under "clear" anticyclones and bright showery polar maritime airmasses (as the prevailing wind direction is a direct westerly rather than a north-westerly, suggesting rather less tropical maritime air- though I'm told that Tm air can be very warm and sticky in many parts of New Zealand when it does happen).
I'm certainly not an expert on this and I'm just employing my general knowledge of the New Zealand's climate, but I don't think it does spend a relatively high amount of time under polar maritime airmasses. I may be wrong but I would have thought a direct westerly (as you say, the prevailing wind direction) would be far more Tm than Pm, given the latitude, particularly when you move into the top of the North Island. I would also say NWerlies are somewhat more common than SWerlies (particularly in the SI), so possibly WNW is a more apt description of the prevailing wind. Although it's worth noting that the majority of my experiences are from Auckland which has a borderline sub-tropical climate and thus may be rather unrepresentative.
Precipitation in the summer certainly does seem to come from a higher proportion of convective rainfall, over frontal, in comparison to where I live in the SE now, but I'm inclined to think this is a result of warmer sea temperatures and a much more powerful sun, rather than the air-mass being 'bright showery polar maritime', even in the winter. The summers particularly can be very stagnant, humid and sultry, giving rise to convection. It's also worth noting that this convective summer rainfall season lasts significantly longer than it does in the UK, which I would have thought is significant in that convective rainfall = more sunlight hours than frontal rainfall.
The clear high pressures in the summer are possibly a big factor. In Northern New Zealand in the summer you can usually rely on the sun to burn off any residual cloud under high pressures, particularly in the east and inland, and this is noticeable right through to the end of April, which I believe must be a result of the much stronger sun. The 'burning off' of cloud is definitely far less noticeable and reliable in the UK in my experience, although less noticeable in Auckland than many other areas of NZ.
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But the Languedoc area in France has some 2,500 hours of sunshine a year
I'm not really sure how it's particularly relevant to this thread but continuing that theme; Nelson (or Blenheim), at the top of the South Island in New Zealand records similar, often over 2,500 hours a year. Locations along the East Coast of the North Island can also occassionally take the top spot with over 2,500 hours and in 2008 Whakatane recorded a highly contentious 2,700 (although many believe this is due to faulty equipment). Even Auckland averages 2,100 hours a year, which is rather surprising given that the locals regularly complain about how cloudy it is...
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Meanwhile on the 18z,the russian high is reaching out west!
That high looks absolutely massive. I mean it stretches from Scandinavia, down to the Mediterranean and right around through Eurasia to Alaska, although the middle section may only be a surface high with low geopotential heights... Nevertheless, high pressure basically covers the entire Eurasian supercontinent.
Is such a feature common at this time of year? It certainly looks imposing enough to impact on our weather.
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An overview of the SSW events. The latest was 23march 1965.
There was an SSW in February 2010??
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Has this seriously missed me?
Maybe you missed it?
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Well that was certainly something! A proper squall. Very good storm for this area.
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Met Office reporting 102mph gust at Blackford Hill,Edinburgh now http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html
That must have been the gust mentioned on Breakfast. Pretty incredible, I was struggling while walking to work early this morning and gusts would have only been around 45mph!
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Just heard on BBC Breakfast that gusts at Edinburgh Airport have topped 102mph??
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It is interesting, as it was the 10th warmest year globally.
That is quite far down the list of all time highs, and a bit of a surprise, to me.
The effects of a potent, and what I've been lead to believe is a double-wave, La Nina?
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September/October was painful. As Southern England and Wales Enjoyed temperatures into the mid to hight twenties, here in Scotland we had to go through heavy rain, 13c and dull cloud. April was the best we had, the rest was mild, summer was cold. That's not my idea of one of the warmest years on record, especially with the hottest time of the year being cool. Anyway it's winter, other than looking back on the year as a whole, why should be talking about heat? Except one person of course.
I guess you'll probably find it wasn't the second warmest year going by Scottish records, especially given that January and December were notably cooler in Scotland than England, and, as you say, the September/October heat wasn't felt properly that far North.
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Well Gavin, what would you rather have, the 2nd warmest year on record (with a rubbish summer) or a cold and snowy year with the warmest and sunniest summer on record?
2nd Warmest Year on Record? All the other years that I've seen have had warmer temperatures in summer and may. It certainly didn't feel warm except April.
What about late September/October?
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lol some members on TWO think this ecm chart is encouraging for decent cold, nope dont think so at all, loads of warmth being pumped up to our west which would topple over us bringing unseasonably mild conditions like over christmas, the third warmest on record.
If you don't think that chart shows some cold potential and is therefore encouraging for those looking for cold, you are kidding yourself.
Here an attachment of the chart for future reference:
I may be missing something but why does everyone suddenly have the idea that cold will arrive firmly on the 20th January?
I think it's mainly because a few well-respected forecasters (such as GP and Chiono) have been looking at mid-January onwards as a time period for cold to set in for a while now and also possibly because of the time lag effect of the stratosphere, which has shown signs of warming recently...
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3.5C please. Slightly above average first third/half cancelled out by a cold end to the month...
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Meteo, I would have thought that up until a couple of years ago the stats you posted were fairly frequent and common place - I thought that what we call the deep fried sprouts (1988-2008) saw some very dry and warm winters across Iberia ? Although obviously the Autumn just passed has been pretty exceptional.
I'd appreciate it if you stopped saying 'we' call it the deep fried sprouts. I don't. You're really only one of the few that champion it... It's potentially quite misleading. Cheers.
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Thought I may as well add this just as another example (even though it's not going to eventuate).
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What kind of weather patterns can we expect to experience in the UK with height rises over Canada?
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Good to see him back into it... Hopefully he's enjoying it and finding a change in the local climatic peculiarities interesting. I wonder how he's being received by the NZ public?
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I've labeled the chart, surely that ridge is stopping the jet being flat? Which would give height rises to our north/northwest?
I think you're misunderstanding the direction of the flow Robbie?
The Jet wouldn't travel south and then south-west on the western side of the high, it would travel NE and then E across the Atlantic. The Jet at the very bottom of the chart is actually returning on the southern side of the high, traveling back west over the Atlantic... Or have I misunderstood the point of your post...?
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The currently forecasted warming and it`s implications for the PV is well explained there C.
Can there be a local or upwelling warming event where waves inflitrate the lower Stratosphere from the the Trophosphere?
If so, i thought this was the true SSW as the warming can have a fairly quick effect on blocking possibilities ie,days rather than weeks.
But I thought C had said the 2009 warming was a downwelling event? Didn't that SSW impact the troposphere almost immediately?
London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Kentish Kiwi
I've got a pinky looking sky here and frost under cloud but no sign of snow...