[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Driving with the windows down today! Warm!

[Model banter and emotions]

 cheeky_monkey winter is from 22nd December to 20th March though?!

 

mid Jan is still first half of winter

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Which is strange as it’s not windy at LHR at the moment !

Lots of gusts; wind shear very bad 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

12 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Noticeably uptick in gusts in last hour or so, still nothing I would call strong yet bur isha still about 200 miles away?

Amber warning not until 6pm 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

11 minutes ago, snowray said:

Has anyone noticed that the PPN on the radar looks is a lot further north? 

Nope

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS 12z deterministics idea of a Scandi high is a huge outlier amongst the ensembles.. but it’s an interesting one. 

It’d usually be rather easy to ignore given it’s an outlier but what it shows does fit with the background forcing that has been discussed to death in recent weeks. 

MJO progression east > +FT > +MT > Rising AAM tendency with the MJO eventually pushing into the Pacific, tropics & sub tropics then singing together for high latitude blocking. 

I wonder if the GFS Det is picking up on this signal but being too progressive with it? Evidently there’s zero support currently but it’s a very curious one. The next few days could be interesting. 

Trend setter 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

19 minutes ago, throwoff said:

.... does that look waaay further north than it should be to anyone else...

Don’t do it to yourself 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

19 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Earlier on this morning precipitation from that was was over Rochester lol

I not saying it will all drop this way.

I saying some already has.

It was never thought anything would come this far south but it has..

Oh that’s not the same system grazing the coast tonight 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

7 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

It already is...

 

 

Nope

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

27 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

I haven’t been on here for a day, does anyone have a clue about Wednesday, keep hearing different stories, my weather apps are saying snow, then not and then back again

It’s not going to snow on Wednesday in the SE

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Imagine

 

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This might be our only chance this winter...got to squeeze it as long as possible.  Could be a nowcast situation 

Sad innit

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

lol oh you guys

 

bless

 

just give it up

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just reading the totals around Buffalo 

 

30-42 inches ish in many places 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

As a child I rember an 80s cold spell, there was snow on the ground.

Roads had been cleared.

Unforecast snowfall headed up from France and we got stuck in Tesco.

It was either Mr Giles or Mr Fish that got it in the neck from my Dad

It is these sorts of memories that give you hope in this situation.

It was certainly an event that was supposed to have stayed on the other side of the Channel

You would though think that computer forecasts have improved… but the weather will do what it wants…

 

edit… thought I was replying in moans thread! 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

24 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Still 4 degrees here. When's this cold air supposed to arrive?

Yeah 5 degrees here; warmer than during the day most days this last week!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

34 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

And that's the problem we have, southern people thinking we are good for snow. Teesside area is ridiculous. 

Factually, actual facts, will show it’s better up there than down south for snow 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Well put nothing weird about it !

Eh? There has been no mention about rain this week ! If these mild sectors are now popping up then it’s new

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Weirdly the met office going for sleet and rain to lower levels in the north on Tuesday?!

 

3.40 mark on here

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any chance of another 50 miles push North do you think?

I’d say more likely to trend south again 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

2 hours ago, shawty1984 said:

No, what we hate is people thinking we get loads of snow, living in North East England, I hardly ever get snow in Teesside.

But your ‘hardly ever’ to us would be loads! 
 

trust me, snow down south is rare these days 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

2 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

Extremely south-biased in that forum, can't mention anything that happens up north anymore. I've got fed up with it really. 

Oh please…. Jeez

 

northerners hate the south getting even a flurry of snow; which is much less than northern counties get each year 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Is there any chance this system could move north to effect southern England.or  As the dust settled now on this.

Unlikely now 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

The ICON has the low track over France, see the snow accumulation as it moves across:

So near...That is quite a dumping and we are running out of time to correct north as the ICON is now coming into line with other models.

Its so surprising that the Met office were so adamant that this would effect us

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, MJB said:

Frontal snow ..............................yeah

 

If that stalls a bit, might get a covering before it goes wet 

we back to 9/10 days away eh....