[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Northerners are so weird. Any mention at all in the model thread of the south and they are so offended

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

People were comparing this upcoming spell to 2010 or 1963 or something

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, Vortex3929 said:

Meto showing snow symbols now for Monday. That's ruined it

BBC London just showed  temps of 5-8 during the day this week

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

A long long way to go. Been here before and seen it go pear shaped…

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

16 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Which airmass will win out on this one - I  think the warm air from the SW

All I see is a kangaroo

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

GFS moved towards ECM….where’s Kasim?

 

BFTP

Iberia 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Hmmm

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

J Cohen not so positive re SSW in his blog….

 

Both the GFS and ECMWF are moving away from the idea of a PV split with only the Canadian model steadfastly hanging on.  Also it seems to me that the ECMWF and GFS are even moving away from a major warming.  I had a different update planned but given the latest model forecasts, I think that I have done enough damage and will hold off for now.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Can’t believe that the “nailed on” PV split, and the “95%” certainty of yesterday has now changed….

 

actually yes I can… do people never learn?!

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

5 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Could I ask a question? Metcheck Long term forecast shows nearly whole of February as average sub zero. Is this the models we talk about feeding this?? If it was true, would be the greatest month of my life 

Ignore. Metcheck is awful and nobody would have a clue about Feb yet

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's truly a 5050 though I believe we may end up with a halfway house. That is often the case in these scenarios. The GFS12Z is a fair shout at a halfway house imo.

What's also frustraiting is the first northerly attempt 19th-21st is deflected fully East of the UK due to the strength of the Iberian high.

Half hour ago u said 95% the models follow icon, now it’s all 50/50…

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

BITTERLY COLD Xmas 2023

Required in order to keep beer cold outside the back door

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Best chart in years...

1978 coming in mind...

Steady on lol

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think a lot of people need to lower their expectations on what charts are needed for snow.

Who would have thought this chart here would be dropping settling snow down to just 50m in places..

These awesome easterlies/ north easterlies with -15 uppers are as rare as a pork chop in a synagogue, all that is needed this time of year is -5 uppers and an atlantic system attacking with the right trajectory into the cold air! 

 

lol come on man, feel for the rest of us 

Just now, Alexis said:

Really? That's a loaded chart. For starters there's a reason that low to the west has ground to a halt and filled, instead of barrelling over us with a trail of south westerlies in its wake.

It is literally going to barrel through though?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 hours ago, Biggin said:

We had light snow here for a short while and zero rain

He was talking about Sunday 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I have a feeling some big snow events could happen down south into Monday

Yes but where is down south to you?! Earlier south was the midlands

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, Jacob said:

What app is this?

Snow radar 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Just leap frogging over both December & January for a moment, we know the current prognosis re: December. The next MJO wave based on modelling (and the cyclical nature of the MJO) looks to happen through late Jan>early Feb. A much weakened +IOD by then too. Given the context of the stratosphere at the moment & the possibility of an SSW at some point I think it's a fair shout at this stage to suggest February could be a very interesting month.

Long way off naturally but perhaps the first indication of the late-winter cold that is more typical with El Nino winters. 

 

Feb is basically summer

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes GFS keeping the south further south.

Good job keeping the south away from the north 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Down it goes..

lol like a sore thumb 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ground will be frozen solid after the next 10 days Which should help should we get any snow showers pop up

Mmmm Potholes

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking forward to an upgrade from Exeter today.

Certainly would expect more weighting to wintry hazards next week.

Fingers crossed the 12z runs continue the theme.

No chance of that happening today

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Public service announcement- please nobody tell friends or family it may get cold with the potential for snow at some point

 

thank you 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Is it a coincidence that The day after Tomorrow is on channel 4? I think not

[Storm Ciarán]

Just lots of rain here overnight