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steveinsussex

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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 hours ago, E17boy said:

    Could contain: Mobile Phone, Phone, Electronics, Text, Symbol, NumberCould contain: Mobile Phone, Phone, Electronics, Text, Symbol

    I really understand the excitement for the coming weeks and I am trying to convince myself. Is it me looking at this wrong but if our cold was to come in  from the east then I would have surely expected the above temperature for Eastern Europe to be much colder. I don’t know how accurate the above is but Siberia showing balmy 5 deg  for next week Friday. Maybe these will take a dip but it just struck me s bit looking at the above .

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I’m seriously confused why many are taking the models so seriously at this stage; we all know the SSW will not take effect for around two weeks at our shores and there is no possible way the models will have any grasp as to have things will play out with such an event going on yet people are still saying the outlook is poor, dire, winter is over etc etc 

     

    surely, surely…. We need to give it another 7-10 days before the models have any real idea as to what will actually happen in early March?!

    • Like 8
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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Whilst we wait for better charts to turn up in the coming days it’s worth noting that the Met Office continue to state just a small possibility of significantly colder weather occurring into March.

    Maybe the SSW might NOT have the desired effect this time round ?

    Just a possibility perhaps ?

    At this stage of course they will say no more than that. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Wave-2 tries to initially dominate as the Eddy's increase into the Strat but its clear that Wave-1 should be the clear 'winner' and increase pressure on the Eurasian-North American side of the Vortex. The main problem is how long we can keep up the Eddy's from the Trop.

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    There may be a slight downturn in the strength of the upwelling of Eddy's by mid month. We may need to get a SSW by then as the refraction of Strat Wave(s) may be less helpful beyond that. Also the strength of downward reflection of the possibly weaker zonal wind may be less if the downturn in upward wave flux does verify.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    Less upward wave flux activity would mean if a SSW does happen it may not end up being able to properly downwell -VE zonal winds into the Trop. That's something to discuss properly closer to time though as I don't know any numbers to put to it and that of course relies on a SSW happening in the first place.

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    After all there's signs that this still won't be enough to stop a neutral/slightly positive Northern Annular Mode (or the Arctic Oscillation) long-term according to the GFS though the GEOS does support it decreasing nearer the surface/lower to mid Trop and moving up slowly with the increasing upward wave flux activity that may be more realistic than the GFS but that's just some Christmas bits probably.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    Hence why we may be relying on the Strat though because note the development of -VE NAM in the upper Strat at the end of the GFS run, we need at least some downward reflection into the Trop pattern (doesn't necessarily need a SSW) and relying on large upward wave flux activity for that. So we need to keep up a +VE AAM and hence poleward Eddy's or at least get a few rebounds as keeping up a +VE AAM for as long as previous is very unlikely.

    Posts like these should go in more detailed model thread

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Yeh but we can't base every Winter on previous failed events! Each as the scope to be completely different...for instance I've just watched the bbc4 Winter of 63 documentary...and he'll.. I was looking at some of them charts and thinking...we are at times looking pretty similar sypnotically.

    Anyone know if the waters around Hawaii were much warmer than normal this summer? Apparently it was a major signal of what was too come!

    It was a theory 

    • Like 1
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