[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

This happens every time with northerly’s we don’t really get anything snowy down south I’m hoping something from east later this month or early feb.

Wishbone effect, just Scotland and the coasts, always the same...... can never get excited about a northerly

 

Looks increasingly like a chilly few days before warming up, nothing to write home about eh....

[Model discussion highlights]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Its officially Mattwolves day  @AdrianHull the met do indeed signal a milder push by next weekend

But there's scope for significant falls of snow during the run up to it! And as always and like Tams points put there's alot going on and this may only be a minor blip with drivers looking good again later this month.

To sum up I reckon lots of exciting times in the days ahead.

Now let me just buy my informant a beer

The 19th was when we were looking at the low pushing into the south wasnt it? thats next friday, thats "by next weekend".... so would suggest its likely to be rain?

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5007070

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Its officially Mattwolves day  @AdrianHull the met do indeed signal a milder push by next weekend

But there's scope for significant falls of snow during the run up to it! And as always and like Tams points put there's alot going on and this may only be a minor blip with drivers looking good again later this month.

To sum up I reckon lots of exciting times in the days ahead.

Now let me just buy my informant a beer

The 19th was when we were looking at the low pushing into the south wasnt it? thats next friday, thats "by next weekend".... so would suggest its likely to be rain?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

15 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Unsurprisingly the low has now trended to the south of the UK across most modelling. 80% chance now the precipitation doesn’t reach the south coast. 

The benefit of this is much colder air remains in place. 

It will slowly creep back north bit by bit. But prob not by more than 100 miles or so now, as u will know the models often over correct 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

GEFS are a substantial improvement over the 12z with no mild incursion into much of the south and the mean remaining below -5C during the period of interest. Deterministic run is going up.. the mean is dropping deeper into the cold.

And the Westerly influence towards the end of January? 

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Control sends the low south - it’ll be Sunday by the time we really know 

This is what ‘normally’ happens in the summer months

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Bats32 said:

The south will be buried if that comeS off.

Midlands still

 

south of M4 soon turns to rain 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Look at all the ppn coming out of scandy, NE wind and we could be in business?

You might be, not many others though

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

What a run from the GFS, possibly the best we've seen yet this winter. Both OP and control keep the faith. Huge upgrades all round!

Majority of places don't exceed freezing for a whole week, incredible. CET could be near or below 0C if it came off. 

The ENS are not good, its a right outlier 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

29 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Also that artwork is out by about 25 miles

29 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Also that artwork is out by about 25 miles

29 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Also that artwork is out by about 25 miles

29 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Also that artwork is out by about 25 miles

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

15 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Is Chris Fawkes forecasting end of next week already or is this old?!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

F the M4

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

22 minutes ago, danm said:

 

not much of a deep dive after this weekend, not a scooby really

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

gonna start getting icy now

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Had a dusting 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

They didn't say accumulations...... 

exactly. So what’s wrong with it….?

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Met Office need to look out the b loody window! 

flurries, a few showers mainly rain sleet some snow on the hills

Its not that wrong, there are no accumulations

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

6 minutes ago, mjking73 said:

 

See, id still call that light!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Blue sky here now

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Currently underneath the light blues and can confirm light snow still

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, Gonzolio Martinez said:

Typical of how it works for me - always just on the doorstep but doesn't quite make it. Same thing happened with thunderstorms all summer - it feels like the weather is laughing at me and giving me the finger as it floats on by.

Come on now, your area gets lots of streamers off the north see in a northerly while the rest of us wave it by 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Snowing here albeit lightly

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Apparently snowing in Tunbridge wells

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

54 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Nothing here yet. Just hoping I can get out and see my patients safely and get home before it kicks in.

Don’t worry, it’s only a few flurries. Nothing to worry about 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

But where does it sit in the ENS