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staplehurst

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Posts posted by staplehurst

    SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    Just watched BBC weather and she said snow could be further south with snow in southern England turning back to rain later so there's a chance to 

    We're pretty much at the point where TV broadcasts will offer little value in detail now - it's more down to nowcasting, watching the radar and seeing how things evolve. Likewise site-specific forecasts on websites or apps will offer limited usefulness because there is no human input and they will change with each new model run that comes in.

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    SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by staplehurst

    14 minutes ago, Brocken Spectre said:

    BBC guys (ie after the news) are all (most??) Met Office Metrologist that present on TV.....Unlike the ones on local or ITV Meridian

    Yes, most national presenters are trained or qualified meteorologists. The vast majority of regional presenters (in the BBC) come from a more journalistic background, though some have a strong interest in/understanding of the weather. In a situation like this though, I guess the issue with some broadcasts is that the model data used for graphics can be up to 12-15 hours old, with several of the broadcasts pre-recorded earlier too. While this is still very useful for the general public, I suspect for many in here as weather enthusiasts you're probably better following posts in here, looking at the various model output that routinely comes out throughout each day etc as that will give you more up-to-date insight into what might happen for your local area.

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    SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    2 hours ago, slater said:

    Can someone explain why in 12 hrs we were in for the most intense snow storm Thursday night Friday now absolutely nothing, yes I know charts 5/6 days ahead do change dramatically but it was nailed down by the model room at 9pm last night in fact 200 of them were over excited.

    In a basic sense, it's still way too early to take model output that far ahead with more than a pinch of salt, as it will keep changing with each run. The broad theme is there though - much colder air arriving on Thursday behind the cold front, thereafter there could be more organised trough features running south in the flow that models won't be picking up on yet. Incidentally, a lot of global models always struggle with inland penetration of coastal showers. Another thing to keep an eye on is the low that parks itself up over Scandi - depending on its proximity, it might try to push some slightly less-cold air in from the northeast at times.

    2 hours ago, Timbo said:

    I think we are all in for a good chance of snow later this week, , last Thursday we were supposed to be getting sleety showers on the coast here at Lowestoft, By 11am it had been snowing of and on since 5am and a good covering of about 3", although forecasts were still saying sleet. it will be all down to nowcasting and expect a few surprises

    Intrigued to know where you'd heard just sleet showers were forecast for Lowestoft specifically? There was always a good chance places like Lowestoft and Southwold would get a light covering of snow from those showers given the favourable offshore wind direction.

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    Hurricane Irma

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Singularity said:

    Scary. This sort of thing is why I said 'overall' impacts earlier... for every winner there's usually a loser :cray:

    Worth pointing out I guess that the sudden increase in water level is still at or slightly below the normal tide level, but if that rate continues then obviously there will be significant issues, especially once the winds swing round...

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    Hurricane Irma

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Tracks from 4 days ago (6th), where only a small minority of ensemble members had Irma going up the west coast of Florida, or even staying out over the eastern Gulf.

    11L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.efe0c65cc5f7d19490be3bc741943b74.png 11L_geps_latest.thumb.png.7695110d078efd6bc8bd4286760b6697.png 11L_tracks_latest.thumb.png.bd363f6e010ff57d26923bf94d6a080d.png

    There were a couple of runs of the GDPS that had Irma going as far west as New Orleans a few days ago.

    59b4e760d8104_ScreenShot2017-09-05at07_08_20.thumb.png.48770f7fff643953fd900404fdadd9c7.png 59b4e77529624_ScreenShot2017-09-05at07_09_04.thumb.png.0a6f487a7ffd6be6abd52c73cb66d900.png

    and of course just a week ago Irma was forecast to be either a fish storm or make landfall somewhere in North Carolina according to the majority of NWP guidance back then...

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    Hurricane Irma

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted · Edited by staplehurst

    I thought it odd several hours ago that the PM of Antigua and Barbuda seemed so upbeat at how the events had unfolded - thankfully no deaths on Antigua and no major destruction - but it came across as if he thought the storm was perhaps not as strong as they were expecting and he seemed completely unaware of the fact the eye had gone over Barbuda. He did acknowledge the fact that they haven't had any contact from Barbuda since 3am, which was presumably before the eye had even properly passed over the small island?

    Now that he's been to finally visit Barbuda, he has apparently seen '90% of buildings damaged or destroyed'.

     

    https://twitter.com/ldobsonhughes/status/905528629010067456

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

    18z looking interesting, it seems to be edging more towards the West for Tuesday night into early Wednesday, not a lot of Cape though. Whether it's just underplaying it a bit or not

     

    STORM TUESDAY 12.png

    STORM TUESDAY 18.png

    I think those charts are showing surface-based CAPE (SBCAPE), which would be derived from lifting air parcels from the surface and then calculating the resultant CAPE available. The storms on Tuesday night will be elevated above the surface (and hence not necessarily affected by surface parameters), so MLCAPE (mixed or mean layer) will be a more useful guide as to how much CAPE may be available.

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