Jason T
-
Posts
2,357 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Jason T
-
-
Evening folks, will open a new thread shortly
Thats a good sign.
-
I've got a hunch that we will not see any significant/severe cold spell now. Was talking to a friend who works at METO Exeter. They are not expecting any major disruption with this cold spell. One look at the models tonight would seem to back this up. The colder pool of upper air slides into France this weekend - just brushing the far South East corner of England (hence the METO warnings for Kent). Any real significant cold keeps getting put back in the model runs - Time is running out.
Forgive me for saying this,but your comments appear flawed, signficant/severe cold spell now what are they comparing to, Major disruption what are they classing as major. One look at the models,I dont think we can class one look as gospel for the further outcome. I believe JOHN HOLMES posted earlier regarding temps that the Models were not stating true temps which alone i would have thought could make models give distorted outputs at times.As for the METO warnings well they can change within hours.
Kind Regards.
-
Today was quite a suprise for me, I was only expecting a few flurries but it was quite persistant throughout the day
Probably not tonight but I think by tomorrow morning shower activity will pick up again and snow showers should move quite far inland
Its drying up now so I hope and I think that snow from now onwards will settle without hesistation
Agree with that about snowfall today, think it shows hard to gauge from models at times for ppn regarding snow, snowing quite heavy here now probably just a short burst.
-
I was well suprised to see it snowing this morning at around 7.30am, was like this all day with a heavy snow shower midday. if it had snowed like that for the rest of the day we would of had a good covering!!
It stopped snowing here at about 5ish. Very cold here -0.5c but feels much colder
Im debating on buying a sledge, what do you all think, should i go buy one or do you think its tempting fate??
Hi, go buy one i agree with snowman if anything we will get a snowday out of this, think snowman will agree let the cold get established so the fun and games can start, also if all models play ball next week could be the one for lots of snow, just to early to pin it down at the mo.
-
It will be very interesting to see what the models will be like this time next week, I know most really stick to no more than +96h as this is with in comfort zone, but that ecm at+240h on meteociel is a corker. I know thats 10 days away and lots can change in that time frame but will be interesting to see what happens.
-
that was soooooooo funny that accu weather man clip. Someone who is brave enough needs to post that in the models thread, that would cheer em all up.
-
I will be saving this image on my hard drive for a long time. the GEM T+240
I know its in lalal land but for snow and cold lovers its a dream come true. if that came off i would be speechless!!! i will look on this image in the height of summer and remember what a fantastic winter 09/10 was.
When i looked at that, i was just wondering how much all the threads would be gob smacked, it is really something else that would put the biggest smile on cold lovers faces.
But who knows anything is possible.....
-
Well ALL we are not going to bet much better than this, Models all look OUTSTANDING really. Love the country tracks forecast SNOWMAN. Sit down relax, as its SHOWTIME.
-
Sincere apologises for this its the only thread ,i can barely get on. Big problems with internal server i think. Need a nw web guy to look at the problem, as you can get nw main page but getting in to threads big problem.
Help..................
-
Well looks like I'm off to Lourdes tomorrow! those that read an earlier post will know why!
I'm quite surprised by the ECM following the UKMO as I thought the UKMO had been trying to morph into the GFS pub run!Anyway putting that aside it seems that we're having a recurring pattern in that the models prog an easterly this then gets shortened because they are already moving onto retrogression of the high to bring a northerly in, its happened several times already this winter.
So it looks like the models are evolving to a different cold set up,and yet again the easterly is really just a starter!Looking at the ECM it does however look a little too quick to retrogress the pattern, in terms of the GFS 12hrs still a very good run but the ensembles look a bit more messy in terms of that evolution so I think we're going to end up with a blend thats quicker than it but not as progressive as the ECM.
NICK, hope you have a great time at LOURDES
you poor man. ECM following UKMO who would have guessed that. ENJOY. -
I'm really not sure about the UKMO, it looks more like something you'd expect to see from the GFS pub run! It drops the shortwave south developing it at the same time, it could produce quite a bit of snow but it's rare for me to say this but I think its gone AWOL this evening.
If the ECM backs this I'll go to mass at Lourdes tomorrow!
That sort of suggests that I don't think it will!Nick...Well better keep your fingers crossed. I will be crying IF that ecm pulls off.
-
Thanks for the replies everyone!! Fen boy, no, no pub tonight!! heheh Donna, fingers crossed for you guys!! Silver Line, I like your post!!! hehehhe I certainly hope this comes to fruition!!! We missed out on really decent snowfall in December, so Im hoping it doesnt pass us by this time!!! I guess only time will really tell!!
Nite all x
I think it will. MRS16F your gonna get SNOWFALL. Im guessing at thursday eve,NEXT week about 8 cms by friday morning FIRST FALL.
-
Well i think the main thing is that AT LAST we have the east AGAIN However this next HIT has a few tricks with it. I think that temps will be the coldest compared to recent EVENTS also SNOWFALL will be DOUBLE.
This is its last HIT.... This one i think carries the SCORPION tail from the start.
-
Evening all. JOHN HOLMES This for you have been away for a couple of days after reading through NW site Models output,and 3 counties EA discussions, I Noticed your Signature. PLEASE dont consider leaving, I take on the resposability to some posting NOT the correct dialog for the models thread. As i am no where near experianced. Its just been an magical ride over the past 10 days through the models, As the MODELS have created true emotional feeling through ALL posting, As most have said rollercoaster.
My point is that as i am a complete newby i will just monitor and watch on the MODELS thread and i hope others of less XP follow.
Sincerely apologise JH
.SILVERLINE (JT)
-
Its going to be on Tomorrows runs NAIL BITING UP TO 12Z. Everyone pray HARD.
-
Nail bitting stuff now
STILL CANT LOOK LOL....
-
Cant look at 18 run. waiting for the post that states good news.
-
fingers crossed for rest of tonights and tomorrows runs. truly stunning.
-
Well i for once i got something right, I said last night it would change today. WOW but these are awesome runs and agreement. MAJOR.
There maybe trouble ahead.
-
it will all change tommorow.
-
Evening all dont know whats going on with these models. As i say always not that xp on them. However if the beeb and meto are sticking to cold, they must be using human instinct in that the models are incorrect in someway.
I do feel for all of you on here as it is a nightmare.
However i truly feel that this mild spell thats showing on the models all the way through WILL NOT HAPPEN as in lasting something will change by tommorow night thursday morning.
The models will be showing there true colours and in agreement.
..................
-
I do wonder that ROBERT from stoke on trent was on to something when he posted couple of days ago look at the bigger models his post read mark my words big snow event by weekend or just before. I apologise if this is of topic its just wierd.
I think he is right.
-
Well the ECM being consistent with a cold spell building increases the odds significantly for me.
GFS is really having a go, but is still on the super-sized-storm drink.
UKMO is going somwhere more interesting for once.
GEM looks decent at 120 hours and then goes for a cold SE'rly draw as a ridge comes up from the south to further pump up the high.
This is basically that thing where an easterly is hinted at, dropped and then springs up again a bit closer, this time with stronger agreement. Its gone from GFS ramping it to ECM. Will ECM be the winner and get GFS plus UKMO fully behind it for tomorrows +120 charts?
Only time will tell, but it would be wierd to see it dropped again only to spring up at 96 hours so hopefully consistency will be of the order for once
-
HI ALL, just to say what a change guessing tonights and tommorows runs are the ones now.
that was soooooooo funny that accu weather man clip. Someone who is brave enough needs to post that in the models thread, that would cheer em all up. 
you poor man. ECM following UKMO who would have guessed that. 
3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 8
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
ANYHTING is possible.