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Jason T

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    General Model Output Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Evening all, what a change just looked at the 12z as just got in,MY MY well that bit of mild is like a black head between to thumbs nails AWESOME, 18z running cant wait. Would anyone agree that this if happens knocks the last cold spell for 6x6.

    We could see some very cold weather indeed and lots of the white stuff LOTS.

    Models well amazing.yahoo.gifwacko.gifyahoo.gifclap.gif

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well all i can say is that the models are in better formed agreement than they were 3-4 days ago, Although alot can still change.

    I am a complete newby to all this and am far from an expert compared to most on here,But hey we all got to learn somehow. The only thing is now i do not bother with meto - bbc forecasts as here is more reliable (WEATHER pardon the pun) we agree or disagree.

    So thankyou to you all.drinks.gif

    Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yamkin, Models been very impressive and i agree. Cant wait till the next set shortly.drinks.gif

    Just pulled this from sky. HMMMMMMMwhistling.gif

    No Weather Warnings

    26419436-7e02-4c32-9abe-d7278cdccad3.Small.jpg Sarah Pennock January 24, 2010 9:06 AM

    This is the second morning in weeks that I have come into work and read through the data to find there are no weather warnings issued by the Met Office for today and the next four or five days right across the UK.

    Welcome news indeed.

    Infact the weather will remain quiet for central southern Britain for atleast this coming week. That does mean many of us will wake to mist and fog patches, with some spots lingering beyond lunchtime.

    The daytime temperatures will remain around four degrees in northern parts and slightly milder in the south, peaking at seven or eight degrees. The best of any sunshine will be in the west.

    After such a long cold and wintry spell that brought so much disruption to transport, businesses, schools etc this weeks forecast is no doubt received with a sigh of relief. But I have a confession. It makes life a little less interesting or challenging for me when there's not alot happening.

    I shall have to start looking up the sea temperatures, or tell you about the tropical depression plaguing northern Australia, or find a laymans explanation for 'mature' fog.

    Check out your weather online or hit the red button.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the 12z output it`s I am a little suprised that the Met.forecasts don`t mentioned any real cold weather yet.

    Apart from when the Warm sector moves through ahead of the Northerly on Weds.much of the UK is quite cold from tomorrow.

    Up to around T72hrs. usually is far as the TV outlook goes and here on GFS are the expected midday temps.for the next 3days.

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2417.png

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn4817.png

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn7217.png

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn722.png

    The cold air from the Arctic only just touching the far North but the surface remains cold for many.

    Then good model agreement from T96hrs. for the Northerly commencing.

    ECM and UKMO look to show a slightly stronger flow by T144hrs,which appears to be the peak day for widespread cold air across the UK.

    post-2026-12643619295428_thumb.png

    Too far away to be certain of snowfall but it looks a decent Northerly ie,3-4 days,and if the strength of the flow is held then quite a few snow showers are likely in the North and East coastal areas and maybe other areas if troughs form.

    Most would agree that they are playing cards close to there chest now, due to so much media attention. They want to be very sure.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Quite agree John I have been posting this possible outcome for the last several days since the

    GFS first showed the northerly before ditching the ideal one or two runs later.

    Watching the MJO and convection in the pacific plus what was going on in the stratosphere (MMW)

    there was plenty of signals of a change to a much colder pattern.

    I am expecting the models to increase the longevity of this potent northerly with the winds then

    swinging round to a position east of north.

    The met office should worry less about the myth of catastrophic global warming or any global

    warming for that matter and pay more heed to what is going on in the 1 to 5 day range.

    Completely agree. They should pay more attention to what will happen and not what may 10 years time its a very grey area all round. Cant wait for next model update later.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by silver line

    :D

    Silver line, I would like to add the GME 00Z to your collection :D:oops: Can't wait for the GME 12Z :good:

    post-2721-12643403530928_thumb.png

    post-2721-12643403599228_thumb.png

    UK Outlook for Friday 29 Jan 2010 to Sunday 7 Feb 2010:

    On Friday (29th) and Saturday (30th) it is expected to be rather cold and windy with a mixture of sunny or clear spells and wintry showers. The highest risk of significant snow is likely to be across eastern areas. Widespread overnight frosts may be locally severe. From Sunday (31st) and to start the following week the weather is most likely to remain similar with sunny or clear spells and showers, with the highest risk of snow over Scottish mountains. Temperatures are likely to be near normal but it will feel cold in the wind with overnight frosts continuing inland. There is low confidence through the rest of the week and into the weekend (6th/7th) with the strongest trend for a similar pattern of weather to continue.

    Updated: 1135 on Sun 24 Jan 2010

    :D Many thanks yamkin.GME 12Z is going to be the one.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well looking through all the comments this morning, i agree as i stated in this mornings old thread at 6.30 am that were my eyes playing tricks on me or have the models ALL gone through a time warp. Yesterdays sets just did not look of any interest at all, and as most are saying it seems todays models look awesome in comparison to recent displays.

    If i remember yesterday most were saying time to give the models a break for now. Still as they say EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED.

    Correct me if im wrong but these look alot worse than we had on the last cold spell models. Interesting times ahead for this coming week.cold.gif

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry for the off topic post,never used de-icer,just another excuse not to do anything physical like scrape it off.The vast cold pool will visit our shores before long.The models do not toy with things like this without credence.Nice to see them have to deal with something different these days,even if they struggle.One thing is for sure,next year when this occurs the data input from this year will help stop the massive sway in outputs

    point taken. apologies.whistling.gif

    3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 6

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    These interlude times are the most frustrating ever as there is many different opinions at the mo about models which one favours the true outcome, I think most will agree it is either way at the moment, But having said that i still believe we will see another cold spell but more than likely a severe one and i agree with some that it will be prolonged, Snow fall could be more frequent and wide spread.

    rolleyes.gif

    Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by silver line

    I don't really see that Shiver. The METO are looking at an undercutting scenario, so that areas that do see snow will have to see rain first and the front will be weakening anyway. Some snow for the highest ground is possible but I would be surprised if anywhere saw anything like 10cm.

    Anything is possible at the moment, and from looking at the models etc, I am quite confident in that bbc weather presenter who stated 7 days ago that this mild front was never going to take a grip as the cold east was like concrete and would push it out over nw,ireland way then it was to reinstate itself over us for a long period.

    3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 6

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    See my previous post on this page, I think a euro high forming will give us mildish weather for a time but then ridge slightly north

    alowing cold air to pour in, but not till the end of the month, What do the experts think ?pardon.gif

    Well alot are saying hard cold spell coming sooner rather than later, heeps of snow others saying its going to be mild for a little bit then very cold. In the models thread there appears to be a lot of change today to the models than yesterday.

    whistling.gif

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