Stephen_Mcr

People are still falling for the cold carrot dangling in the distance?

Very very unlikely. Currently pelting it down with torrential rain here in South Manchester - it could snow for days and nothing would stick.

Manchester snow shield will deflect anything as it stands i'd imagine. Possible long period of rain and a bit of snow dissolving onto wet ground for 20 minutes, but that's all I can see at the moment.

Vile out there and sums up the winter for here. Surprised we got falling snow earlier, but that soon turned to rain before anything could even treat us temporarily on the already wet ground. Looking at the models, doesn't seem much out there to look forward to the rest of the winter....

Any pics Glossop crew?

As I said yesterday, Manchester looks to have found it’s rain again just as it’s mild enough not to snow...... disgusting weather out there.

Sure enough, now the temps support rain as opposed to snow, back comes the PPN Been a decent cold clear frosty day here up to now.

oh boy, what a disaster

Not sure any northern shift will bring much here regardless. Everything was pointing to snow today and it has been milder than initially forecast (still nippy though) but not enough for snow to settle, and its been sleet/rain at times too. Not expecting much tomorrow, if it hits here then it probably wont settle on the very wet ground anyway.

Frustrating that you would have thought the models that have had this nailed over the North West for probably a week now, would have taken this into consideration in the output.....

The heavy snow here a while back has stopped and started to settle but the showers aren't long and strong enough to build a base and its gradually turning the ground wet before the next one - making it harder for the next shower to make anything white. Hopefully tomorrow is a bit more organised and persistent and we'll see something, but I'm really disappointed in what was showing pretty much constantly for over a week and gradually ebbed away into a cold, overcast and damp day.

Very nice, I'm not greedy, I could settle for enough to just make things nice and white even for a bit!!

Nothing at all here

Few flurries here in South Manchester but nothing but a damp ground. See the Manchester snow shield is in full effect tomorrow.\ (you'll have to zoom to see)....

That purple patch is certainly interesting - hopefully that bottom edge moves a bit further south with regards to being snow purely from a selfish point of view - can still see central Manchester seeing cold rain instead of the white stuff until it happens

18z certainly holding steady for the North West. Manchester is always terrible for snow and has been wavering all week, but looking pretty solid - I use the PPN maps as a guide to the conditions being right for snow rather than location which will still probably change - even then, its normally touch and go Just had a huge crack of thunder in South Manchester too

Getting excited now after that shift northwards on the 18z. Now just to see if it can break through the Manchester snow shield.

Interesting output, curious on the below on Monday Still a bit concerned about this all (snow wise IMBY). We were all set for a pasting this Wednesday IIRC on *that* GFS run, nice amount of back edge snow, this then slipped to the end of the week, then the PPN vanished then the old phrases "get the cold in first" got rolled out - then the tease comes back in with the above on Mon - always just outside the reliable. Looking forward to the cold, but we're probably the wrong side of marginal for snow - things need to be perfect. Comparing 06z to 12z, the events on Sun>Mon seem to have caused the ensembles to diverge quite a bit run to run (I still like the old format)

Standard. Push it back then fizzle it out. Always jam tomorrow.

Blimey, tough to see such a flip in models in just 24 hours. Expected last nights GFS to perhaps be not as intense as it was suggesting, but you expect it to have things roughly in line.

Manchester looked in great shape for some snow and had done for days. Cross model support, everything needed for snow looked good.... from temps and dew points to multiple PPN opportunities. This shown up way in advance, more so than most areas outside the north west, and it didn't slip once, each run for the last 5 days looked pretty good. On the day, cold heavy rain early on when it was too warm and a bit of sleet this afternoon. Now it's probably cold enough, the PPN has vanished, yet the ground too wet to make any Irish Sea streamer give us even a dusting to make things look nice and white. Now it looks like the sign of decent cold next week is slipping away and we'll be back chasing that cold that's always a week away and never materialises.

Hope so, would be remarkable even more so given the NOAA commentary. Expecting it to hold fire for now.

This 'cold snap' feels like it's going to go tits up in less than an hour..

Good signs and although it's not without some support from other models this is from the 'pub run' often dismissed in winter as inaccurate when it doesn't show cold or what people want to see. I'll wait a bit longer to get excited on this one. Saying that, anything from the east is often poor snow wise for this area.

Few frosts and no snow last winter, it can only improve this year!