moffatross
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Posts posted by moffatross
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20 minutes ago, Blitzen said:
Who wants to spend the following days dealing with repairs. Been there, done that and used the t. shirt for mopping up! So, onwards I suppose to the next debacle this (winter?) chooses to throw our way!
I don't get a thrill from high winds and rain either and I've seen more than enough so far this winter to last a few years. If there was such a condition as mass gale/rain fatigue, I reckon we've all got it in Scotland. Thankfully, and fingers crossed etc, but there're strong hints in the GFS ensemble spaghetti of some upcoming relief/respite from it all after one more potential major storm bout next weekend ...
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Meanwhile, we should try thinking outside of our wee Scottish bubble and lend some sympathy for those in the south east of England ...
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GFS take on the probabilities of 110 km/h+ (circa 70 mph) gusts at storm peak tonight ...
But the Western Isles, as ever, were progged to get the absolute strongest winds. This for this evening, for 120 km/h (circa 75 mph) gusts ...
These are the average 10 m ASL peak gusts across the whole GEFS ensemble suite, and obviously local geography, height, and anomalous wind will produce some much higher gusts.
Linky to this excellent recently added data source on meteociel ... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&mode=0&proba=1&carte=0
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22 minutes ago, skifreak said:
Already had 5 vehicle windows blown in at the carpark at Glencoe.
Jeepers, that's mental !
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10 minutes ago, Bullseye said:
In model thread someone was posting images of possible polar low around western Scotland moving SE on Wednesday.
I saw that too, but as I was aware of it, it's barely possible to predict the development of a polar low within a 6 hour time scale, so I have to assume that poster was incorrect in calling a feature modelled at 3-4 days off, a 'polar low'.
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4 hours ago, skifreak said:
Latest Met Office update indicates 26 hours of sustained hurricane force winds for the summit of CairnGorm, still looks promising for a big base building storm tonight into the morning with the FL only briefly getting just above the summits according to the MO. However GFS looks like another horrific 12hour+ disastrous thaw as a much wider mild sector comes through lifting the FL way about the summits, MO also looks much worse in that regard for the Western snowsports areas.
Yep, those winds will be testing the infrastructure again and they're modelled much stronger over the East Highlands than the West Highlands. Looking forward (not) to the glib comments from Cairngorm Mountain/Natural Retreats about how they've got so much snow that they need to dig out the railway, yada, yada, yada ...
P.S. Our webcam kicked into life yesterday for a few hours, and did again this morning. Perhaps a bit of extra insolation as we approach February ? Not much to see, but at least we know the engine shed is still there
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22 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:
The 60 hr fax looks even more nuts - although doesn't have quite the same weather associated
The updated 60 hour is in the thick of 'Storm Henry', and seems the Met Office are expecting the worst of it to hit the Western Isles as usual, but I see a wee kink in the isobars that suggests it might get extra lively through Edinburgh and Fife for a while.
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Just looking at the satellite imagery and radar returns and spotted a very cool looking polar low spawn off the coast between Shetland and Doricland, which is now trundling off towards Southern Norway.
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7 hours ago, moffatross said:
The latest automated from the Met Office has 9 hours of heavy snow between 6 am and 2 pm so hope the dusting is a few inchings by the time I open the wallpaper paste pot again.
Still barely a dusting on the ground from occasional lightish snow showers brought in on the biting wind. It seems that 'Master Blizzard' and 'Miss Amber Weather-Warning' eloped away from Moffat sometime during the night
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23 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:
Heavy snow just now. Large flakes and a gusty wind. 1.3c/0.1c.
Good stuff. The radar view of the Campsies suggests they're being hammered with snow showers at 5cm per hour intensity, whereas we've had just light snow on and off here and only a wee dusting. I've been wallpapering the last 4-5 hours with beer, Flaming Lips, Nirvana, Nick Cave, Jarvis Cocker and Johnny Cash for company but I've had enough now. The latest automated from the Met Office has 9 hours of heavy snow between 6 am and 2 pm so hope the dusting is a few inchings by the time I open the wallpaper paste pot again.
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That's the snow on in Moffat now and it's blowing a hoolie with it !
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18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Surprised not to see reports of snow down to low levels yet given the forecast. Indeed nothing at Mar Lodge even which I assume is around 400 metres.
I'd be surprised to be seeing reports of snow to low levels given that it's just gone nine pm, and the models didn't forecast that until gone midnight. Three hours in this current set-up moves a lot of air, and chases away the warmer uppers and the moisture to be replaced with cold uppers and low DP's at the surface too.
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19 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:
Could some please explain the fax chart?
Incredibly tight temperature gradient (look at the thicknesses between Iceland and our land) to throw shed loads of energy into the storm, an unnatural number of fronts, warm ones, cold ones, occlusions to pep up the fun (squall lines and torrential rain at times), a pressure gradient to match today's storm and by the looks of things to the top left, a reload of the cold we're about to get tonight and tomorrow.
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4 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:
The 60 hr fax looks even more nuts - although doesn't have quite the same weather associated
Aye, that looks like proper grimola
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Good spot, SS ! Must have been fun for someone in the Met Office drawing all those on the chart
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Loving the Euro4's accumulated ppn between 03:00 Saturday and 03:00 Sunday.
Something for nearly everyone there
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13 minutes ago, scottish skier said:
Still hanging here at 5 C in the SE.
Colder air does seem to be moving in quicker than expected. I note the MetO have moved my rain to snaw transition to an hour earlier. Maybe will see this shift again.
The NAE suggests there should be -4 uppers widely by mid-afternoon which will be a good start for hill snow
a brief warm-up late evening
before the proper cold air digs in for 24 hours
though uppers are not as low as GFS and Euro4 modelled (-8 to -10C), DP's are good from midnight for 24 hours which is well reflected in the Met Office forecast which projects snow (not sleet) in temps that occasionally creep up to 2 degrees tomorrow ... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcvdc9ryg#?fcTime=1454112000
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Moffat is not far off the middle of the warning area and with DP's projected -3 to -4. if the ppn gets through, it could be one to remember
"A band of rain will move in from the northwest on Friday evening and quickly turn to snow before it clears. Frequent snow showers are then expected overnight and well into Saturday, heavy at times, with some more prolonged spells of snow likely. 5 to 10 cm snowfall is likely to accumulate quite widely, with over 15 cm in places above 300 metres. Ice is also likely to form on untreated surfaces. In addition, gusts of 50-60 mph are likely at times, occasionally 70 mph across the far north and west of the amber area and over mountains. This will lead to blizzard conditions at times and drifting of snow. Power supplies may be disrupted by ice accretion and also by lightning strikes, with hail also likely. Be prepared for transport disruption, difficult driving conditions and disruption to power supplies."
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Hate to say it, but this extremo wet weather has become pretty much standard fayre. Yesterday, the uppper Annan at Moffat was running at 99.7 % of its all time SEPA recorded high, and that itself would have been a record high level up until 3 weeks ago. I think the media are getting flood reporting fatigue.
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1 hour ago, mistyqueen said:
Horizontal rain this morning and we had to make a trip into Portree. We had a loch in place of a front garden which has now thankfully disappeared. Rather breezy, but rain calming down. Builder still on roof hammering away for all he's worth. Discovered some new drips this morning, rain just sheeting in and I'm fast running out of pots and pans and dry towels! Is Friday going to be as bad as some forecasts are saying? Met Office only has a rain warning out but according to one forecast we could hit 82mph early Friday morning. That's well dodgy and off course I'm rather concerned that the roof may not bold up to a battering like that!
Had various impromptu burns running off the field and farmyard through our garden today but just left with the usual standing water. I've spent 100's of hours on the windows and woodwork to prevent hosed rain ingress and we're mostly water free in the house today.
Re. Friday, both the ECM (look up your location on yr.no) and the Met Office are pretty relaxed about the wind potential. Never say never, but the GFS does tend to over blow the max wind speeds.
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1 hour ago, scottish skier said:
Never a good sign when you can't see Scotland on the radar. Or Ireland for that matter.
It's proper p1sh in Moffat this morning. Like there's a thousand firemen outside the hoose aiming their hoses at the walls and windows.
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12 minutes ago, spindrift1980 said:
This post from the model thread suggests GFS are currently suggesting a cold theme at the end of the week - whether the idea gets dropped or not in subsequent runs, who knows.
The GFS, ECM & Met Office models have all suggested a transient cooling. Sleet & snow Friday into Saturday, rising temperatures & rain on Sunday, rinse and repeat. The best we can hope for out of the current phase is a transition to cool zonality as the jet stream creeps further south. As for the GFS, at the turn of its higher to lower res modelling (192+ hours), there's a broad high pressure straddling the Azores, Europe and reaching into Eurasia, and it looks kinda stuck from there into FI-land.
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The wind is up and we've the occasional peppering of rain against the south facing windows this morning, a prelude to at least 5 days of very mobile weather. The weather station (pressure gradient change) alarm has already sounded twice today, and I have the feeling I might end up wanting to silence it by midweek
Edit ... beep, beep, beep, beep ..... again. Argghh !!
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Looking pretty wild as the week goes on. Hopefully this prognosis for Glasgow is GFS overdoing the bombing development of an innocuous looking wee low that spawns mid-Atlantic on Thursday/Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Met Office issuing a separate general warning for wind before today is over.
Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...
in Regional
Posted
Same here. It feels like I haven't seen the blue through the cloud for weeks down here in Moffat
Just wind, rain, sleet, snow, and interminable grey skies 