moffatross
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Posts posted by moffatross
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2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:
That's moonlit??
Stunning !! How the heck to you get images like that?
Thanks
Tripod, timer and long exposure over 5 to 10 seconds with manual focus (I use 30-50 year old film SLR lenses that don't have autofocus but are a skoosh to focus manually). Oh, and a lot of trial and error too -
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It was a beautiful day in Moffat today, the cloud came on for a bit and delivered some very light, but dry and fluffy snow, but it's ended clear and starlit, and not a breath of a breeze.
Took a stroll up onto Tinto hill from Wiston Lodge late last night and got a wonderful view of Glasgow and the Central Belt to the north, and the motorway and railway winding their way through the Southern Uplands to the south. But it was f... b.. brrrrrr.... cold up there at 11 pm
From Tinto summit, moonlight illuminates the south of Scotland. Below is the village of Wiston, the west coast mainline railway, Abington services and the M74, and the lights on the Lowther Hills radio installations.
Looking north to the Glasgow 'burbs with my pal illuminating Tinto's summit OS trig point.
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1 hour ago, Blitzen said:
If we do manage to stay within the -6c for a week (if) then it looks as if it is going to be dry
Looking on the bright side, most of us would take cold and dry over wet and windy
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6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:
Good news this morning as the missing couple have been found alive on the Ben.
But to be clear, it's not the couple that have been missing since last weekend. This was a pair of male climbers that failed to return as expected yesterday.
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Amazingly sharp NW/SE boundary line of between mild and cold air. Not a snow flake in sight here, just dreich and still, but a pal in Wanlockhead reports 10 cm of fresh up there.
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47 minutes ago, Cheggers said:
Pishing it doon!!!
Aye, 'normal service' is restored. Cold, heavy rain, lashing horizontally at Moffat too.
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Haven't even looked in the model thread here (or at TWO), but a quick glance at the 12Z GFS and the ECM just rolling out suggests there'll be some maudlin misgogs this evening, and that the word 'euroslug' will be used in one or two posts. I've really enjoyed this relative calm/dry spell and managed quite a lot of outdoors work on the house. Shame the most unreliable scaffolder/roofer in Dumfries & Galloway (possibly in all of Scotland) didn't just tell me on day one that he was going to jerk me about, instead of spinning his "I'll be there tomorrow" story out for the last week and a half. Looks like I'll be completing the rendering in the wind and rain.
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Nevis range (Back Corries) yesterday, shamelessly robbed from Facebook ...
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Last day of dreich in Moffat, and very much looking forward to the next 4-5 days.
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3 minutes ago, Blitzen said:
Cold uppers maintained on the 06z so will be chilly. However, precipitation appears to now favour the southern areas, with east coast showers for up here I think?
I'd be biting the weather model's arm off for even a short, calm, dry period
Almost Spring-like here now today, bird song, nae wind, and the sun looks like it might be threatening to peep through a bit later. Honestly, it'd be uplifting to have a few day without windows rattling and rain spattering.
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30 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
today we can say that unbelievably FI starts before T72hrs which is about as rare as snow for the UK.
The ECM ensemble spreads at T72hrs clearly show the issue:
Its very unusual to see that level of spread at only T72hrs.
Not meaning to be too parochial, but I'm sure when you said UK, you maybe meant the south of the UK ? I'm in the South of Scotland, and only at 150m ASL, but even I've already seen a few snow falls that have settled and stayed around for a few days so far this winter.
Anyway, it seems to me on this rare almost wind-free day, that the increased uncertainty is a function of the slack synoptics that follow a trough digging further south than we have become accustomed to. I know there're primary and predictable interactions aloft further afield but away from the main action, the consequences are secondary. A bit like the eddies that slowly swirl in the northern slack side of a pool on the bend of a river, they're unpredictable, while the raging currents on the gravel bank on the southern side of the bend follow a much more predictable route.
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51 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:
Interestinger and interestinger:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=51&mode=1&map=5
Edit: there was no reason to link to that particular time frame, it was more for a link to the model itself.
But for the next 24 hours it'll be mostly 'mingtesting'.
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1 hour ago, skifreak said:
NMM goes a bit bonkers for the West Highland mountains tomorrow, particularly around the Glencoe area. Could have snow coming down at 3-4 inches per hour somewhere in Southern Lochaber late morning into Sunday afternoon if it verifies!
The Torridon Hills, then Creag Meagaidh, then the Torridons again look to cop even more ?
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The afternoon of wind and heavy rain appears to have run itself out of steam now but it ended pure torrential and I left me with 15 minutes of mopping up the run-off water that made its way onto the kitchen floor. Some mastic, sand & cement required when it's next dry to fill a crack at the base of an east facing wall. Ho-hum ...
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Aye, coming ESE, and not just the wind, but the rain is splattering horizontally onto the east facing windows too. Pretty typical of this perpetual wild autumn really, to be getting pish from the east, pish from the south, pish from the west, and pish from the north too
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Currently gusting up towards a window rattler, and despite the transient mild uppers, it's cold outside in the wind. Nearer to hand model wise, this Monday night into Tuesday also has potential.
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Strangely parochial news item from the BBC about a February snowfall 20 years ago, conflating a snowfall in Dumfries with all of D&G, I have seen snowfalls in Moffat deeper than those pix more than once in the last 10 years. Wanlockhead gets heavier snowfalls several times most winters. The item also noted that the 50 cm that fell at Eskdalemuir was small-fry compared to snowfalls elsewhere
All very weird, a bit like saying that Argyll rarely gets heavy snowfalls because it doesn't snow much in Oban. Nice pix though http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-35461633
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2 hours ago, Northern Strath said:
If we were to start giving up on our cold&snow chances on Feb 2nd then we'd need to bring everything else forward so Happy Easter Kilties! The use of words like 'potential' and 'the weather may' in the Met Office outlook for the month demonstrates how they can't be sure of much long term, plenty reasons to be positive, still a few nice surprises in store in the coming weeks I'm sure
Wee covering on the car from an overnight shower or two and 0.2C when I left
At our latitude, winter proper continues until late March and we can still get heavy snowfalls into April so to condemn winter at the start of February is pure bonkers.
As you said, some nice surprises may be in store for us. The GFS has just rolled out a run that (even in the absence of deep cold) suggests they may not be that far away either. This is for Moffat from the GFS 06Z ...
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29 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:
This morning's runs aren't frigid winter, but they're not hairdryer SWlies either. A bit of an inbetweeny mishmash messy effort, with some decent shouts for snow at times.
Yep, both the 10 day ECM and 16 day GFS ops are looking distinctly more settled for us with the jet a lot more sedated, and a few hundred miles further south. Ironic that we can only see the Met Office model output to 6 days as their longer term text update appears to have dropped just what the ECM and GFS are showing this morning.
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Nice captures, CMD. The cloud has arrived in Moffat now but with a bit of rare sunshine, and some snow in the garden I went after the snowdrops this morning too
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10 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:
However a look at any of the models says make the most of today as there seems to be a limpet low stuck out to the NW for the next few days to keep a generally mild and damp and at times windy flow heading this way. Possibilities of something cooler - but not proper cold - sometime next week as the low finally dissipates eastwards, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it.
Mild and windy, yep, but thankfully, the probability of being the bullseye for a weekend storm seems somewhat reduced today ...
And locally, wet obviously too. Notably, the only remaining Met Office warning is centred on Moffat
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25 minutes ago, Ravelin said:
Ski resorts struggling too, so not even got that as consolation.
I think the heavy snow showers that got driven in on high wind Monday and yesterday were about ideal for the West. They'd have been the first proper gully filling snowfalls of the season and might set up the front of Glencoe, and the back corries at Nevis with a base that'll last a good while. The SAIS blogs may make interesting reading later ... http://www.sais.gov.uk/
Just a dusting of snow in Moffat this morning, or to be fair, more like an accretion of frozen slush. The hills are white though.
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
"Early rain warning for Friday ... particularly over the high ground of Dumfries and Galloway. ... Given recent significant rainfall events, the area is more sensitive"
Sensitive ? I've spent days digging new culverts and ditches in the adjacent field and in the neighbour's garden to channel fresh rainfalls away from our hoose. So not 'sensitive', more like absolutely sick of it
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28 minutes ago, Blitzen said:
Jeez......look at those uppers over the USA next week!
Brrr ... it'd be "colder than a well digger's ass".
http://dreamsteep.com/writing/humor/237-the-well-diggers-ass.html
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Stunning 
!! How the heck to you get images like that?
Tripod, timer and long exposure over 5 to 10 seconds with manual focus (I use 30-50 year old film SLR lenses that don't have autofocus but are a skoosh to focus manually). Oh, and a lot of trial and error too 
All very weird, a bit like saying that Argyll rarely gets heavy snowfalls because it doesn't snow much in Oban. Nice pix though 
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes, sensationalist poop, but the really sinful act in that item is the inference that the UK Met Office have been quoted as saying a 'White Easter' is on the way. And of course it has provoked all the usual comments and criticisms of the Met Office too.