[North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->]

GFS looks like it is moving towards the ECM in the medium range

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

It looks like some western areas will get a snow, rain and then back to snow event.

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

Anyone got a link to the ECM ensembles. I need to see them because the comments on here are not consistent. Some saying its an outlier and others saying it has plenty of support.

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

CMA T120

I'll be very interested to see the verification stats for this model after next week has passed. It seems to me that it has been rock solid over the past week, would you agree?

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

Well, I'm surprised by the ECM this morning. I reckon this run will sit on the milder side of the ensembles again. I think its wrong...

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

No Undercut on the ECM @ T120

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

Anyone know of a site that shows the ECM progression in smaller time periods. I can't see what happens to the 850s between T48 and T72. Time gap is to big.

[North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->]

Could Macclesfield see any of this Snow Sun into Monday?

we dont seem to do bad here for the white stuff.

With out doubt. You guys are further east and higher up. I might end up driving there if I don't get any.

[North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->]

Morning

nice upgrades from the UKMO and GFS we all join the fun now that warm sector has gone as far as our region

is concerned

game well and truely on for everyone for sun night/monday

C.S

The GFS still shows a warm sector for our region. The UKMO model is not bad though. The forecast on the met office web site shows rain for my area (Northwich) on Monday which goes against their model. So it would seem they are backing the GFS. Worth mentioning that the NAE is showing snow. This has been wrong in the past though.

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

Nice upgrades for the length of time the cold stays with us this morning. The UKMO, GFS and GEM all look excellent for cold. From an IMBY perspective, it doesn't look like snow will fall in the NW (Cheshire) area on Monday. Met show rain. So it would seem they are leaning towards the GFS model since the UKMO looks more like snow in that area, where as GFS shows rain. The models will change detail so fingers crossed that warm sector gets wiped out in future runs.

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

GFS 06z not even close to its previous output. None of the models have a clue past day 4...

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

Snow event Monday night into Tuesday for many on the 06Z GFS. Cold air stays a bit further west.

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

We have an undercut at T144 however we need unother one to prevent a link up with the high to the south I think. Could go wrong at T168. I know I know, I shouldn't be worrying about T168.

Still lots of changes to come I feel.

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

ECM t96 in yesterday's 00z run

Today's run

Huge change

Big improvment. Looking good for an eastly at T144. Come on!

[Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards]

looks to me like a similar evolution to the GEM long term on the UKMO

I'm not so sure. If you look at T144 on wetter it looks like a shortwave is going to cut off the high to the south to allow an Eastly flow to develop. Would like to get SM thoughts on this.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

UKMO T96 chart out on wetter and it looks more like the GFS.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>]

CMA120

How long has this model been running, any stats for it yet?

T144 looks amazing!

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

Upper air temperatures slightly colder out to T60 on the UKMO this morning

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

Between 4.00 to 4.30am it starts to roll out http://www.meteociel...deles/ukmo2.php

Is it late? T96 chart out on wetter http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html. Looks good...

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

Yeah, seems like another slight improvement short term around Greenland, but that SW just wont budge.. UKMO better not go the same way!

What time is the UKMO out?

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

ECM shows a snowy eastly at T144

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12]

The GFS excites me from an IMBY POV. Not often the west sees potential like this...

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12]

It suprises me that nobody has mentioned the JMA at T192.

Anyone got a link to the 12z ECM ensembles. Where did the op sit in relation to other runs?

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12]

I have a feeling that this GFS run is going to be cold in FI. Heights look better around Greenland and that trough is moving further east than the previous run.

[Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 12th Dec]

Im surprised nobody has commented on what happens around +120 on the 06Z.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1321.png

Not far off what I was suggesting last night on some of the GEFS ensembles.

Does seem to be a trend to back that LP further W. However for the block to come into play we need energy going SE. This is very much an outsider but I wouldn't totally dismiss an E,ly developing out of nowhere at +144 over the next few days.

Im surprised nobody has commented on what happens around +120 on the 06Z.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1321.png

Not far off what I was suggesting last night on some of the GEFS ensembles.

Does seem to be a trend to back that LP further W. However for the block to come into play we need energy going SE. This is very much an outsider but I wouldn't totally dismiss an E,ly developing out of nowhere at +144 over the next few days.

I've just been looking at the same thing. It wouldn't take much of a change to get an Eastley from T120 on the GFS. ECM looks similar although not as good.