ICETAB
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Posts posted by ICETAB
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This chart looks rather interesting to me.
I'm expecting the ECM to start throwing up a scandi high in the coming days.
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I would be happy with the ECM if it was mid November. I can see that high pressure retrogressing to the NE further down the line.
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Forget the ECM, JMA anyone? I can't post T192. Win 8 doesn't work with this for some reason
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I think this chart shows promise for a colder solution. From memory the Chinese model performed well during the recent cold spell.
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This aint over yet people. That band will pull north in the next couple of hours. It might not be heavy but it will snow for many
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Snowed lightly for the last 10 mins. Just stopped. My guess is that band has started to move west away from our region...
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Here's the final NAE chart - looks good.
Does it?
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I'm flying to Paris on Sunday from Mancheter. I'm there for a week so will miss any snow that falls after Fri/Sat What do you think the chances are of the flight being cancelled. It's work so really don't want to go. I'm a little concerned about leaving the wife and kids on there own as well...
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Any idea on the warm sector guys?
To me it looks like the UKMO model is the one that doesn't really have a warm sector, certainly an upgrade from the 0z. MO still predicting rain for the west though!
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I think the ECM T144 chart will be good. I think that low will slide under the block and the high will spin to make an eastly
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With a breeze from the Irish sea -5 uppers are not cold enough unless you have elevation.
Well thats a bit crap then... Still think there's a chance as the front clears. Looks like there will be some showers afterwards to me.
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Light snow here.
Just got a little bit excited after viewing the UKMO 12z. It shows colder air during the main front tomorrow and makes snow very likley if it came off. -5 uppers at miday tomorrow. Upgrade from this mornings run. The GFS model doesn't agree but chances of snow tomorrow have improved in my eyes.
Edit: -5 uppers showing at more like 15:30 tomorrow, with heavy precip.
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Currently -1.1 with a dew point of -1.3. Looking good for some light snow later. Fingers crossed...
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could we all be surprised and get a real dumping like we did in december 10
Very unlikley in the western parts of the region!
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Tonight and tomorrow is looking good for snow, a few miles from the coast
to get you in the mood
I wish I shared your enthusiasm. There is a clear mild sector showing on the models. It will defo turn to rain even a few miles away from the coast. The UKMO model mixes out the mild quicker than the rest so I'm hoping it's got a better handle on things. I suspect alot of western areas will see some light snow overnight, followed by heavy rain through tomorrow, after that there is a chance we might get more snow overnight into Tuesday morning.
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Big downgrade for snow for western areas this morning. We will be lucky to get anything off that first front as well, precip looks light and fragmented
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-5 850hpa temps have been pushed further southeast again. Even more marginal now.
However it is now showing more snow for you Tuesday morning..
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It is possible that all of the precipitation will fall as snow. If you get settling snow from the first band then the chances of the next front staying as snow increases. The ECM and UKMO models deal with the warm sector quicker. It looks like the warm air mixes out in the right time periods.
Some people might get a nice supprise me thinks
Fingers crossed!
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Upper air temp look much better during the precip period on UKMO. Am I reading it correctly?
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Downgrades to come tonight and Sunday.
Turning into a non event
It will turn to rain in my area as well however I don't know how anyone can call it a none event. Lots of places will get heavy snow and then cold for the foreseeable... Please post IMBY posts in the regional threads
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Next NAE run/modifications due around 1515hrs. Should be fascinating if last run was anything to go by!
Do you have a link?
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The ECM shows the Atlantic returning in the Medium-ish range! So the GFS is moving over to nothing.. that said, the GFS and UKMO now side, and ECM is on its own. I'd say the UKMO has been fairly constant.
I can see snow occurring here, but it wil turn to rain.
I am baffled by the GFS willingness to put extremely low temperatures in places where snow does not lie.
I was referring to the link up between the Scandinavian and azores high pressure cells. That was showing on the 06z GFS when I posted. This did not occur on the earlier GFS run however it is the way ECM modelled things. ECM went on to sink the high pressure because of the energy flowing over the top. As it transpires, the GFS takes more energy underneath later on during the 06z run and we maintain the cold weather.
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It's the gfs is looking more like the gfs! Do not understand what you mean!
That was obviously a typo. I meant GFS trending towards ECM!
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Huh?
Thought I was in the model thread when I posted! Came over here to see what was being discussed re western limit for snow. I'm in Northwich so I expect to see something Sunday into Monday, turning to rain Mon afternoon and then poss back to snow as the front clears. There also now looks like another front may affect western areas on Tuesday.
Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Anyone know where the ECM op sat within the ensembles?