ICETAB
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Posts posted by ICETAB
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This mornings GEM is worse than GFS in downgrading cold. I think this model has been performing well so one to watch over the next couple of days.
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The upper air temp around russia is not as cold on this 0z ECM runs so not expecting FI to be as cold as last nights run but looking very good...
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Question, would the ECM bring snow in the form of convective showers only or would there be fronts embedded in the flow? It is clear that the east is going to do well but what about the rest of the country? I know it's too early to know exactly where snow will fall; the question is based on tonight’s 12z
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Anyone got a link to the long range ECM ensembles? I'm guessing they're not as good as yesterdays 12z because no comments...
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Just want to echo what I said this morning.
Do not look for a Greenland HP because that isn't going to happen. The core of the HP has always been most likely around the Iceland/SE Greenland area as the ECM suggests. What we are looking for after is the LP pushing SE, linkl up between this HP over Iceland and the one over Siberia resulting in an E,ly.
From an IMBY point of view I hope that is not the outcome, or at least not to start with. The NW is much more likely to get snow from a greenland high.
I like the look of the wind direction on the GFS. Perfect for showers flowing through the cheshire gap
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Nearly a week has passed since my last post and we are in a very different place to how I anticipated things to turn out. I really thought we would be in a well-established easterly right now. It just shows how model development can change very suddenly when they pick up changes in vortex energy distribution.
It looks like all models are seeing a ridge developing in to Greenland at around T192. I like the GEM solution. Greenland high merges with scandi heights and it looks like a north easterly wind would develop over the UK further down the line. Early days but there is potential for something very cold to develop if the models continue with the recent trend, if you can call it that yet.
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GFS 06Z should normally be discounted but has been known to be useful for charts past T240
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Hmm, T300 on the GFS 18z looks like the start of hight rises towards greenland again...
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From what I can gather from the 850s, then Gibby will be right enough: all coastal and most low-lying areas will most likely have to make-do with rain and sleet...for most of the time.
I don't agree unless you talking about recent GFS runs. Snow will fall to low levels even on the coast after the 30th if your looking at the ECM & UKMO models.
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No, I think we are in for a significant cold spell but not to that degree. In the November / December 2010 cold spell the Azores high didn't so much ridge up to Greenland but re-locate there!! It was quite extrordinary. What we do have here though is the potential for a longer cold spell. Teleconnections / stratospheric signals etc would seem to indicate that ay mild between next week and around Xmas is only likely to be in the form of mild interludes / incurrsions. Happy days!
I personally believe that the cold spell will outdo 2010. The upper atmosphere is playing along better this year. Watch for upgrades mid week. I think we will see colder 850 forecast.
I agree that it is looking like we could get another cold spell mid Jan so much better than 2010.
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The pattern looks like its reloading at T240 on the ECM!!
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Is it me or is the ECM on wetterzentrale shown as the 12z event though its the 00z?
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What - you mean both runs - the 12Z as well hopefully not a trend.
What - you mean both runs - the 12Z as well hopefully not a trend.
I'm talking about the 06z. The 00z was better for cold but developments didn't look right to me after T96. I think the ECM and UKMO models have got a better grip of the situation, as per previous similar blocking setups.
Expect to see upgrades for cold middle of next week...
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Careful! I got shot down for saying as much earlier on!
It does certainly show possibly colder surface conditions, but Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun are much less wintry than the 00z, as we are in a much slacker flow. It may come later on (no doubt!), but this evolution does still mean that the potential wintry weather is put back from the formlerly more rock-solid "start" date of Friday 30. THat's all I'm saying.
The whole run is poor. Its going to be a mild outlier!
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The 06z is not as good for cold in the same timeframes as the previous run.
IMO we don't want to see perfect charts at this stage, remember the pattern is evolving so perfect charts now may lead to poorer runs nearer real time. I'm confident that we will see colder runs as we go into next week. This year will beat 2010 IMHO.
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Yes the ukmo the pick of the bunch maybe because it want go further than 144 thankfully couldn't take another slow evolution
JMA looks like the pick of the bunch to me. I'm sure we will see colder runs in the near future...
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Aye, but the NAO is only forecast to go negative because the model-runs are showing what the are...If the models back-off, so will the NAO's tendency to go negative.
Yeah I know but I'm expecting the models to show HLB and this will be reflected in future AO graphs. The run that you see touch -5 is where I'm expecting future output to go. In fact my prediction is -6 for early December. I don't think we can rule out a 2010 start to Winter at this stage. The signs are there again IMHO...
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Looks like the AO is heading negative. I'm expecting to see some superb cold runs appearing in the models next week, as we get closer to the end of the month.
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The GFS is disapointing for cold lovers this morning, everything looks further west around the 2nd/3rd of November and that prevents the colder air filtering over us. UKMO looks allot colder for the same timeframe with snow on higher ground possible.
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The latest GFS run looks like it is coming in line with the ECM, with the blocking further west. I'm interested to know how the HLB evolves in the coming weeks. Could be an eastly down the line?
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Is that a massive snow event in some places I can see on the 18Z. Battle ground like.
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WOW, maybe some early snowfall on the cards up north. I want to see these charts again mid December
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Arctic surge deflected eastwards
Yeah, one things for sure though, it won't look like that at T0, plenty of room for improvement. Could go the other way but it looks better for cold than yesterdays run. Things just need to move west a little, which I find odd because not to long ago things look like they could be to far west. Lots of changes to come I'm sure.
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The one plus is it wouldn't be overly cold, even if it was wet and cloudy
It wouldn't be cold for the UK but I think it's a good sign to see cold pools hiting europe so early in the season. Could be a sign of things to come I think.
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
GEM looks good for cold in its later output!