ICETAB
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Posts posted by ICETAB
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No worries
I remember the model tracker-!!
Note tonights ECM trending back on atlantic blocking at 192-
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Yeah ECM and GFS are like chalk and cheese in FI. I hope ECM has picked up on something because it was starting to look like a mild period was on its way.
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The 00Z has chucked out an absolute STONKER for FI!
Id love to see that chart at the end of Nov. Kind of a waste if it came off now
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AO & NAO forecasts start to tank negative...
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Intersting to see the AO NAO forecast looking so negative. Hope this continues into winter...
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ECM shows a cool outlook from next Monday. Below average with frost up north
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=0&mode=0&carte=1&run=0
Anyone hoping for a load of snow this winter will have fun trawling through tonights 12z CFS-
Some corkers in there all the way out to April
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=0&mode=0&carte=1&run=0
Anyone hoping for a load of snow this winter will have fun trawling through tonights 12z CFS-
Some corkers in there all the way out to April
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19th of Jan is looking good...
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I know it's a bit early in the year for this
, but I hope we start seeing this type of chart in the 144 time range come November. -
Four tropical systems on the go and angular momentum is responding.
Tendency in relative angular momentum is surging positive (increasing westerly influence) - note the increase in westerly winds across 30S and 30N:
http://www.esrl.noaa...d.sig.90day.gif
CPC have noted tonight growing ensemble mean agreement in the 6-10 and 8-14 day timeframes and this follows the ECM's lead from this morning and 06z and 12z GFS ensemble means beyond day 10 begin to develop anomalously low heights over the Arctic. Net result, increasing trend for mid latitude highs as tropical depressions get hoovered up by longwave troughs migrating through the mid-west and eastern Canada.
Do you expect angular momentum to remain positive as we go into winter? Will you be publishing a forecast soon?
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I'm going to st ives in cornwall next week. Am a right in saying that there is a glimmer of hope showing for this area between monday afternoon and friday. GFS looks the best bet, which is odd seens int was the ECM showing that ridge of high pressure a couple of days ago.
Not far to winter now... Lets hope its a cold one.
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Had mainly frozen rain this morning. It looked like it was turning to snow for a few minutes and then changed back. Not really got anything now. I can't see any snow for northwich today. Oh well, had a feeling it would be a none event here.
Temp = -0.7
Dew = -2
Wind = light breeze (3mph)
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Had mainly frozen rain this morning. It looked like it was turning to snow for a few minutes and then changed back. Not really got anything now. I can't see any snow for northwich today. Oh well, had a feeling it would be a none event here.
Temp = -0.7
Dew = -2
Wind = light breeze (3mph)
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Really hope so because this winter so far has been a real let down compared to the last. Normal winter service resumes, mild zonal mush with the odd cold interlude that amounts to nothing.
Not according to some of the models this morning. Could be a snow event next Wednesday and remaining cold. It's the GFS though so could very well be wrong
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As I've been saying all along, don't get your hopes up. Another nail in winters coffin if this goes t**** up.
You just wait for the Greenlad high. Give it 10 days.
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who said it was snowing in blackpool?
A friend. It doesn't look like it, going by the radar. In fact it looks like the band of precipitation is fragmenting quite allot as it moves towards us. Not a good sign. Met might be wrong on this one. We might get light snow, followed by heavy rain.
It looks good for snow in our area in about 10 days time.
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Can anyone verify that it is snowing heavy in blackpool?
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It's currently -3.8 with a dew point of -6. I wonder how long it will fall as snow later. I think it will be a quick event here. Maybe two hours. I just hope I get enough to make snowman with the kids!
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Could Macclesfield get any Snow later today?
Yes Macc will defo get snow, it may end up an all snow event there. Better than I'm gooing to get!
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Thanks. Looks like the temperature is set to fall. Mean failing to 0 at the end. Some cold members in there.
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Anyone have a link for the extended ECM ensembles? Someone gave me one the other day but lost it
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I suspect the 06z GFS is one of the milder ensembles again in FI. One might reach the conclusion that it is picking up a mild signal down the line. It certainly seems consistent in keeping the cold air away from the UK.
If we don't see the euros flipping back to a colder outlook by tomorrow afternoons runs I will loose hope for the cold snap turning into somthing more prolonged
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Does anyone have a link to the latest ECM ensembles?
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Everyone is down about the ECM output. It might end up being a mild outlier. When do its ensembles come out?
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But are most AO forecasts based on the GFS and GEFS?
You might be right. Does anyone know if ECM publish a AO forecast?
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I'm not sure if this has been brought up already, but the AO forecast is very poor again. It started forecast neutral/slightly positive over the past couple of days. This does not bode well for ECM to be closer to the mark. I suspect it will back away from northern blocking in the output tonight.
I hope I'm wrong...
Model Output Discussion October 2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
ECM 12z T144 looks nice for northern blocking!