matty lfc
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Posts posted by matty lfc
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Glorious winters morning up here,not a cloud in the sky.
According to last nights Welsh BBC forecast,i should have woken up to a light covering of snow!!!
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Just come back from walking the dog and it's noticably colder than it's been for a while.This will help with any precip tomorrow morning because yesterday,despite my height and nearly 7 hours of continuous snow,the ground temps were just a bit too high for it to settle.At a push,we had 2cm on the grass and nothing on the roads.A couple of degs colder and we would have been in snowmaggedon territory!!!
Got a good feeling about this weekend
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Saw a light covering from this mornings snow but nothing settled on the roads.Expect something similar tomorrow as temps are still a tad too high,in my opinion.
"battleground" snow tends to be the wet,big flake precip and disruptive accumulations are normally very brief affairs.
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Sorry most of us are so incredibly dull and boring to you then!
I am sure 99% of contributors to NW have a genuine interest/ love of weather and wish to inform other people.
There are naturally all different levels of knowledge and interest on the forums, and I feel that is a good thing. Don't think it terribly kind of you to put down 99% of contributors on here- that is most disparaging.
Brief moderate snow shower this morning after a hard frost, minimum -5.7c.
Apologies if that's too much technical jargon and data for you- I have been keeping weather records for almost 40 years, sorry if you find that so dull...it is a weather forum I thought it might be relevant and interesting.
Chill out,lad.
Andy's enthusiasm brims over with every post and are typed in simple terms with reference to various charts if needed and im sure that's what was meant in the post you are referring to with regard to some posts being a tad overly technical for people that are learning about how the weather works.
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Im also trying to learn off the model thread,which is fantastic,but you have to say that a lot of posters see a chart that is not particularly good for their area,beit London,Glasgow, Devon or Cardiff and they automatically write off the chart as downgrade etc.I'd love to see this thread offer a more general view of any interesting weather about to hit any region of the UK and perhaps save any localised negativity for the regional threads.
All in all,a superb website for anyone with the slightest interest in weather.
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Couple of beefy showers now.Very slight covering on grass.temp just above 1deg.
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Regarding the potential of next weeks northerly,we're either going to go out with a whimper or a bang and i've got a horrible feeling,even at my height,it's going to be a damp,sleety,sometimes wet snow affair because ground temps will be a tad too high.Could all change,and given the dreadful performances of the models this winter it probably will,but i've just got this nagging feeling that it'll be a bit too warm
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A few light flurries up here today and the forecast for the rest of the week,it has to be said,is pretty dull for Wales.Next week's northerly is way,way too far off to be interested in,imo.
What did surprise me today,however,were the temps.Barely got above 1deg and nowhere near the 5-6 deg forecast.
This isn't really a cold spell compared to last month lol tbh.
According to the model output guys,this one hasn't even started yet!!!
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Great stuff nick.I jst want to say thank you for your sublime no bias no hidden agenda analysis of the models.
Im sure i speak for the vast majority of NW members when i say that.
:lol:
Without doubt,i've learnt more about the models from Nick's posts than any others.Technical but understandable to newcomers like myself and always tries to put a realistic outlook on things,albeit good runs or bad.Been a great asset to my chart learning all winter.
Now,if only i could understand GP's posts!!!
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Dont know what to make of this but dont like the "not as bad as January" bit
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Cold,or very cold,spell of weather now pretty much locked in for next week and whilst Wales doesn't do particularly well out of an easterly,there should be enough cold air around to get the odd beefy shower or two.
Should we stock up on the bread and milk now before the insane panic buying starts!!??
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These past few day have shown that no matter how many zillions you pump into forecasting super computers,we are still no closer to giving accurate forecasts beyond 3 days,than we were 10years ago
Quite ludicrous shifts in patterns from all of the big 3 these past few days and it's utterly amazing that any business would actually pay for this nonsense
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Whilst i respect Andy,and his endless optimism,i really cant see any meaningful snow for south wales this week,even at my height.Cant rule out the odd flake in the heavier showers but ground temps will be way too high for anything to settle.I'll be really happy if im wrong,though!!!
Next week however.....................
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Very fine snow now and although there's a slight covering,ground temps are too high for it to settle for any length of time,imo
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very heavy snow shower up here now.Huge flakes.settling on roads
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All models have had their shaky periods this winter, and UKMO has only been just behind the ECM as best model, GFS has had some horror stories this winter.
Out of curiosity,do the other models have the financial backing that the UKMO receives?
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Regarding the Meto's refusal in bringing the easterly,i'd have to favour them over any other model at this time scale despite a very shaky few months.
I've just got this horrible feeling they've got this return of the atlantic next week spot on and there'll be much needed back slapping and respect back when they badly need it.
However,they get this wrong and at this timeframe,and there'll be very,very serious questions needing to be asked regarding their forecasters/models.An obsession with man made GW or the default setting of atlantic dominated recent winters may have messed up their models!!!
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Light dusting up here which is a bonus as was expecting a clear,frosty night
Sat evening could see SE wales get a few extra showers as well
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Spring starts on Monday according to the forecast in our local rag.
Lol quite possibly the worst forecast i've ever seen given the current charts and im a complete novice.He assume he gets paid for writing that drivel?
Sure,Tues and Weds may get a tad warmer,im talking 4,5,6 maybe 7degs but 13 and 14???!!!
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As so many on the model threads keep saying,lets get the cold first and worry about precip later.
After this fairly moderate northerly,any cold in the mid to long term is still very much up in the air
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Just opened the front door and it's blowing a gale - very weird this - nothing on XC weather or GFS maps for tonight - someone got this wrong may be!
Bit like that sunset yesterday evening.Very strange looking but absolutely stunning.
Been a fantastic winter so far.
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Has anyone else got a fairly brisk wind tonight? It seems to be blowing quite hard here at the moment yet GFS doesn't have much and even XC weather has hardly anything over Wales - admittedly I'm on the top of a mountain above Ponty but it just seems strange that's all!
Admittedly but I've known easterlies deliver quite hefty amounts of snow as well to Wales
Very windy up here although a tad milder than last few nights
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Im a complete novice to all this chart/model reading and whilst it's great fun and quite addictive,im still relying on memory for most of my forecasts.
From what i recall,a Northerly is not great for wales,especially a N/Easterly.We also dont get that much from an easterly,just very,very clod with the odd flurry.
It seems to me,we(south wales) always get our biggest falls from a battleground event from the sw
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The Meto's 5 day accuracy is at an all time low right now. there 3-5 day has changed again this morning , there advice regarding Monday that they have put out on the BBC has changed also. They are lucky if there getting a 24 hours forecast right. I know this is a complicated situation but were suppose to be advancing in forecasting not going backwards.
Rant over but all forecasts have done a total switch around from yesterday and there was no need for them forecasts yesterday .. all models were showing there raging Easterly wasn't going to happen.I find it ludicrous,and quite disturbing, that a lot of amateur model watchers on here can correctly call that the meto/BBC forecast is all wrong a full 24hrs before they realise they've made another mistake and backtrack accordingly!!!
All this talk about having "super computers" and access to models we can only dream of etc just hides the fact that because of atlantic driven zonality these past few winters,the Meto have become used to forecasting by default.A lot of the "feeling" has gone out of their forecasts and they're at a pretty low ebb right now in terms of accuracy and respect.Dont even get me started on their obseesion with man made GW.
As for the models,i think we'll have slightly below temps next week,mainly dry,with the odd wintry shower for the Eastern half of the UK.........nothing to get too excited about,in my opinion
Rant over but all forecasts have done a total switch around from yesterday and there was no need for them forecasts yesterday .. all models were showing there raging Easterly wasn't going to happen.
Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
-2 according to the car and quite misty looking up here.
Im expecting at least a dusting by morning.