ZONE 51

i expected some sparks over in france by now..but as im reading on here the mix is starting and should soon see something bloom over france..i expect now for some activity arriving on s-coast by early hrs

on hold until after WCUP

couple of cells south of IOW r they thundery?

the first interesting night for ages... at least we have something to track..i wont even mind if i have distance display..(AS long as it coming my way) 0-: really tho a distant light show would be great

French storms do have a passport tonight...0-:

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i was thinking some cells would get going over france and the channel early evening and cluster together moving inland

any cells heading across channel ? cant see sat at moment..couple may do later i think Amazing thos massive storms over europe, taking up an area of sat the size of the uk. sunday night into monday looks like its englands turn to take up an huge area of sat, with an MCS! southern england/SE then east anglia the midlands and towards eastern areas like as far as lincs maybe, cant wait for sunday eve model runs..im getting excited..meto know its going to not miss us.. 0:

ive circled an area i think gives some a risk of thunderstorms late eve/overnight for SE maybe other areas

dry thunderstorms if anyone wants to read up on what a dry thunderstorm is heres a good page.. it is raining in the storm but dont reach the surface.

if there is a possibility of storms being imported across SE (overnight tonight)then could they be what is called (dry thunderstorms)and thats why NMM shows little ppn ? maybe some intense single cells, if one went through say gatwick/crawley i would have a distance light show

so could be hotter for SE saturday and after a very muggy night its going to start rising quick im thinking a 33c point 5 exact in a hot spot by 5pm saturday..

im not going to give up hope, i know its quite thunderwise here in the south and se ,and surrey normaly would of had or seen tstorms by this time in the summer, its a quite one but i think bk to summer2006 was hot and dry with even river thames at record low, it was the calmest and lowest i had ever seen it, then the first storms arrived mid july ,very violent day storm and flash floods ,think it was a cold front from west hitting the heatwave, was frequently verywarm and thundery after for wks.

might there be storms imported from n-france a head of cold front on saturday night for SE and maybe other areas?

TORRO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK issued on Friday July 9 2010. A broad upper trough to the west of the British Isles will sharpen as it approaches during the next 36-48 hours. A frontal wave will develop in response to this, and deepen into a surface depression, which is then progged to track NNE through western Eire and into western Scotland through Saturday. Close to the track of the depression, weak instability is expected to develop in a fairly strongly sheared environment. Cloud will be rather extensive but any breaks will allow somewhat larger instability to develop locally across Eire and N Ireland. An extensive area of rainfall will accompany the frontal system across Eire, N Ireland and Scotland, although a few embedded thunderstorms are expected too. The highest risk of severe weather appears to be across Eire/N Ireland, where isolated tornadoes and damaging wind is possible. A lower risk for Scotland, N Wales and N England, but this could increase through the evening. The extensive cloudiness associated with the warm sector (tropical maritime origin) along fairly neutral lapse rates currently indicate the overall risk is fairly low. However, the situation will be monitored tomorrow, and if cloud breaks more than currently expected in the warm sector, the overall risk would likely be somewhat higher. Forecaster: RPK.TORRO

ireland and later scotland might see thunderstorms saturday(tommorow) see nicks post in convective thread could get very interesting for some.

i thought there would be a lot of posts about this as its interesting , exciting , fun , and very scientific.whats others thoughts?...

whats the chances of this feature moving a little further in for the SE ?

thursday night thundery north? looks like thats the wrong night sorry was half asleep when typed it...gfs shows a chance saturday late for parts of the north.

wow...see the night temps, would need to sleep outside..are these normal temps or are they an extreme for those areas?

Becoming hot in the se and humid 30/32c at weekend possible with warm muggy air pushing up north with thundery weather developing in north as system moves in later thrs night and in se and maybe south over wkend altho not same features.

sStorms-bk-on-for-the-SE as-UKMO-model-is-now-in-the- same-boat-

A hot clear sunny day with strong gusty cyclonic wind a dusty large car part would be a good area to find these dust spinners, the ground temp would be hotter than the air several feet above the ground a breeze comes from one direction and mixes with a breeze from another direction lifting the ground air and spins into a dust storm !

take a look at friday night / saturday for N-IRELAND ( belfast) area - on meto site met office , at least they have the lightning symbol checked GFS data it does look good for thundery shrs maybe storms for some area of N-IRELAND

i wont get excited yet this time , but GFS does show some impressive energy here , MCS going through kent most likely at this stage but 4 days away things can shift east , but i cant see much thats going to move it east much more , i think this is our best chance out of all the close shaves so far this season .