ZONE 51

Arctic blast next week? I planted big ben in the scene to imagine what we might expect next week..

I had posted in the Atlantic thread asking about tuesday, now i have read this ive got the idea of what's possible tuesday, so some active squally weather developing through tuesday and tue night.

Had a sinus op(nose), got some catching up to do.. The BBC weather at the weekend said some squally winds on tuesday night with thunder crossing all areas, but on monday they didn't mention it? sounds interesting and they showed a tight bend in the isobars, i'm sure i will read about it soon if it's still on!

It's how they know if they do that we need to find out. Another thing is that the whole summer here has been noticably cold nights, only a few warm nights, and many i could see my breath! There are many factors and reasons why i expect a cold late autumn and winter, i'm finding it difficult to actually find indicators of a warm autumn/winter, i will add all this in a more informative post at some point and what i have been looking at for my forecast i posted in the seasonal thread. It would be good if more posters could do an autumn/winter forecast, just write what you expect, you don't have to give reasons or any data(this can put some off posting a forecast) maybe break the months into two halfs, or say early,mid,late month. Whatever way you do it please have a go!

It won't prevent a cold winter. PDO is in cold phase.On a note from nature, something i spotted tuesday evening that was interesting, a large amount of birds flying northwest high up, i remember the same thing around this time 2010, but not 2011, and also the squirrels are running around very active, this also in 2010 not 2011, i think this means something.

I would imagine quite a lot building up over the hours..

I have seen 3 flashes on the east horizon! about 10mins ago. Some nice convective cloud bubbling up out there.

And Netweather..http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Recent Lightning activity in Kent as shown on the chart: We can expect some more thundery action to develop overnight across the south.. It's not over yet and more significant flooding is possible, even in areas not yet seen a lot of rainfall is at risk through tonight and wednesday, 2230pm radar(above) This is NAE model for 0600hrs-1200hrs, alot of heavy and thundery rainfall, spreading across to the south and east.

Not finished yet, just might be a sting in it's tail..We can expect everything but snow i think.. what if it was all snow! well it just does not work that way, i always say it can hiss it down with rain but when it comes to snow it rarely does large amounts.

Lightning in Channel at around 0015am.(.a few strikes where my symbol is placed) Can expect more of a swing into the inland SE later as the storm low shifts and drags them in like a magnet

Gales blowing, very fast moving clouds, i think a chance of night lightning tonight, could see some action develop in the Channel and head inland overnight and especially tomorow.For today the gales or storm force winds continue.

I'm thinking about the thunderstorm risk in all this! i think we have quite a good chance of seeing some. For the winds we can expect it to get very rough through monday with gales, maybe severe gale force in exposed places. There is a risk also of a change in the deepening of the storm and the track, so it could be stronger.

Inportant note here on our developing storm system http://www.estofex.org/ - (new update this evening)

Just acting like a tropical storm, it does look amazing, wait till this moves in it's going to be quite an event. Could say its only just started? those winds are going to energize and whip up big time.

Edited a bit off your post. I would estimate around 15-30mm maybe more in the brighter ecoes, it went through my part of Surrey and it was extreme and that was with the red returns, imagine the purple and white areas!

Look at the difference in upper temps! yellow warmer, dark green cold..

Amazing this, the ring of the rain! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

As you all most likely know by now a Storm is on it's way to cause distruption to ALL AREAS over the next few days, please keep up to date with the warnings and forecasts, the Storm starts today, prolonged heavy and for some torrential rainfall causing flooding, very strong and potentially damaging winds are likely to develop, trees are in full leaf and some trees maybe weak, distruption to transport and outdoor events are likely from the rain/wind events from this deep low pressure weather system, there is also over the next few days a risk of thunderstorms and squalls.

The uncertainty of track and intensity of this potential deep low or storm is a concern, looking at the data/models i'm worried, and of course very interested. This is something that is quite rare to occur, to develop the way it could and the types of interactions that are possible, and the area of these developments. What we could be looking at is a fast development very close to the time of landfall, as things interact(temperatures/Jet).

Maybe Curiosity work something up

My worry is that the models are not coming up with a solution yet. And a concern for what could turn up. I'm interested in this, could it be to do with the sea surface temperatures in that zone?

Certainly an interesting development, feeling a bit concerned seeing whats possible and especially as trees are in leaf, and with the large rainfall possible we could see flooding, this is a rather complex situation, and with the models getting a handle on things as we get nearer the weekend then we should know where the worst of this potential storm would hit, the movements of Tropical storm Nadine are vital to the developments of the new system-and it's this that could be fuelled into a storm and head up from the south to our shores this weekend, with all the energy available down there i would not say its not possible for a strong wind event, a lot of moisture will be in the new weather system when it develops and this leads to lots of rainfall. I expect this new system to develop, but the question is the track. Then after that what happens with Tropical storm Nadine..

That precipitation spike from the 23rd is starting to look like the Shard